Language:English
Frances Tiafoe v Ignacio Buse
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Frances Tiafoe (Local)
Prediction 41.60%2.40fair odd
EV -0.994%
Edge -0.418%
Kelly -0.720%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.75%41.57%41.62%42.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.282.302.3846.51%43.79%43.48%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ignacio Buse (Visit)
Prediction 58.40%1.71fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -3.69%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.03%58.43%58.38%60.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.621.621.6763.69%61.87%61.73%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frances Tiafoe (Local): 41.60%; Ignacio Buse (Visit): 58.40%. For Frances Tiafoe (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.40. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.38, with an expected value of -0.994%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.994%E -0.418%K -0.720%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.31%E -5.29%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-09 15:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.994%E -0.418%K -0.720%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.31%E -5.29%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-09 15:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.994%E -0.418%K -0.720%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.31%E -5.29%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-09 15:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.994%E -0.418%K -0.720%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.31%E -5.29%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-09 15:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.75%EV -3.07%E -1.32%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.25%EV -2.47%E -1.48%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-09 15:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%EV -3.49%E -1.50%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%EV -2.47%E -1.48%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-09 15:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -3.49%E -1.50%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -4.22%E -2.57%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-09 15:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.47%E -1.48%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-09 14:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.47%E -1.48%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-09 14:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.64%E -2.21%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-09 15:03 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -4.22%E -2.57%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -4.22%E -2.57%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-09 15:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.81%E -2.95%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 14:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 14:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 14:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 14:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 14:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 14:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 14:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 14:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 14:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 14:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 14:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 14:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 14:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 14:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 14:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 14:54 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 14:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.97%E -3.71%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-09 15:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.56%E -4.10%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 15:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -7.14%E -4.49%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-09 14:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -7.14%E -4.49%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-09 14:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -4.74%E -2.07%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -4.81%E -2.95%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 15:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.43%EV -4.74%E -2.07%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.57%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 15:39 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 40.67%EV -4.74%E -2.07%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.33%EV -8.31%E -5.29%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-09 15:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.15%E -2.26%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.81%E -2.95%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.15%E -2.26%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.81%E -2.95%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 15:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.15%E -2.26%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.81%E -2.95%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 15:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.15%E -2.26%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.81%E -2.95%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 15:04 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.15%E -2.26%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.81%E -2.95%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 15:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.49%EV -5.57%E -2.45%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.51%EV -5.97%E -3.71%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-09 15:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.75%EV -5.99%E -2.65%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.25%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 15:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.64%E -2.21%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 14:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.64%E -2.21%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 14:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.81%E -2.95%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-09 15:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-09 15:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-09 15:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-09 15:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.97%E -3.71%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-09 14:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.97%E -3.71%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-09 15:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.56%E -4.10%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-09 14:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.56%E -4.10%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-09 14:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -7.14%E -4.49%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 15:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -7.73%E -4.89%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-09 15:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -7.73%E -4.89%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-09 15:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.31%E -5.29%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-09 15:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.31%E -5.29%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-09 15:14 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.48%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-09 14:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.48%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.56%E -4.10%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 15:24 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.48%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.56%E -4.10%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 14:51 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -10.56%E -4.91%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-09 14:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68% | 0.8% | 2026-05-09 15:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68% | 0.8% | 2026-05-09 15:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68% | 0.8% | 2026-05-09 15:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68% | 0.8% | 2026-05-09 15:34 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77% | 1.9% | 2026-05-09 15:40 |
| Novig◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.09% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.91% | 2.3% | 2026-05-09 15:34 |