Language:English
Tommy Paul v Luciano Darderi
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tommy Paul (Local)
Prediction 54.96%1.82fair odd
EV -2.18%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -2.79%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.78
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.62%55.13%54.83%57.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.711.701.7862.50%58.59%58.82%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Luciano Darderi (Visit)
Prediction 45.04%2.22fair odd
EV -0.454%
Edge -0.205%
Kelly -0.375%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.11%44.87%45.17%46.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.132.102.2150.00%46.94%47.62%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tommy Paul (Local): 54.96%; Luciano Darderi (Visit): 45.04%. For Luciano Darderi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.22. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.21, with an expected value of -0.454%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -2.18%E -1.22%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -6.31%E -3.03%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -2.18%E -1.22%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -7.21%E -3.50%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.28%E -1.86%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.41%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.28%E -1.86%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.41%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-10 15:33 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.81%EV -3.83%E -2.19%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 44.19%EV -0.454%E -0.205%K -0.375%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -3.83%E -2.19%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -1.81%E -0.828%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.83%E -2.19%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.41%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.38%E -2.51%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.16%E -1.47%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.38%E -2.51%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.16%E -1.47%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -4.38%E -2.51%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.51%E -2.13%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.38%E -2.51%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.41%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.38%E -2.51%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.41%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.38%E -2.51%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.41%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.38%E -2.51%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.41%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.38%E -2.51%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.41%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.38%E -2.51%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.66%E -3.74%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.38%E -2.51%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.66%E -3.74%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.38%E -2.51%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.66%E -3.74%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.53%EV -4.93%E -2.85%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.47%EV -2.71%E -1.25%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -4.93%E -2.85%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -4.96%E -2.35%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.93%E -2.85%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.41%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.93%E -2.85%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.41%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.93%E -2.85%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.41%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.93%E -2.85%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.41%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.93%E -2.85%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.41%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -4.93%E -2.85%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -6.31%E -3.03%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -4.93%E -2.85%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.91%E -4.96%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.47%E -3.18%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.51%E -2.13%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.47%EV -6.02%E -3.52%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.53%EV -4.06%E -1.90%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.02%E -3.52%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.41%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -6.57%E -3.87%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -4.51%E -2.13%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.57%E -3.87%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.41%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.57%E -3.87%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.41%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.57%E -3.87%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.41%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.57%E -3.87%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.41%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.57%E -3.87%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.41%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.57%E -3.87%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.66%E -3.74%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.57%E -3.87%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.66%E -3.74%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.57%E -3.87%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.66%E -3.74%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -7.12%E -4.22%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -3.16%E -1.47%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -7.12%E -4.22%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -5.41%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.904%E -0.411%K -0.754%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.904%E -0.411%K -0.754%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.904%E -0.411%K -0.754%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.904%E -0.411%K -0.754%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.904%E -0.411%K -0.754%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.904%E -0.411%K -0.754%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.904%E -0.411%K -0.754%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.904%E -0.411%K -0.754%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.904%E -0.411%K -0.754%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.904%E -0.411%K -0.754%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.904%E -0.411%K -0.754%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.904%E -0.411%K -0.754%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.904%E -0.411%K -0.754%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.904%E -0.411%K -0.754%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.904%E -0.411%K -0.754%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -9.32%E -5.65%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -1.81%E -0.828%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -9.32%E -5.65%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19%EV -2.26%E -1.04%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -9.32%E -5.65%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19%EV -2.26%E -1.04%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -9.32%E -5.65%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -5.41%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-10 15:34 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -12.07%E -7.54%K -20.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -0.904%E -0.411%K -0.754%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06% | 0.4% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06% | 0.4% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06% | 0.4% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06% | 0.4% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.72% | 2.1% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08% | 2.2% | 2026-05-10 15:35 |