StandardmodellInterkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Rafael Jodar v Luciano Darderi

Matchstart: 2026-05-13 20:50 UTC

Slutodds — de beräknade sannolikheterna och väntevärdet från de sista odds som registrerades före matchstart, enligt den valda modellen. Matchen har börjat, så siffrorna är inte aktuella realtidsvärden. Bedöm tillförlitligheten hos varje modells sannolikhetsprognoser mot utfallen i samtliga avgjorda matcher →

Matchresultat

63 spelbolag (23 i analysen )

Beräknad sannolikhet för varje utfall enligt modellen: Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Rafael Jodar (Hemma)

Prognos 65.40%1.53rättvist odds
EV -1.90%
Fördel -1.27%
Kelly -3.81%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 1.50

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
63.41%65.42%65.48%67.29%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
1.401.451.441.5071.43%69.20%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Luciano Darderi (Borta)

Prognos 34.60%2.89rättvist odds
EV -0.347%
Fördel -0.120%
Kelly -0.184%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 2.88

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
32.71%34.58%34.52%36.59%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
2.602.732.752.8838.46%36.57%36.36%34.72%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Vid de sista oddsen före start uppskattade Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista) för Matchresultat: Rafael Jodar (Hemma): 65.40%; Luciano Darderi (Borta): 34.60%. För Luciano Darderi (Borta) motsvarade uppskattningen ett rättvist decimalodds på 2.89. Inget kvalificerat spelbolag erbjöd slutodds över den nivån: bästa odds var 2.88, med väntevärdet -0.347%; det gav inget positivt väntevärde.

Spelbolagsodds (63 spelbolag)

Vi är inte knutna till något spelbolag och får ingen ersättning för transaktioner som genomförs hos dem.

SpelbolagHemma ▼BortaMarginalUppdaterat
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 65.12%EV -1.90%E -1.27%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.88%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-13 20:45
1xBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%EV -1.90%E -1.27%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%EV -8.65%E -3.28%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-13 20:45
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.90%E -1.27%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.04%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-13 20:37
FanDuel🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -2.56%E -1.72%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV -7.27%E -2.71%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-13 20:45
SportsBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.25%EV -3.21%E -2.17%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.75%EV -7.96%E -2.99%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:45
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.97%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%EV -1.38%E -0.486%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-13 20:44
LowVig.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.65%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.35%EV -2.77%E -0.985%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-13 20:44
BetOnline.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.65%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.35%EV -2.77%E -0.985%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-13 20:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-13 20:45
theScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-13 20:45
BetUS🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-13 20:44
BetAnything🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-13 20:34
DraftKings🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -4.52%E -3.10%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV -4.15%E -1.50%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-13 20:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -4.52%E -3.10%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-13 20:45
TAB🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -4.52%E -3.10%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -10.04%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-13 20:45
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-13 20:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-13 20:45
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-13 20:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-13 20:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-13 20:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-13 20:45
ReBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-13 20:39
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-13 20:45
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-13 20:44
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-13 20:45
GTbets🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -1.73%E -0.609%K -0.941%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-13 20:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:44
Unibet (NL)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:44
Casumo🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:44
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:44
Unibet (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:45
LeoVegas🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:45
Grosvenor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:45
BetRivers🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:45
betPARX🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:45
Bally Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-13 20:45
BetMGM🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-13 20:44
Fanatics🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-13 20:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-13 20:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-13 20:45
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-13 20:45
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.34%E -3.57%K -5.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-13 20:45
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.34%E -3.57%K -5.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-13 20:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.34%E -3.57%K -5.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-13 20:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.34%E -3.57%K -5.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-13 20:45
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -10.04%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-13 20:37
Everygame🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -5.83%E -4.05%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -10.04%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-13 20:44
Bet Right🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.48%E -4.53%K -15.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.38%E -0.486%K -0.748%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-13 20:44
PMU (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.48%E -4.53%K -15.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-13 20:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.48%E -4.53%K -15.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-13 20:41
Betr (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -7.13%E -5.02%K -16.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-13 20:44
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -7.13%E -5.02%K -16.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-13 20:45
Caesars🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -7.13%E -5.02%K -16.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-13 20:44
Virgin Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -7.13%E -5.02%K -16.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-13 20:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -7.13%E -5.02%K -16.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-13 20:45
Fliff🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.84%EV -7.79%E -5.52%K -19.00%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.16%EV -10.04%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-13 20:45
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -8.44%E -6.03%K -21.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -0.347%E -0.120%K -0.184%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-13 20:43
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.44%E -6.03%K -21.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-13 20:45
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.44%E -6.03%K -21.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.57%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-13 20:44
Betclic (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.00%EV -8.44%E -6.03%K -21.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -10.04%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-13 20:41
Marginal = Marginal · I = Implicit sannolikhet · NM = Marginalrensad sannolikhet · EV = Väntevärde · E = Fördel · K = Kelly-kriteriet · G = Spelkapitalets tillväxt

Uppdaterat anger när respektive spelbolag senast ändrade sitt odds. En äldre tidpunkt betyder därför att oddset inte har rört sig, inte att det är inaktuellt. Spelbolag som inte har observerats under de senaste cirka 15 minuterna utesluts normalt; endast om dataflödet för en hel marknad tystnar visas i stället de senast registrerade oddsen.

Spelbörser (6)

SpelbolagHemmaBortaMarginal ▲Uppdaterat
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.51I 66.23%NM 66.07%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.93%0.2%2026-05-13 20:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.51I 66.23%NM 66.07%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.93%0.2%2026-05-13 20:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.51I 66.23%NM 66.07%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.93%0.2%2026-05-13 20:45
Matchbook1.52I 65.79%NM 65.61%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.39%0.3%2026-05-13 20:45
Smarkets1.48I 67.57%NM 66.06%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.94%2.3%2026-05-13 20:45
Novig1.47I 68.03%NM 66.44%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.56%2.4%2026-05-13 20:43