Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Roberto Bautista Agut v Jack Draper

Início: 2026-03-07 20:00 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

57 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Roberto Bautista Agut (Local)

Previsão 16.28%6.14odd justa
EV +22.12%
Vantagem +2.95%
Kelly +3.40%
Crescimento +0.752%

pressupondo odds máximas de 7.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
12.49%16.04%16.31%17.97%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.255.895.967.5019.05%16.99%16.78%13.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Jack Draper (Visitante)

Previsão 83.72%1.19odd justa
EV -3.72%
Vantagem -3.24%
Kelly -24.83%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.15

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
82.03%83.96%83.69%87.51%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.071.121.131.1593.46%88.92%88.50%86.96%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Roberto Bautista Agut (Local): 16.28%; Jack Draper (Visitante): 83.72%. Para Roberto Bautista Agut (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 6.14. 6 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 7.50, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +22.12%.

Odds das casas de apostas (57 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
Caesars🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV +22.12%E +2.95%K +3.40%G +0.752%1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -10.42%E -9.74%K -148.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-07 19:13
BoyleSports🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +13.97%E +2.00%K +2.33%G +0.325%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -7.91%E -7.19%K -79.10%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 19:15
Pinnacle🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 15.23%EV +4.21%E +0.657%K +0.779%G +0.033%1.15I 86.96%NM 84.77%EV -3.72%E -3.24%K -24.83%G +0.000%2.6%2026-03-07 19:15
Unibet (FR)🎯6.30I 15.87%NM 15.09%EV +2.58%E +0.409%K +0.486%G +0.013%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.91%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 19:12
GTbets🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +1.76%E +0.282%K +0.336%G +0.006%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 19:05
DraftKings🎯6.24I 16.03%NM 15.33%EV +1.60%E +0.256%K +0.305%G +0.005%1.13I 88.50%NM 84.67%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-07 19:20
Unibet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -0.679%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-07 19:19
betPARX🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -0.679%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-07 19:19
Bally Bet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -0.679%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-07 19:10
ATG (SE)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -0.679%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-07 19:19
Coolbet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.56%E -4.00%K -32.58%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-07 19:09
Bet Right🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 19:07
Unibet (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 19:19
Unibet (NL)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 19:19
Unibet (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 19:20
Svenska Spel🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 19:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 19:19
Betway🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 19:19
Coral🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 19:14
BetUS🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 19:09
Betr (AU)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 19:07
William Hill🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 19:05
888sport🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-07 19:19
Paddy Power🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-07 19:15
theScore Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-07 19:19
888sport (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-07 19:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -2.31%E -0.385%K -0.461%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-07 19:19
LowVig.ag🎯5.96I 16.78%NM 16.06%EV -2.96%E -0.496%K -0.597%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.94%EV -4.56%E -4.00%K -32.58%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-07 19:10
BetOnline.ag🎯5.96I 16.78%NM 16.06%EV -2.96%E -0.496%K -0.597%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.94%EV -4.56%E -4.00%K -32.58%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-07 19:11
Fliff🎯5.95I 16.81%NM 15.48%EV -3.12%E -0.525%K -0.631%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 84.52%EV -8.75%E -8.03%K -97.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 19:19
Codere (IT)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -5.56%E -0.959%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 19:07
TABtouch🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -5.56%E -0.959%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 19:19
LiveScore Bet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -5.56%E -0.959%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.82%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-07 19:19
Virgin Bet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -5.56%E -0.959%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.82%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-07 19:19
Bovada🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -6.38%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.56%E -4.00%K -32.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 19:18
Casumo🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -6.38%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.56%E -4.00%K -32.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 19:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -6.38%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 19:19
SportsBet🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -6.38%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 19:10
NordicBet🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 16.67%EV -7.19%E -1.26%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.33%EV -4.56%E -4.00%K -32.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 19:19
Betsson🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 16.67%EV -7.19%E -1.26%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.33%EV -4.56%E -4.00%K -32.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 19:20
Marathon Bet🎯5.65I 17.70%NM 16.79%EV -8.01%E -1.42%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.21%EV -4.56%E -4.00%K -32.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-07 19:03
FanDuel🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -8.82%E -1.58%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -3.72%E -3.24%K -24.83%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-07 19:19
Winamax (DE)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -8.82%E -1.58%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 19:20
Grosvenor🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -8.82%E -1.58%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 19:20
Neds🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -8.82%E -1.58%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 19:06
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -8.82%E -1.58%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 19:06
Betclic (FR)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV -8.82%E -1.58%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.46%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.30%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 19:12
Fanatics🎯5.55I 18.02%NM 16.67%EV -9.63%E -1.74%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.33%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.30%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-07 19:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -10.45%E -1.90%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 19:19
TAB🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -10.45%E -1.90%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 19:20
BetMGM🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -10.45%E -1.90%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 19:20
Bet Victor🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -10.45%E -1.90%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 19:20
Tipico (DE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -10.45%E -1.90%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.24%E -5.57%K -51.97%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-07 19:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -10.45%E -1.90%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.30%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-07 19:20
LeoVegas🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -10.45%E -1.90%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.30%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-07 19:20
Winamax (FR)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -12.08%E -2.24%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -4.56%E -4.00%K -32.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-07 19:20
PlayUp🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -14.52%E -2.77%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -3.72%E -3.24%K -24.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 19:10
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04%1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96%0.9%2026-03-07 19:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43%0.9%2026-03-07 19:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54%1.1%2026-03-07 19:20
Matchbook6.40I 15.63%NM 15.23%1.15I 86.96%NM 84.77%2.6%2026-03-07 19:20
Novig6.02I 16.61%NM 15.21%1.08I 92.59%NM 84.79%9.2%2026-03-07 19:19