Language:English
Sebastian Baez v Jiri Lehecka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sebastian Baez (Local)
Prediction 45.97%2.18fair odd
EV +44.80%
Edge +14.22%
Kelly +20.84%
Growth +9.34%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.16%44.08%48.93%51.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.802.251.973.1555.56%44.46%50.76%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jiri Lehecka (Visit)
Prediction 54.03%1.85fair odd
EV +5.36%
Edge +2.75%
Kelly +5.64%
Growth +0.302%
assuming max odds 1.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.52%55.92%51.07%69.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.691.781.9574.07%59.27%56.18%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sebastian Baez (Local): 45.97%; Jiri Lehecka (Visit): 54.03%. For Sebastian Baez (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.18. 20 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +44.80%.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV +44.80%E +14.22%K +20.84%G +9.34% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -26.52%E -19.50%K -73.66%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 03:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV +42.50%E +13.71%K +20.24%G +8.60% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -25.44%E -18.43%K -66.94%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-08 02:45 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.08%EV +40.66%E +13.29%K +19.74%G +8.03% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.92%EV -25.44%E -18.43%K -66.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-08 03:21 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.74%EV +37.45%E +12.52%K +18.82%G +7.05% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.26%EV -24.90%E -17.91%K -63.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-08 02:45 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV +35.61%E +12.07%K +18.26%G +6.50% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -22.74%E -15.90%K -52.87%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-08 03:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.64%EV +34.69%E +11.84%K +17.97%G +6.23% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.36%EV -23.28%E -16.39%K -55.42%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-08 03:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.64%EV +34.69%E +11.84%K +17.97%G +6.23% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.36%EV -23.28%E -16.39%K -55.42%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-08 03:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.33%EV +34.23%E +11.72%K +17.83%G +6.10% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.67%EV -21.11%E -14.46%K -45.90%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-03-08 02:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +33.31%E +11.49%K +17.53%G +5.84% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -24.36%E -17.40%K -60.89%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-08 02:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV +33.31%E +11.49%K +17.53%G +5.84% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -27.06%E -20.04%K -77.31%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-08 03:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV +32.39%E +11.25%K +17.23%G +5.58% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -23.28%E -16.39%K -55.42%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-08 03:22 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV +31.01%E +10.88%K +16.76%G +5.20% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -23.28%E -16.39%K -55.42%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-08 03:18 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV +31.01%E +10.88%K +16.76%G +5.20% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -23.82%E -16.89%K -58.09%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-08 03:22 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.80%EV +29.63%E +10.51%K +16.28%G +4.82% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.20%EV -22.20%E -15.41%K -50.44%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-08 03:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +28.71%E +10.25%K +15.95%G +4.58% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -22.74%E -15.90%K -52.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-08 02:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV +28.71%E +10.25%K +15.95%G +4.58% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -23.28%E -16.39%K -55.42%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-08 03:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV +28.71%E +10.25%K +15.95%G +4.58% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -24.36%E -17.40%K -60.89%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-08 02:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV +28.71%E +10.25%K +15.95%G +4.58% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -24.36%E -17.40%K -60.89%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-08 02:44 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 33.89%EV +27.33%E +9.87%K +15.44%G +4.22% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.11%EV -23.28%E -16.39%K -55.42%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-08 03:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV +1.13%E +0.514%K +0.943%G +0.011% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -8.15%E -4.79%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-08 03:28 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.76%E -2.81%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.36%E -2.47%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.76%E -2.81%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.45%E -3.11%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.17%EV -6.22%E -3.05%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.83%EV -5.45%E -3.11%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -8.06%E -4.03%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -1.12%E -0.614%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.06%E -4.03%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.45%E -3.11%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-08 03:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.06%E -4.03%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.45%E -3.11%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.06%E -4.03%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.53%E -3.77%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-08 03:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -9.44%E -4.79%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%EV -0.583%E -0.317%K -0.694%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -9.44%E -4.79%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -1.12%E -0.614%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -9.44%E -4.79%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -1.12%E -0.614%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-08 03:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -9.44%E -4.79%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -1.12%E -0.614%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-08 03:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -9.44%E -4.79%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -1.12%E -0.614%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -9.44%E -4.79%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -1.12%E -0.614%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -9.44%E -4.79%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -1.12%E -0.614%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -10.36%E -5.31%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV +1.04%E +0.555%K +1.19%G +0.012% | 4.8% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -10.36%E -5.31%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV +1.04%E +0.555%K +1.19%G +0.012% | 4.8% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -10.36%E -5.31%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -0.042%E -0.023%K -0.050%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 03:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -10.36%E -5.31%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -2.74%E -1.52%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-08 03:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -10.36%E -5.31%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -2.74%E -1.52%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -10.36%E -5.31%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -2.74%E -1.52%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-08 03:35 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -10.36%E -5.31%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.28%EV -7.61%E -4.45%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -10.82%E -5.58%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -2.74%E -1.52%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-08 03:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -11.28%E -5.84%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%EV -3.82%E -2.15%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.97%EV -11.74%E -6.11%K -12.76%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.03%EV -4.36%E -2.47%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-08 03:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -12.20%E -6.39%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -1.12%E -0.614%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -12.20%E -6.39%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -1.12%E -0.614%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -12.66%E -6.66%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -0.042%E -0.023%K -0.050%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -12.66%E -6.66%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -0.042%E -0.023%K -0.050%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-08 03:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -12.66%E -6.66%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -0.042%E -0.023%K -0.050%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.92%EV -12.66%E -6.66%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.08%EV -1.66%E -0.914%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-08 03:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -14.96%E -8.09%K -17.60%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV +5.36%E +2.75%K +5.64%G +0.302% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -14.96%E -8.09%K -17.60%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -0.042%E -0.023%K -0.050%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-08 03:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -14.96%E -8.09%K -17.60%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -0.042%E -0.023%K -0.050%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-08 03:29 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.31%EV -15.42%E -8.38%K -18.35%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.69%EV -3.28%E -1.83%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-08 03:33 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.17%EV -15.42%E -8.38%K -18.35%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.83%EV -3.82%E -2.15%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -15.88%E -8.68%K -19.13%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV +3.20%E +1.68%K +3.52%G +0.112% | 7.0% | 2026-03-08 03:33 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -15.88%E -8.68%K -19.13%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV +3.20%E +1.68%K +3.52%G +0.112% | 7.0% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -15.88%E -8.68%K -19.13%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV +3.20%E +1.68%K +3.52%G +0.112% | 7.0% | 2026-03-08 03:32 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -17.26%E -9.59%K -21.57%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV +3.20%E +1.68%K +3.52%G +0.112% | 7.9% | 2026-03-08 03:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.37% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.63% | 0.3% | 2026-03-08 03:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25% | 0.5% | 2026-03-08 03:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 1.0% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.45% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.55% | 3.2% | 2026-03-08 03:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00% | 6.4% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05% | 8.8% | 2026-03-08 03:34 |