Language:English
Mariano Navone v Hamad Medjedovic
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mariano Navone (Local)
Prediction 44.40%2.25fair odd
EV +2.13%
Edge +0.924%
Kelly +1.64%
Growth +0.035%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.03%44.21%44.44%47.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.142.152.3050.00%46.73%46.51%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Hamad Medjedovic (Visit)
Prediction 55.60%1.80fair odd
EV +1.19%
Edge +0.652%
Kelly +1.45%
Growth +0.017%
assuming max odds 1.82
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.60%55.79%55.56%58.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.701.691.8262.50%58.97%59.00%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mariano Navone (Local): 44.40%; Hamad Medjedovic (Visit): 55.60%. For Mariano Navone (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.25. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.13%.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV +2.13%E +0.924%K +1.64%G +0.035% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -11.04%E -6.90%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.19%EV -1.87%E -0.846%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.81%EV -6.60%E -3.93%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.31%E -1.05%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.15%E -4.28%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.31%E -1.05%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.15%E -4.28%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.31%E -1.05%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.15%E -4.28%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.31%E -1.05%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.15%E -4.28%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.31%E -1.05%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.15%E -4.28%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 12:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.31%E -1.05%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.15%E -4.28%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.31%E -1.05%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.15%E -4.28%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.31%E -1.05%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.15%E -4.28%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 12:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.31%E -1.05%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.15%E -4.28%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.31%E -1.05%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.15%E -4.28%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 12:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.31%E -1.05%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.15%E -4.28%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.31%E -1.05%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.15%E -4.28%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.31%E -1.05%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.15%E -4.28%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.31%E -1.05%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.15%E -4.28%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.31%E -1.05%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.15%E -4.28%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -2.31%E -1.05%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -11.04%E -6.90%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.56%EV -2.76%E -1.26%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.44%EV -6.04%E -3.57%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.56%EV -2.76%E -1.26%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.44%EV -6.04%E -3.57%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-11 12:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -3.20%E -1.47%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -8.26%E -5.01%K -12.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-11 12:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -3.65%E -1.68%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -8.82%E -5.38%K -13.78%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -3.65%E -1.68%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -8.82%E -5.38%K -13.78%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.47%EV -4.09%E -1.89%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.53%EV -3.82%E -2.21%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-11 12:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.01%EV -4.53%E -2.11%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.99%EV -2.15%E -1.22%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.53%E -2.11%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.26%E -1.87%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.53%E -2.11%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.82%E -2.21%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-11 12:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.53%E -2.11%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.37%E -2.54%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-11 12:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.53%E -2.11%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.37%E -2.54%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-11 12:14 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.53%E -2.11%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.93%E -2.88%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -4.98%E -2.33%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.93%E -2.88%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-11 12:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV -5.42%E -2.55%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -4.37%E -2.54%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-11 12:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.53%EV -5.42%E -2.55%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.47%EV -4.93%E -2.88%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 12:24 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -5.87%E -2.77%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -5.48%E -3.23%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.75%E -3.22%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.82%E -2.21%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.75%E -3.22%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.82%E -2.21%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.75%E -3.22%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.82%E -2.21%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 12:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.75%E -3.22%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.82%E -2.21%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 12:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.75%E -3.22%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.37%E -2.54%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.75%E -3.22%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.37%E -2.54%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-11 12:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.75%E -3.22%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.93%E -2.88%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.75%E -3.22%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.93%E -2.88%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-11 12:24 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.75%E -3.22%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.93%E -2.88%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-11 12:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.75%E -3.22%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.48%E -3.23%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-11 12:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -6.75%E -3.22%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.04%E -3.57%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.75%E -3.22%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -6.60%E -3.93%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.75%E -3.22%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.15%E -4.28%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-11 12:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.75%E -3.22%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.15%E -4.28%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-11 12:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.97%E -4.38%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -2.70%E -1.55%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.97%E -4.38%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.48%E -3.23%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.97%E -4.38%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.48%E -3.23%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -8.97%E -4.38%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -7.15%E -4.28%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -10.31%E -5.10%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV +1.19%E +0.652%K +1.45%G +0.017% | 4.5% | 2026-05-11 12:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -10.31%E -5.10%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV +1.19%E +0.652%K +1.45%G +0.017% | 4.5% | 2026-05-11 12:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -11.19%E -5.60%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -4.37%E -2.54%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-11 12:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -11.19%E -5.60%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.48%E -3.23%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-11 12:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36% | 0.5% | 2026-05-11 12:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00% | 0.6% | 2026-05-11 12:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00% | 0.6% | 2026-05-11 12:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.86% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.14% | 0.9% | 2026-05-11 12:19 |
| Novig◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.86% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.14% | 0.9% | 2026-05-11 12:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.92% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.08% | 2.7% | 2026-05-11 12:25 |