Language:English
Rafael Jodar v Luciano Darderi
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Rafael Jodar (Local)
Prediction 65.40%1.53fair odd
EV -1.90%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -3.81%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.41%65.42%65.48%67.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.451.441.5071.43%69.20%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Luciano Darderi (Visit)
Prediction 34.60%2.89fair odd
EV -0.347%
Edge -0.120%
Kelly -0.184%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.88
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.71%34.58%34.52%36.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.732.752.8838.46%36.57%36.36%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rafael Jodar (Local): 65.40%; Luciano Darderi (Visit): 34.60%. For Luciano Darderi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.89. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.88, with an expected value of -0.347%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.12%EV -1.90%E -1.27%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.88%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%EV -1.90%E -1.27%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%EV -8.65%E -3.28%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.90%E -1.27%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.04%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-13 20:37 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -2.56%E -1.72%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV -7.27%E -2.71%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.25%EV -3.21%E -2.17%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.75%EV -7.96%E -2.99%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.97%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%EV -1.38%E -0.486%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-13 20:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.65%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 2.81I 35.59%NM 34.35%EV -2.77%E -0.985%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-13 20:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.65%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 2.81I 35.59%NM 34.35%EV -2.77%E -0.985%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-13 20:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-13 20:44 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-13 20:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -4.52%E -3.10%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV -4.15%E -1.50%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -4.52%E -3.10%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -4.52%E -3.10%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -10.04%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-13 20:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-13 20:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-13 20:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -1.73%E -0.609%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-13 20:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-13 20:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-13 20:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-13 20:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-13 20:44 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-13 20:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.34%E -3.57%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.34%E -3.57%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-13 20:44 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.34%E -3.57%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.34%E -3.57%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -10.04%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-13 20:37 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -10.04%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-13 20:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.48%E -4.53%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.38%E -0.486%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-13 20:44 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.48%E -4.53%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.48%E -4.53%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-13 20:41 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -7.13%E -5.02%K -16.99%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-13 20:44 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -7.13%E -5.02%K -16.99%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -7.13%E -5.02%K -16.99%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-13 20:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -7.13%E -5.02%K -16.99%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -7.13%E -5.02%K -16.99%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.84%EV -7.79%E -5.52%K -19.00%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.16%EV -10.04%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -8.44%E -6.03%K -21.11%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -0.347%E -0.120%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-13 20:43 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.44%E -6.03%K -21.11%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.44%E -6.03%K -21.11%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-13 20:44 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.00%EV -8.44%E -6.03%K -21.11%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -10.04%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-13 20:41 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 66.07% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.93% | 0.2% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 66.07% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.93% | 0.2% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 66.07% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.93% | 0.2% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.61% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.39% | 0.3% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.06% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.94% | 2.3% | 2026-05-13 20:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.44% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 33.56% | 2.4% | 2026-05-13 20:43 |