Language:English
Arthur Fils v Ignacio Buse
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Arthur Fils (Local)
Prediction 81.51%1.23fair odd
EV -3.00%
Edge -2.52%
Kelly -15.81%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.19
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.10%81.52%81.60%84.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.161.161.1989.29%86.30%86.21%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ignacio Buse (Visit)
Prediction 18.49%5.41fair odd
EV +11.87%
Edge +1.96%
Kelly +2.35%
Growth +0.279%
assuming max odds 6.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.74%18.48%18.40%19.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.175.206.0521.05%19.36%19.23%16.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arthur Fils (Local): 81.51%; Ignacio Buse (Visit): 18.49%. For Ignacio Buse (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.41. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.87%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.26%EV -7.90%E -6.99%K -60.73%G +0.000% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.74%EV +11.87%E +1.96%K +2.35%G +0.279% | 5.0% | 2026-04-24 01:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.93%EV -7.90%E -6.99%K -60.73%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.07%EV +9.10%E +1.54%K +1.86%G +0.169% | 5.4% | 2026-04-24 01:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.87%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 5.66I 17.67%NM 17.13%EV +4.66%E +0.823%K +1.00%G +0.047% | 3.1% | 2026-04-24 03:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.34%EV -3.82%E -3.24%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.66%EV +1.70%E +0.309%K +0.378%G +0.006% | 2.9% | 2026-04-22 15:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV +1.70%E +0.309%K +0.378%G +0.006% | 3.7% | 2026-04-23 12:14 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -7.08%E -6.21%K -50.57%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +1.70%E +0.309%K +0.378%G +0.006% | 5.9% | 2026-04-24 01:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -7.90%E -6.99%K -60.73%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV +1.70%E +0.309%K +0.378%G +0.006% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 08:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -8.71%E -7.78%K -72.58%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV +1.70%E +0.309%K +0.378%G +0.006% | 7.5% | 2026-04-24 01:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.94%EV -3.00%E -2.52%K -15.81%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.06%EV -0.147%E -0.027%K -0.033%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-04-24 03:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.65%EV -3.82%E -3.24%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.35%EV -2.92%E -0.556%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-24 01:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.65%EV -3.82%E -3.24%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.35%EV -2.92%E -0.556%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-24 01:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -5.45%E -4.70%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -2.92%E -0.556%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-24 01:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -6.26%E -5.45%K -41.77%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -2.92%E -0.556%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 15:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -6.26%E -5.45%K -41.77%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -2.92%E -0.556%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-22 16:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -3.85%E -0.740%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 09:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -3.85%E -0.740%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 09:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -3.85%E -0.740%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 09:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -3.85%E -0.740%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 13:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.45%E -4.70%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -3.85%E -0.740%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 12:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.45%E -4.70%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -3.85%E -0.740%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.45%E -4.70%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -3.85%E -0.740%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 09:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.45%E -4.70%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -3.85%E -0.740%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.45%E -4.70%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -3.85%E -0.740%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 09:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.45%E -4.70%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -3.85%E -0.740%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.45%E -4.70%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -3.85%E -0.740%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.45%E -4.70%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -3.85%E -0.740%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 09:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.45%E -4.70%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -3.85%E -0.740%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.45%E -4.70%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -3.85%E -0.740%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.45%E -4.70%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -3.85%E -0.740%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.45%E -4.70%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -3.85%E -0.740%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.45%E -4.70%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -3.85%E -0.740%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.45%E -4.70%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -3.85%E -0.740%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.57%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 5.18I 19.31%NM 18.43%EV -4.22%E -0.814%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 09:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.60%EV -6.26%E -5.45%K -41.77%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -5.69%E -1.12%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 09:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.60%EV -6.26%E -5.45%K -41.77%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -5.69%E -1.12%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 10:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.60%EV -6.26%E -5.45%K -41.77%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -5.69%E -1.12%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.82%EV -8.71%E -7.78%K -72.58%G +0.000% | 5.04I 19.84%NM 18.18%EV -6.80%E -1.35%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-22 14:41 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -3.82%E -3.24%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -7.54%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 15:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -7.54%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-24 01:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -7.54%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-22 15:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -7.54%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-22 18:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -7.54%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-22 19:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -7.54%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-22 19:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -7.54%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-23 06:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -7.54%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-24 02:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.45%E -4.70%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -7.54%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-22 17:01 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.45%E -4.70%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -7.54%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.26%E -5.45%K -41.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -7.54%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 09:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.26%E -5.45%K -41.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -7.54%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.08%E -6.21%K -50.57%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -7.54%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-22 19:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.08%E -6.21%K -50.57%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -7.54%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-23 10:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -7.90%E -6.99%K -60.73%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -7.54%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-22 15:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -10.32%E -2.13%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-23 23:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.67%EV -6.26%E -5.45%K -41.77%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -11.24%E -2.34%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-23 09:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.67%EV -6.26%E -5.45%K -41.77%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -11.24%E -2.34%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-23 09:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -3.82%E -3.24%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -12.17%E -2.56%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 15:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -4.63%E -3.96%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -12.17%E -2.56%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-23 09:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -6.26%E -5.45%K -41.77%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -12.17%E -2.56%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-24 01:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 0.9% | 2026-04-24 03:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 0.9% | 2026-04-24 03:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 0.9% | 2026-04-24 03:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 0.9% | 2026-04-23 21:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.21% | 5.85I 17.09%NM 16.79% | 1.8% | 2026-04-24 03:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.68% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.32% | 2.1% | 2026-04-24 03:15 |