Language:English
Lorenzo Musetti v Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lorenzo Musetti (Local)
Prediction 85.67%1.17fair odd
EV +0.237%
Edge +0.202%
Kelly +1.39%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 1.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.04%85.45%85.82%87.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.111.111.1793.46%90.08%90.09%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (Visit)
Prediction 14.33%6.98fair odd
EV +7.46%
Edge +0.994%
Kelly +1.15%
Growth +0.086%
assuming max odds 7.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.59%14.55%14.18%18.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.496.327.5020.00%15.41%15.81%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lorenzo Musetti (Local): 85.67%; Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (Visit): 14.33%. For Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.98. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.46%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.11%EV -4.90%E -4.42%K -44.58%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.89%EV +7.46%E +0.994%K +1.15%G +0.086% | 3.4% | 2026-05-08 20:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.62%E -6.07%K -73.53%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +7.46%E +0.994%K +1.15%G +0.086% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 19:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -7.47%E -6.92%K -93.42%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +7.46%E +0.994%K +1.15%G +0.086% | 5.9% | 2026-05-08 20:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -7.47%E -6.92%K -93.42%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +7.46%E +0.994%K +1.15%G +0.086% | 5.9% | 2026-05-08 20:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -7.47%E -6.92%K -93.42%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +7.46%E +0.994%K +1.15%G +0.086% | 5.9% | 2026-05-08 20:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -7.47%E -6.92%K -93.42%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +7.46%E +0.994%K +1.15%G +0.086% | 5.9% | 2026-05-08 19:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.06%EV -5.76%E -5.24%K -57.61%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.94%EV +6.03%E +0.814%K +0.941%G +0.057% | 4.4% | 2026-05-08 19:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 86.62%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.38%EV +3.88%E +0.535%K +0.620%G +0.024% | 3.1% | 2026-05-08 19:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.72%EV -4.90%E -4.42%K -44.58%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.28%EV +3.88%E +0.535%K +0.620%G +0.024% | 3.9% | 2026-05-08 20:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.39%EV -3.19%E -2.82%K -24.54%G +0.000% | 7.17I 13.95%NM 13.61%EV +2.73%E +0.381%K +0.442%G +0.012% | 2.4% | 2026-05-08 20:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.90%E -4.42%K -44.58%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV +0.294%E +0.042%K +0.049%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-08 20:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.76%E -5.24%K -57.61%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +0.294%E +0.042%K +0.049%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 20:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.76%E -5.24%K -57.61%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +0.294%E +0.042%K +0.049%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 20:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.76%E -5.24%K -57.61%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +0.294%E +0.042%K +0.049%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 20:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.76%E -5.24%K -57.61%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +0.294%E +0.042%K +0.049%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 20:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.97%EV -4.90%E -4.42%K -44.58%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.03%EV -2.57%E -0.378%K -0.443%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-08 20:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.97%EV -4.90%E -4.42%K -44.58%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.03%EV -2.57%E -0.378%K -0.443%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-08 20:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.97%EV -4.90%E -4.42%K -44.58%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.03%EV -2.57%E -0.378%K -0.443%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-08 19:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -5.76%E -5.24%K -57.61%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -3.29%E -0.487%K -0.572%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-08 19:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.10%EV -6.62%E -6.07%K -73.53%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -3.29%E -0.487%K -0.572%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 19:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.82%EV -4.90%E -4.42%K -44.58%G +0.000% | 6.72I 14.88%NM 14.18%EV -3.72%E -0.553%K -0.650%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 20:24 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.23%EV -8.33%E -7.79%K -119.01%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.77%EV -4.00%E -0.598%K -0.702%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-08 19:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.71%EV -5.76%E -5.24%K -57.61%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.29%EV -5.44%E -0.824%K -0.971%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-08 20:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.47%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 6.59I 15.17%NM 14.53%EV -5.58%E -0.847%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-08 20:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.47%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 6.59I 15.17%NM 14.53%EV -5.58%E -0.847%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-08 20:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.36%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 6.53I 15.31%NM 14.64%EV -6.44%E -0.986%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-08 20:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.76%E -5.24%K -57.61%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -6.87%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-08 19:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.76%E -5.24%K -57.61%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -6.87%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-08 19:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.32%EV -4.90%E -4.42%K -44.58%G +0.000% | 6.45I 15.50%NM 14.68%EV -7.59%E -1.18%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 19:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.12%EV -4.90%E -4.42%K -44.58%G +0.000% | 6.35I 15.75%NM 14.88%EV -9.02%E -1.42%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 20:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.23%EV -5.76%E -5.24%K -57.61%G +0.000% | 6.35I 15.75%NM 14.77%EV -9.02%E -1.42%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-08 20:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.91%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.09%EV -9.74%E -1.55%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 20:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.45%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 20:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.45%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 20:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.45%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 20:14 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.45%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 20:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.45%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 20:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.45%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 20:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.45%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 20:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.45%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 20:14 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.45%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 20:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.45%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 20:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.45%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 20:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.45%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 20:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.45%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 20:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.45%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 20:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -14.03%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-08 20:24 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -14.03%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-08 20:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -14.03%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-08 19:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -14.03%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-08 20:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -14.03%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-08 20:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -4.90%E -4.42%K -44.58%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -14.03%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-08 19:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -4.90%E -4.42%K -44.58%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -14.03%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-08 20:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -4.90%E -4.42%K -44.58%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -14.03%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-08 19:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -5.76%E -5.24%K -57.61%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -14.03%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-08 20:24 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -5.76%E -5.24%K -57.61%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -14.03%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-08 19:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.94%EV -4.90%E -4.42%K -44.58%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.06%EV -16.90%E -2.91%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-08 20:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.94%EV -4.90%E -4.42%K -44.58%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.06%EV -16.90%E -2.91%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-08 20:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.94%EV -4.90%E -4.42%K -44.58%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.06%EV -16.90%E -2.91%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-08 20:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.94%EV -4.90%E -4.42%K -44.58%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.06%EV -16.90%E -2.91%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-08 20:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -4.05%E -3.61%K -33.73%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -21.20%E -3.85%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-08 19:58 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV +0.237%E +0.202%K +1.39%G +0.003% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -28.36%E -5.67%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-08 20:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.89% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.11% | 0.7% | 2026-05-08 20:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.89% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.11% | 0.7% | 2026-05-08 20:24 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.89% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.11% | 0.7% | 2026-05-08 20:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 87.98% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.02% | 1.5% | 2026-05-08 20:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.82% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.18% | 2.6% | 2026-05-08 20:25 |
| Novig◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.63% | 7.19I 13.91%NM 13.37% | 4.0% | 2026-05-08 20:19 |