Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Frances Tiafoe v Ignacio Buse

Início: 2026-05-09 16:10 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

62 casas de apostas (23 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Frances Tiafoe (Local)

Previsão 41.60%2.40odd justa
EV -0.994%
Vantagem -0.418%
Kelly -0.720%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.38

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
39.75%41.57%41.62%42.97%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.152.282.302.3846.51%43.79%43.48%42.02%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Ignacio Buse (Visitante)

Previsão 58.40%1.71odd justa
EV -2.47%
Vantagem -1.48%
Kelly -3.69%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.67

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
57.03%58.43%58.38%60.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.571.621.621.6763.69%61.87%61.73%59.88%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Frances Tiafoe (Local): 41.60%; Ignacio Buse (Visitante): 58.40%. Para Frances Tiafoe (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.40. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 2.38, com valor esperado de -0.994%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (62 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.994%E -0.418%K -0.720%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.31%E -5.29%K -14.58%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-09 15:50
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.994%E -0.418%K -0.720%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.31%E -5.29%K -14.58%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-09 15:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.994%E -0.418%K -0.720%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.31%E -5.29%K -14.58%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-09 15:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.994%E -0.418%K -0.720%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.31%E -5.29%K -14.58%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-09 15:50
Pinnacle🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.75%EV -3.07%E -1.32%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.25%EV -2.47%E -1.48%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-09 15:50
Coolbet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%EV -3.49%E -1.50%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%EV -2.47%E -1.48%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-09 15:54
1xBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -3.49%E -1.50%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -4.22%E -2.57%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-09 15:44
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.47%E -1.48%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-09 14:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.47%E -1.48%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-09 14:55
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.64%E -2.21%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-09 15:03
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -4.22%E -2.57%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-09 15:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -4.22%E -2.57%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-09 15:04
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.81%E -2.95%K -7.63%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 14:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 14:55
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 14:55
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 14:55
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 14:55
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 14:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 14:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 14:55
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 14:55
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 14:55
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 14:54
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 14:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 14:54
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 14:55
Bally Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 14:55
betPARX🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 14:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 14:55
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.97%E -3.71%K -9.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 15:14
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.56%E -4.10%K -10.93%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 15:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -7.14%E -4.49%K -12.11%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 14:55
Caesars🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.32%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -7.14%E -4.49%K -12.11%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 14:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -4.74%E -2.07%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -4.81%E -2.95%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-09 15:04
Marathon Bet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.43%EV -4.74%E -2.07%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.57%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 15:39
GTbets🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.67%EV -4.74%E -2.07%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.33%EV -8.31%E -5.29%K -14.58%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-09 15:04
SportsBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.15%E -2.26%K -4.03%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.81%E -2.95%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 15:10
Bet Right🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.15%E -2.26%K -4.03%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.81%E -2.95%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 15:49
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.15%E -2.26%K -4.03%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.81%E -2.95%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 15:04
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.15%E -2.26%K -4.03%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.81%E -2.95%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 15:04
ReBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.15%E -2.26%K -4.03%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.81%E -2.95%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 15:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.49%EV -5.57%E -2.45%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.51%EV -5.97%E -3.71%K -9.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 15:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.75%EV -5.99%E -2.65%K -4.75%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.25%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 15:04
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.64%E -2.21%K -5.60%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 14:55
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.64%E -2.21%K -5.60%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 14:59
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.81%E -2.95%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-09 15:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 15:04
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 15:55
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 15:09
PMU (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.97%E -3.71%K -9.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 14:55
NetBet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.97%E -3.71%K -9.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 15:39
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.56%E -4.10%K -10.93%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 14:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.56%E -4.10%K -10.93%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 14:55
Fliff🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -7.14%E -4.49%K -12.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 15:44
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -7.73%E -4.89%K -13.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-09 15:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -7.73%E -4.89%K -13.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-09 15:14
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.31%E -5.29%K -14.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 15:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.40%E -2.85%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.31%E -5.29%K -14.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 15:14
TAB🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.48%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 14:55
Everygame🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.48%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.56%E -4.10%K -10.93%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 15:24
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.48%E -3.86%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.56%E -4.10%K -10.93%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 14:51
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -10.56%E -4.91%K -9.18%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -5.39%E -3.33%K -8.69%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-09 14:55
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%0.8%2026-05-09 15:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%0.8%2026-05-09 15:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%0.8%2026-05-09 15:35
Matchbook2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%0.8%2026-05-09 15:34
Smarkets2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%1.9%2026-05-09 15:40
Novig2.38I 42.02%NM 41.09%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.91%2.3%2026-05-09 15:34