Language:English
Felix Auger-Aliassime v Mariano Navone
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Felix Auger-Aliassime (Local)
Prediction 62.40%1.60fair odd
EV -3.29%
Edge -2.12%
Kelly -5.98%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.07%62.51%62.50%65.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.521.521.5568.97%65.92%65.79%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Mariano Navone (Visit)
Prediction 37.60%2.66fair odd
EV +3.41%
Edge +1.24%
Kelly +1.95%
Growth +0.067%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.52%37.49%37.50%38.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.522.502.7541.67%39.69%40.00%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Felix Auger-Aliassime (Local): 62.40%; Mariano Navone (Visit): 37.60%. For Mariano Navone (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.66. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.41%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -9.53%E -6.57%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +3.41%E +1.24%K +1.95%G +0.067% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -4.54%E -2.96%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -0.347%E -0.131%K -0.210%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.92%EV -7.03%E -4.72%K -14.35%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.08%EV -0.723%E -0.274%K -0.441%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.07%EV -3.91%E -2.54%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.93%EV -1.10%E -0.418%K -0.674%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.13%EV -4.54%E -2.96%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.87%EV -1.48%E -0.563%K -0.911%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.13%EV -4.54%E -2.96%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.87%EV -1.48%E -0.563%K -0.911%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -5.16%E -3.39%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -2.23%E -0.857%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-09 11:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.08%EV -5.78%E -3.83%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -2.98%E -1.15%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.91%E -2.54%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.11%E -1.61%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-09 10:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.54%E -2.96%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.11%E -1.61%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.54%E -2.96%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.11%E -1.61%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.16%E -3.39%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.11%E -1.61%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.78%E -3.83%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.11%E -1.61%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.78%E -3.83%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.11%E -1.61%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.78%E -3.83%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.11%E -1.61%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.78%E -3.83%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.11%E -1.61%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.78%E -3.83%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.11%E -1.61%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.78%E -3.83%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.11%E -1.61%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.78%E -3.83%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.11%E -1.61%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.78%E -3.83%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.11%E -1.61%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.78%E -3.83%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.11%E -1.61%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.78%E -3.83%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.11%E -1.61%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.78%E -3.83%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.11%E -1.61%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.78%E -3.83%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.11%E -1.61%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.78%E -3.83%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.11%E -1.61%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.41%E -4.27%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.11%E -1.61%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.41%E -4.27%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.11%E -1.61%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.92%EV -3.29%E -2.12%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.08%EV -5.24%E -2.08%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.53%EV -5.78%E -3.83%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.47%EV -5.24%E -2.08%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 11:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.98%EV -3.91%E -2.54%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.02%EV -5.61%E -2.24%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.91%E -2.54%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.99%E -2.40%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.54%E -2.96%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.99%E -2.40%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.54%E -2.96%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.99%E -2.40%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.54%E -2.96%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.99%E -2.40%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.54%E -2.96%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.99%E -2.40%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.54%E -2.96%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.99%E -2.40%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.54%E -2.96%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.99%E -2.40%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.54%E -2.96%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.99%E -2.40%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.54%E -2.96%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.99%E -2.40%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.54%E -2.96%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.99%E -2.40%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.54%E -2.96%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.99%E -2.40%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.16%E -3.39%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.99%E -2.40%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-09 11:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.78%E -3.83%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -5.99%E -2.40%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.41%E -4.27%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.99%E -2.40%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.41%E -4.27%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.99%E -2.40%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.41%E -4.27%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.99%E -2.40%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -8.28%E -5.63%K -17.62%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -5.99%E -2.40%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%EV -5.16%E -3.39%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%EV -6.74%E -2.72%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.16%EV -5.78%E -3.83%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV -6.74%E -2.72%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.31%EV -6.41%E -4.27%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -6.74%E -2.72%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.31%EV -6.41%E -4.27%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -6.74%E -2.72%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.90%EV -5.16%E -3.39%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.10%EV -7.12%E -2.88%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 11:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.54%E -2.96%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.87%E -3.21%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.54%E -2.96%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.87%E -3.21%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.54%E -2.96%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -9.75%E -4.06%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.54%E -2.96%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -9.75%E -4.06%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.54%E -2.96%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -9.75%E -4.06%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -5.16%E -3.39%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -9.75%E -4.06%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -5.16%E -3.39%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -9.75%E -4.06%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.41%E -4.27%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.75%E -4.06%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.41%E -4.27%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.75%E -4.06%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-09 11:08 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.76% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.24% | 0.2% | 2026-05-09 11:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.06% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.94% | 1.0% | 2026-05-09 11:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.06% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.94% | 1.0% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.06% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.94% | 1.0% | 2026-05-09 11:14 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.03% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 36.97% | 1.7% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
| Novig◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.27% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 36.73% | 2.0% | 2026-05-09 11:14 |