Language:English
Rafael Jodar v Learner Tien
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Rafael Jodar (Local)
Prediction 76.55%1.31fair odd
EV -2.01%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -7.19%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.70%76.52%76.34%78.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.241.251.2883.33%80.42%80.00%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Learner Tien (Visit)
Prediction 23.45%4.26fair odd
EV +2.00%
Edge +0.460%
Kelly +0.598%
Growth +0.012%
assuming max odds 4.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.90%23.48%23.66%25.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.994.004.3526.67%25.03%25.00%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rafael Jodar (Local): 76.55%; Learner Tien (Visit): 23.45%. For Learner Tien (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.26. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.00%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.68%EV -4.31%E -3.45%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%EV +2.00%E +0.460%K +0.598%G +0.012% | 3.0% | 2026-05-12 10:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -6.61%E -5.42%K -30.03%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV +2.00%E +0.460%K +0.598%G +0.012% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 10:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -5.84%E -4.75%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV +0.830%E +0.193%K +0.251%G +0.002% | 4.6% | 2026-05-12 10:14 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.61%E -5.42%K -30.03%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV +0.830%E +0.193%K +0.251%G +0.002% | 5.2% | 2026-05-12 07:34 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.03%EV -2.78%E -2.19%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.97%EV -0.108%E -0.025%K -0.033%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-05-12 10:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.43%EV -5.84%E -4.75%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 4.22I 23.70%NM 22.57%EV -1.05%E -0.248%K -0.325%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 10:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.61%E -5.42%K -30.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -1.52%E -0.361%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-12 10:14 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.61%E -5.42%K -30.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -1.52%E -0.361%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-12 10:18 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -8.14%E -6.78%K -40.69%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -1.52%E -0.361%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-12 08:14 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -5.08%E -4.09%K -21.15%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -2.69%E -0.648%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-12 05:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.08%E -4.09%K -21.15%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.86%E -0.941%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 10:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.08%E -4.09%K -21.15%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.86%E -0.941%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 10:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.08%E -4.09%K -21.15%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.86%E -0.941%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 10:14 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.08%E -4.09%K -21.15%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.86%E -0.941%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 10:14 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.61%E -5.42%K -30.03%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -3.86%E -0.941%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-12 10:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.56%EV -5.08%E -4.09%K -21.15%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.44%EV -5.03%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-12 10:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.23%EV -3.55%E -2.81%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 4.04I 24.75%NM 23.77%EV -5.27%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-12 05:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.23%EV -3.55%E -2.81%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 4.04I 24.75%NM 23.77%EV -5.27%E -1.30%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-12 05:43 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.24%EV -4.31%E -3.45%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.76%EV -5.97%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-12 10:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -2.78%E -2.19%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-12 07:14 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.31%E -3.45%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 10:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.31%E -3.45%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 09:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.31%E -3.45%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 07:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.31%E -3.45%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 07:44 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.31%E -3.45%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 07:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.31%E -3.45%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 07:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.31%E -3.45%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 05:44 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.08%E -4.09%K -21.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-12 10:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.08%E -4.09%K -21.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-12 05:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.08%E -4.09%K -21.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-12 10:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.08%E -4.09%K -21.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-12 07:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.08%E -4.09%K -21.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-12 10:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -8.14%E -6.78%K -40.69%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.20%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-12 10:19 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -3.55%E -2.81%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.38%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-11 20:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -3.55%E -2.81%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.38%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-12 07:14 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -3.55%E -2.81%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.38%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-12 07:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -3.55%E -2.81%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.38%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-12 07:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -3.55%E -2.81%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.38%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-12 07:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -3.55%E -2.81%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.38%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-12 07:14 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -3.55%E -2.81%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.38%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-12 07:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -3.55%E -2.81%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.38%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-12 07:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -3.55%E -2.81%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.38%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-12 07:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -3.55%E -2.81%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.38%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-12 07:14 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -3.55%E -2.81%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.38%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-12 07:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -3.55%E -2.81%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.38%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-12 07:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -3.55%E -2.81%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.38%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-12 07:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -3.55%E -2.81%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.38%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-12 07:14 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -5.84%E -4.75%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -7.38%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-12 10:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -2.01%E -1.57%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV -8.55%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-12 10:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.61%E -5.42%K -30.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -8.55%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-12 07:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.61%E -5.42%K -30.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -8.55%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-12 08:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -4.31%E -3.45%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -9.72%E -2.53%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-12 01:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.94%EV -6.61%E -5.42%K -30.03%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV -9.72%E -2.53%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-12 10:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.31%E -3.45%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -10.89%E -2.87%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-12 06:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.31%E -3.45%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -10.89%E -2.87%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-12 06:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.08%E -4.09%K -21.15%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -10.89%E -2.87%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-12 05:43 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.08%E -4.09%K -21.15%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -10.89%E -2.87%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-12 06:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.08%E -4.09%K -21.15%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -10.89%E -2.87%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-12 06:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -6.61%E -5.42%K -30.03%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -10.89%E -2.87%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-12 08:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -6.61%E -5.42%K -30.03%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -10.89%E -2.87%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-12 08:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -2.78%E -2.19%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -12.07%E -3.22%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-12 10:14 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.61%E -5.42%K -30.03%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -12.07%E -3.22%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-12 07:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.61%E -5.42%K -30.03%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -12.07%E -3.22%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-12 07:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-05-12 10:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-05-12 10:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-05-12 10:19 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-05-12 10:14 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.26% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.74% | 2.2% | 2026-05-12 10:19 |
| Novig◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.52% | 4.31I 23.20%NM 22.48% | 3.2% | 2026-05-12 10:20 |