Language:English
Roberto Bautista Agut v Jack Draper
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Roberto Bautista Agut (Local)
Prediction 16.28%6.14fair odd
EV +22.12%
Edge +2.95%
Kelly +3.40%
Growth +0.752%
assuming max odds 7.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.49%16.04%16.31%17.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.255.895.967.5019.05%16.99%16.78%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jack Draper (Visit)
Prediction 83.72%1.19fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -3.24%
Kelly -24.83%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.03%83.96%83.69%87.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.121.131.1593.46%88.92%88.50%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Roberto Bautista Agut (Local): 16.28%; Jack Draper (Visit): 83.72%. For Roberto Bautista Agut (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.14. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +22.12%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV +22.12%E +2.95%K +3.40%G +0.752% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -10.42%E -9.74%K -148.88%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-07 19:13 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +13.97%E +2.00%K +2.33%G +0.325% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -7.91%E -7.19%K -79.10%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 19:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.23%EV +4.21%E +0.657%K +0.779%G +0.033% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.77%EV -3.72%E -3.24%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-03-07 19:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.09%EV +2.58%E +0.409%K +0.486%G +0.013% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.91%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 19:12 |
| GTbets🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +1.76%E +0.282%K +0.336%G +0.006% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 19:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 6.24I 16.03%NM 15.33%EV +1.60%E +0.256%K +0.305%G +0.005% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.67%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -0.679%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -0.679%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -0.679%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-07 19:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -0.679%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.56%E -4.00%K -32.58%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-07 19:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 19:07 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 19:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 19:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 19:07 |
| William Hill🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 19:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.30%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.30%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-07 19:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.30%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.30%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.30%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.96I 16.78%NM 16.06%EV -2.96%E -0.496%K -0.597%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.94%EV -4.56%E -4.00%K -32.58%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-07 19:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.96I 16.78%NM 16.06%EV -2.96%E -0.496%K -0.597%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.94%EV -4.56%E -4.00%K -32.58%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-07 19:11 |
| Fliff🎯 | 5.95I 16.81%NM 15.48%EV -3.12%E -0.525%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.52%EV -8.75%E -8.03%K -97.19%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -5.56%E -0.959%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 19:07 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -5.56%E -0.959%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -5.56%E -0.959%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.82%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -5.56%E -0.959%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.82%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -6.38%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.56%E -4.00%K -32.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-07 19:18 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -6.38%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.56%E -4.00%K -32.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -6.38%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -6.38%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-07 19:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.67%EV -7.19%E -1.26%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.33%EV -4.56%E -4.00%K -32.58%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.67%EV -7.19%E -1.26%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.33%EV -4.56%E -4.00%K -32.58%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.65I 17.70%NM 16.79%EV -8.01%E -1.42%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.21%EV -4.56%E -4.00%K -32.58%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 19:03 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -8.82%E -1.58%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -3.72%E -3.24%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -8.82%E -1.58%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -8.82%E -1.58%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -8.82%E -1.58%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 19:06 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -8.82%E -1.58%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 19:06 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV -8.82%E -1.58%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.46%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.30%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-07 19:12 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.55I 18.02%NM 16.67%EV -9.63%E -1.74%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.33%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.30%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-07 19:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -10.45%E -1.90%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -10.45%E -1.90%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -10.45%E -1.90%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -10.45%E -1.90%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -10.45%E -1.90%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -10.45%E -1.90%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.30%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -10.45%E -1.90%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.30%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -12.08%E -2.24%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -4.56%E -4.00%K -32.58%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -14.52%E -2.77%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -3.72%E -3.24%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 19:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96% | 0.9% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43% | 0.9% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54% | 1.1% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.23% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.77% | 2.6% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Novig◎ | 6.02I 16.61%NM 15.21% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.79% | 9.2% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |