Language:English
Hamad Medjedovic v Joao Fonseca
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hamad Medjedovic (Local)
Prediction 36.87%2.71fair odd
EV +1.39%
Edge +0.504%
Kelly +0.792%
Growth +0.011%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.52%36.86%36.78%38.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.562.552.7541.67%39.06%39.22%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Joao Fonseca (Visit)
Prediction 63.13%1.58fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -5.14%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.40%63.14%63.22%65.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.501.501.5468.97%66.57%66.67%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hamad Medjedovic (Local): 36.87%; Joao Fonseca (Visit): 63.13%. For Hamad Medjedovic (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.71. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.39%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +1.39%E +0.504%K +0.792%G +0.011% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -8.46%E -5.83%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 17:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.53%EV +1.02%E +0.371%K +0.584%G +0.006% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.47%EV -4.67%E -3.09%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-05-09 17:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -2.30%E -0.869%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -3.41%E -2.23%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.45%EV -2.30%E -0.869%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.55%EV -4.04%E -2.66%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -3.04%E -1.16%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -3.41%E -2.23%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -3.04%E -1.16%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -3.41%E -2.23%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-09 17:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.61I 38.31%NM 36.80%EV -3.78%E -1.45%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.20%EV -4.04%E -2.66%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -4.14%E -1.59%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.41%E -2.23%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-09 17:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -4.14%E -1.59%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.04%E -2.66%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-09 17:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -4.14%E -1.59%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.04%E -2.66%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -4.14%E -1.59%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.67%E -3.09%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -4.14%E -1.59%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.67%E -3.09%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -4.14%E -1.59%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.67%E -3.09%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 17:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.14%E -1.59%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 17:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.14%E -1.59%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 17:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.14%E -1.59%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.14%E -1.59%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 17:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.14%E -1.59%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.14%E -1.59%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 17:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.14%E -1.59%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 17:44 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.76%EV -4.88%E -1.89%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.24%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 17:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.39%EV -5.25%E -2.04%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.61%EV -7.19%E -4.89%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 17:35 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 17:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 17:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 17:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 17:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 17:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 17:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 17:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 17:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -5.93%E -3.98%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -5.93%E -3.98%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -5.93%E -3.98%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 17:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -8.46%E -5.83%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -5.99%E -2.35%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -8.46%E -5.83%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.59%EV -6.36%E -2.50%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.41%EV -3.41%E -2.23%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -6.36%E -2.50%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -7.09%E -2.82%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -3.41%E -2.23%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.83%E -3.13%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.41%E -2.23%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -7.83%E -3.13%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -4.67%E -3.09%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-09 17:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.83%E -3.13%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 17:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.83%E -3.13%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 17:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.83%E -3.13%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 17:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.83%E -3.13%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -7.83%E -3.13%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.56%E -4.43%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -7.83%E -3.13%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.56%E -4.43%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -9.68%E -3.95%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -2.78%E -1.80%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-09 17:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -9.68%E -3.95%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-09 17:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -9.68%E -3.95%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-09 17:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -11.52%E -4.80%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -5.30%E -3.53%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-09 17:31 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52% | 0.6% | 2026-05-09 17:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35% | 0.9% | 2026-05-09 17:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35% | 0.9% | 2026-05-09 17:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35% | 0.9% | 2026-05-09 17:45 |
| Novig◎ | 2.77I 36.10%NM 35.28% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.72% | 2.3% | 2026-05-09 17:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.36% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.64% | 2.5% | 2026-05-09 17:50 |