La escuela de los momios

Rafael Jodar v Luciano Darderi

Inicio: 2026-05-13 20:50 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

63 corredores (23 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Rafael Jodar (Local)

Predicción 65.40%1.53momio equitativo
EV -1.90%
Ventaja -1.27%
Kelly -3.81%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
63.41%65.42%65.48%67.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.401.451.441.5071.43%69.20%69.44%66.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Luciano Darderi (Visitante)

Predicción 34.60%2.89momio equitativo
EV -0.347%
Ventaja -0.120%
Kelly -0.184%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.88

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.71%34.58%34.52%36.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.602.732.752.8838.46%36.57%36.36%34.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (63 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.50I 66.67%NM 65.12%EV -1.90%E -1.27%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.88%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-13 20:45
1xBet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%EV -1.90%E -1.27%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%EV -8.65%E -3.28%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-13 20:45
William Hill1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.90%E -1.27%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.04%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-13 20:37
FanDuel1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -2.56%E -1.72%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV -7.27%E -2.71%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-13 20:45
SportsBet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.25%EV -3.21%E -2.17%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.75%EV -7.96%E -2.99%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:45
Coolbet1.47I 68.03%NM 65.97%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%EV -1.38%E -0.486%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-13 20:44
LowVig.ag1.47I 68.03%NM 65.65%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.35%EV -2.77%E -0.985%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-13 20:44
BetOnline.ag1.47I 68.03%NM 65.65%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.35%EV -2.77%E -0.985%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-13 20:44
Winamax (DE)1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-13 20:45
theScore Bet1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-13 20:45
BetUS1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-13 20:44
BetAnything1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-13 20:34
DraftKings1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -4.52%E -3.10%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV -4.15%E -1.50%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-13 20:45
Marathon Bet1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -4.52%E -3.10%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-13 20:45
TAB1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -4.52%E -3.10%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -10.04%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-13 20:45
Unibet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-13 20:45
Hard Rock Bet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-13 20:45
Betway1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-13 20:45
Unibet (UK)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-13 20:45
Unibet (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-13 20:39
Winamax (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-13 20:45
ReBet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-13 20:39
Betsson1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-13 20:45
NordicBet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-13 20:44
PlayUp1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-13 20:45
GTbets1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -1.73%E -0.609%K -0.941%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-13 20:39
LeoVegas (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:44
Unibet (NL)1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:44
Casumo1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:44
TABtouch1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:44
Unibet (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:45
LeoVegas1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:45
Grosvenor1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:45
BetRivers1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:45
betPARX1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:45
Svenska Spel1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:45
ATG (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:45
Bally Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:45
Codere (IT)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-13 20:45
BetMGM1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-13 20:44
Fanatics1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-13 20:45
PointsBet (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-13 20:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-13 20:45
Neds1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-13 20:45
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.34%E -3.57%K -5.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-13 20:45
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.34%E -3.57%K -5.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-13 20:44
888sport (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.34%E -3.57%K -5.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-13 20:45
Mr Green (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.34%E -3.57%K -5.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-13 20:45
Bet Victor1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -10.04%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-13 20:37
Everygame1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -10.04%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-13 20:44
Bet Right1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.48%E -4.53%K -15.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.38%E -0.486%K -0.748%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-13 20:44
PMU (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.48%E -4.53%K -15.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-13 20:45
NetBet (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.48%E -4.53%K -15.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-13 20:41
Betr (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -7.13%E -5.02%K -16.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-13 20:44
Tipico (DE)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -7.13%E -5.02%K -16.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-13 20:45
Caesars1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -7.13%E -5.02%K -16.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-13 20:44
Virgin Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -7.13%E -5.02%K -16.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-13 20:45
LiveScore Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -7.13%E -5.02%K -16.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-13 20:45
Fliff1.41I 70.92%NM 64.84%EV -7.79%E -5.52%K -19.00%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.16%EV -10.04%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-13 20:45
BoyleSports1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -8.44%E -6.03%K -21.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -0.347%E -0.120%K -0.184%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-13 20:43
Ladbrokes (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.44%E -6.03%K -21.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-13 20:45
Coral1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.44%E -6.03%K -21.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-13 20:44
Betclic (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.00%EV -8.44%E -6.03%K -21.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -10.04%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-13 20:41
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.51I 66.23%NM 66.07%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.93%0.2%2026-05-13 20:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.51I 66.23%NM 66.07%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.93%0.2%2026-05-13 20:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.51I 66.23%NM 66.07%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.93%0.2%2026-05-13 20:45
Matchbook1.52I 65.79%NM 65.61%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.39%0.3%2026-05-13 20:45
Smarkets1.48I 67.57%NM 66.06%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.94%2.3%2026-05-13 20:45
Novig1.47I 68.03%NM 66.44%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.56%2.4%2026-05-13 20:43