Language:English
Jacob Fearnley v Taylor Fritz
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jacob Fearnley (Local)
Prediction 10.83%9.23fair odd
EV +40.83%
Edge +3.14%
Kelly +3.40%
Growth +1.39%
assuming max odds 13.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.47%12.71%10.63%22.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.207.879.0013.0023.81%12.71%11.11%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Taylor Fritz (Visit)
Prediction 89.17%1.12fair odd
EV +8.78%
Edge +7.20%
Kelly +39.93%
Growth +3.51%
assuming max odds 1.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.49%87.29%89.37%92.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.091.061.2298.04%91.51%94.34%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jacob Fearnley (Local): 10.83%; Taylor Fritz (Visit): 89.17%. For Jacob Fearnley (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.23. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +40.83%.
Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -54.50%E -12.98%K -17.03%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV +8.78%E +7.20%K +39.93%G +3.51% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 02:11 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.03I 19.88%NM 19.26%EV -45.51%E -9.05%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.74%EV +7.00%E +5.83%K +35.00%G +2.45% | 3.2% | 2026-03-08 02:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -49.08%E -10.44%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV +7.00%E +5.83%K +35.00%G +2.45% | 4.6% | 2026-03-08 02:11 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -50.17%E -10.91%K -13.94%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV +7.00%E +5.83%K +35.00%G +2.45% | 5.1% | 2026-03-08 02:13 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -51.25%E -11.39%K -14.64%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV +7.00%E +5.83%K +35.00%G +2.45% | 5.6% | 2026-03-08 02:07 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.96I 20.16%NM 19.35%EV -46.27%E -9.33%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.65%EV +6.11%E +5.13%K +32.15%G +1.96% | 4.2% | 2026-03-08 02:12 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.96I 20.16%NM 19.35%EV -46.27%E -9.33%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.65%EV +6.11%E +5.13%K +32.15%G +1.96% | 4.2% | 2026-03-08 02:11 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.00%EV -48.43%E -10.18%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.00%EV +6.11%E +5.13%K +32.15%G +1.96% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 02:06 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -51.25%E -11.39%K -14.64%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV +6.11%E +5.13%K +32.15%G +1.96% | 6.3% | 2026-03-08 02:03 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -51.25%E -11.39%K -14.64%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV +6.11%E +5.13%K +32.15%G +1.96% | 6.3% | 2026-03-08 02:07 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -53.96%E -12.70%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV +6.11%E +5.13%K +32.15%G +1.96% | 7.6% | 2026-03-08 02:07 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -53.96%E -12.70%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV +6.11%E +5.13%K +32.15%G +1.96% | 7.6% | 2026-03-08 02:07 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -46.92%E -9.58%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV +5.22%E +4.42%K +28.98%G +1.51% | 5.2% | 2026-03-08 02:07 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -49.08%E -10.44%K -13.27%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV +5.22%E +4.42%K +28.98%G +1.51% | 6.0% | 2026-03-08 02:07 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -54.50%E -12.98%K -17.03%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV +5.22%E +4.42%K +28.98%G +1.51% | 8.6% | 2026-03-08 02:11 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -44.75%E -8.77%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV +3.43%E +2.96%K +21.46%G +0.737% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 02:11 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.59%E -4.29%K -65.59%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-08 02:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.59%E -4.29%K -65.59%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +8.33%E +0.833%K +0.926%G +0.077% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-08 02:18 |
| Coral🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +8.33%E +0.833%K +0.926%G +0.077% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +2.91%E +0.307%K +0.343%G +0.010% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +2.91%E +0.307%K +0.343%G +0.010% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-08 02:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +2.91%E +0.307%K +0.343%G +0.010% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-08 02:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-08 02:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.81%EV -5.21%E -0.595%K -0.672%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.19%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 02:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.81%EV -5.21%E -0.595%K -0.672%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.19%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 02:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -7.92%E -0.932%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -13.34%E -1.67%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -13.34%E -1.67%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.47%EV +40.83%E +3.14%K +3.40%G +1.39% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 92.53%EV -6.37%E -6.07%K -127.49%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 12.20I 8.20%NM 7.92%EV +32.16%E +2.64%K +2.87%G +0.924% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 92.08%EV -6.37%E -6.07%K -127.49%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +19.16%E +1.74%K +1.92%G +0.367% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -6.37%E -6.07%K -127.49%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -6.37%E -6.07%K -127.49%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -6.37%E -6.07%K -127.49%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -6.37%E -6.07%K -127.49%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -7.92%E -0.932%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -6.37%E -6.07%K -127.49%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -13.34%E -1.67%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -6.37%E -6.07%K -127.49%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -13.34%E -1.67%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -6.37%E -6.07%K -127.49%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -13.34%E -1.67%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -6.37%E -6.07%K -127.49%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV +2.91%E +0.307%K +0.343%G +0.010% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -7.27%E -6.99%K -181.66%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -7.27%E -6.99%K -181.66%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -13.34%E -1.67%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 88.50%EV -7.27%E -6.99%K -181.66%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-08 02:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -13.34%E -1.67%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 88.50%EV -7.27%E -6.99%K -181.66%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV +8.33%E +0.833%K +0.926%G +0.077% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -8.16%E -7.92%K -271.94%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV +8.33%E +0.833%K +0.926%G +0.077% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -8.16%E -7.92%K -271.94%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.78%EV +2.91%E +0.307%K +0.343%G +0.010% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.22%EV -8.16%E -7.92%K -271.94%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-08 02:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV +2.91%E +0.307%K +0.343%G +0.010% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.30%EV -9.05%E -8.87%K -452.49%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.98% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 92.02% | -7.1% | 2026-03-08 02:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.21% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.79% | 0.6% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 1.0% | 2026-03-08 02:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.98% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.02% | 1.3% | 2026-03-08 02:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.19% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 91.81% | 1.8% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |
| Novig◎ | 9.43I 10.60%NM 9.93% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.07% | 6.8% | 2026-03-08 02:19 |