Language:English
Ugo Humbert v Alex Michelsen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ugo Humbert (Local)
Prediction 48.72%2.05fair odd
EV +2.31%
Edge +1.10%
Kelly +2.10%
Growth +0.048%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.33%48.82%48.95%53.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.941.942.1057.80%51.46%51.55%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex Michelsen (Visit)
Prediction 51.28%1.95fair odd
EV +2.57%
Edge +1.28%
Kelly +2.57%
Growth +0.066%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.38%51.18%51.05%54.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.851.872.0058.82%54.05%53.62%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ugo Humbert (Local): 48.72%; Alex Michelsen (Visit): 51.28%. For Alex Michelsen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.95. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.57%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -15.72%E -9.09%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV +2.57%E +1.28%K +2.57%G +0.066% | 7.8% | 2026-03-08 03:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -15.72%E -9.09%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV +2.57%E +1.28%K +2.57%G +0.066% | 7.8% | 2026-03-08 03:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.61%EV -5.49%E -2.83%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.39%EV -2.05%E -1.07%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-08 03:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.05%E -1.07%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-08 03:38 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.05%E -1.07%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -10.85%E -5.93%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -2.05%E -1.07%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.22%EV -4.51%E -2.30%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.78%EV -2.56%E -1.35%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.74%EV -6.46%E -3.37%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.26%EV -2.56%E -1.35%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-08 03:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.74%EV -6.46%E -3.37%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.26%EV -2.56%E -1.35%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-08 03:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -6.46%E -3.37%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -3.08%E -1.63%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -6.46%E -3.37%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -3.08%E -1.63%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -6.46%E -3.37%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -3.08%E -1.63%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -6.46%E -3.37%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -3.08%E -1.63%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -6.46%E -3.37%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -3.08%E -1.63%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 03:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -6.46%E -3.37%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -3.08%E -1.63%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -6.46%E -3.37%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -3.08%E -1.63%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -6.46%E -3.37%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -3.08%E -1.63%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -6.46%E -3.37%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -3.08%E -1.63%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -6.46%E -3.37%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -3.08%E -1.63%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 03:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -6.46%E -3.37%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -3.08%E -1.63%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -6.46%E -3.37%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -3.08%E -1.63%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.70%EV -4.03%E -2.04%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.30%EV -4.10%E -2.19%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.83%EV -4.51%E -2.30%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.17%EV -4.10%E -2.19%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-08 03:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.00%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.10%E -2.19%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.00%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.10%E -2.19%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.49%E -2.83%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.10%E -2.19%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 03:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.49%E -2.83%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.10%E -2.19%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.49%E -2.83%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.10%E -2.19%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.90%E -4.76%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.10%E -2.19%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-08 03:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.90%E -4.76%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.10%E -2.19%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-08 03:18 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.21%EV -6.46%E -3.37%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.79%EV -4.61%E -2.48%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 03:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.73%EV -8.41%E -4.47%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.27%EV -4.61%E -2.48%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%EV -0.617%E -0.302%K -0.593%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%EV -5.13%E -2.77%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-08 03:28 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -9.87%E -5.34%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -5.13%E -2.77%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.57%E -1.28%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.15%E -3.36%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -5.98%E -3.10%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -6.15%E -3.36%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-08 03:18 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.15%E -3.36%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-08 03:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -8.90%E -4.76%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -6.15%E -3.36%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -2.57%E -1.28%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -6.67%E -3.66%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-08 03:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -2.57%E -1.28%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -6.67%E -3.66%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-08 03:38 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.29%EV +2.31%E +1.10%K +2.10%G +0.048% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.71%EV -7.18%E -3.97%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-08 03:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.63%EV -3.05%E -1.53%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.37%EV -7.18%E -3.97%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-08 03:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -0.130%E -0.063%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -7.69%E -4.27%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-08 03:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -0.130%E -0.063%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -7.69%E -4.27%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -0.130%E -0.063%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -7.69%E -4.27%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-08 03:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.57%E -1.28%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.69%E -4.27%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.57%E -1.28%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.69%E -4.27%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.57%E -1.28%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.69%E -4.27%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -3.54%E -1.79%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -7.69%E -4.27%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-08 03:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.00%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.69%E -4.27%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.00%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.69%E -4.27%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.69%E -4.27%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.69%E -4.27%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.23%EV -2.57%E -1.28%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.77%EV -8.20%E -4.58%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-08 03:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -2.57%E -1.28%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -8.72%E -4.90%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-08 03:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -5.00%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -8.72%E -4.90%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -5.00%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -8.72%E -4.90%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-08 03:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -3.54%E -1.79%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -9.23%E -5.21%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-08 03:39 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -0.130%E -0.063%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -10.26%E -5.86%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-08 03:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -0.130%E -0.063%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -12.82%E -7.54%K -18.31%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-08 03:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.37% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.63% | 0.5% | 2026-03-08 03:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.37% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.63% | 0.5% | 2026-03-08 03:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.37% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.63% | 0.5% | 2026-03-08 03:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.24% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.76% | 0.8% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| Novig◎ | 2.11I 47.39%NM 46.72% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.28% | 1.4% | 2026-03-08 03:39 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.77% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.23% | 3.8% | 2026-03-08 03:40 |