Language:English
Joao Fonseca v Tommy Paul
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Joao Fonseca (Local)
Prediction 49.35%2.03fair odd
EV +43.11%
Edge +14.86%
Kelly +22.69%
Growth +9.78%
assuming max odds 2.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.02%47.48%49.53%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.672.151.952.9059.88%46.61%51.28%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tommy Paul (Visit)
Prediction 50.65%1.97fair odd
EV +6.37%
Edge +3.03%
Kelly +5.79%
Growth +0.369%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%52.52%50.47%66.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.751.822.1070.92%57.28%54.95%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Joao Fonseca (Local): 49.35%; Tommy Paul (Visit): 50.65%. For Joao Fonseca (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.03. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +43.11%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV +43.11%E +14.86%K +22.69%G +9.78% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -27.57%E -19.28%K -64.11%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-09 02:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV +42.12%E +14.62%K +22.40%G +9.44% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -28.07%E -19.77%K -66.84%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 02:37 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV +41.13%E +14.38%K +22.11%G +9.10% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -26.55%E -18.31%K -59.01%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-09 02:41 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV +41.13%E +14.38%K +22.11%G +9.10% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -26.55%E -18.31%K -59.01%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-09 02:42 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV +40.64%E +14.26%K +21.97%G +8.93% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -28.58%E -20.27%K -69.71%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-09 02:37 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +38.17%E +13.63%K +21.21%G +8.09% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -27.57%E -19.28%K -64.11%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-09 02:41 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +35.70%E +12.98%K +20.40%G +7.28% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -27.06%E -18.79%K -61.50%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 02:36 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV +33.24%E +12.31%K +19.55%G +6.50% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -25.54%E -17.37%K -54.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 02:36 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV +33.24%E +12.31%K +19.55%G +6.50% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -26.55%E -18.31%K -59.01%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-09 02:41 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV +30.77%E +11.61%K +18.65%G +5.74% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -27.06%E -18.79%K -61.50%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-09 02:36 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV +30.77%E +11.61%K +18.65%G +5.74% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -27.06%E -18.79%K -61.50%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-09 02:36 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV +30.77%E +11.61%K +18.65%G +5.74% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -28.07%E -19.77%K -66.84%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-09 02:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV +25.83%E +10.13%K +16.67%G +4.31% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -21.99%E -14.28%K -40.73%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-09 02:47 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV +15.97%E +6.79%K +11.83%G +1.89% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -20.47%E -13.04%K -35.92%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-09 02:48 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV +13.50%E +5.87%K +10.38%G +1.40% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.53%EV -24.02%E -16.01%K -48.04%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-09 02:43 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -1.31%E -0.653%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-09 02:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -1.31%E -0.653%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -12.37%E -7.15%K -16.95%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-09 02:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.35%EV -1.80%E -0.904%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.65%EV -9.33%E -5.21%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-09 02:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -2.29%E -1.16%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -7.31%E -3.99%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 02:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -3.28%E -1.67%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -6.80%E -3.69%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-09 02:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -3.77%E -1.94%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -7.31%E -3.99%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-09 02:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -3.77%E -1.94%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-09 02:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -3.77%E -1.94%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-09 02:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.53%EV -4.76%E -2.47%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.47%EV -7.81%E -4.29%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-09 02:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -4.76%E -2.47%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -8.32%E -4.60%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-09 02:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.75%E -3.01%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.25%E -1.70%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 02:49 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.06%EV -6.24%E -3.28%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -7.31%E -3.99%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-09 02:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.91%EV -6.73%E -3.56%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.09%EV -0.720%E -0.367%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-09 02:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.63%EV -7.23%E -3.84%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.37%EV -9.84%E -5.53%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-09 02:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.72%E -4.13%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.28%E -2.82%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-09 02:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -8.71%E -4.71%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -1.23%E -0.629%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-09 02:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -8.71%E -4.71%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -1.23%E -0.629%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-09 02:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -8.71%E -4.71%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -1.23%E -0.629%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-09 02:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -8.71%E -4.71%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -3.25%E -1.70%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-09 02:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -9.69%E -5.30%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -3.25%E -1.70%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-09 02:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.47%EV -10.19%E -5.60%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.53%EV -2.24%E -1.16%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-09 02:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.47%EV -10.19%E -5.60%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.53%EV -2.24%E -1.16%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-09 02:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.08%EV -10.19%E -5.60%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.92%EV -3.76%E -1.98%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-09 02:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -11.18%E -6.21%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV +1.31%E +0.653%K +1.31%G +0.017% | 5.6% | 2026-03-09 02:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -11.18%E -6.21%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV +1.31%E +0.653%K +1.31%G +0.017% | 5.6% | 2026-03-09 02:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -11.18%E -6.21%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -3.25%E -1.70%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-09 02:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.38%EV -13.15%E -7.47%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.62%EV -5.79%E -3.11%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-09 02:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -13.64%E -7.80%K -18.19%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV +1.31%E +0.653%K +1.31%G +0.017% | 7.1% | 2026-03-09 02:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -14.63%E -8.46%K -20.04%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV +1.31%E +0.653%K +1.31%G +0.017% | 7.8% | 2026-03-09 02:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -17.59%E -10.53%K -26.25%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV +6.37%E +3.03%K +5.79%G +0.369% | 7.5% | 2026-03-09 02:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.59% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.41% | 0.8% | 2026-03-09 02:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.11% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.89% | 0.9% | 2026-03-09 02:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.27% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.73% | 1.6% | 2026-03-09 02:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.65% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.35% | 1.9% | 2026-03-09 02:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.61% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.39% | 4.4% | 2026-03-09 02:50 |