L’École des cotes

Jacob Fearnley v Taylor Fritz

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-08 03:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

55 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Jacob Fearnley (Local)

Prévision 10.83%9.23cote équitable
EV +40.83%
Avantage +3.14%
Kelly +3.40%
Croissance +1.39%

avec la cote maximale 13.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
7.47%12.71%10.63%22.51%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.207.879.0013.0023.81%12.71%11.11%7.69%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Taylor Fritz (Visiteur)

Prévision 89.17%1.12cote équitable
EV +8.78%
Avantage +7.20%
Kelly +39.93%
Croissance +3.51%

avec la cote maximale 1.22

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
77.49%87.29%89.37%92.53%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.021.091.061.2298.04%91.51%94.34%81.97%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (55 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
PlayUp4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -54.50%E -12.98%K -17.03%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV +8.78%E +7.20%K +39.93%G +3.51%5.8%2026-03-08 02:11
Pinnacle5.03I 19.88%NM 19.26%EV -45.51%E -9.05%K -11.29%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 80.74%EV +7.00%E +5.83%K +35.00%G +2.45%3.2%2026-03-08 02:14
Bally Bet4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -49.08%E -10.44%K -13.27%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV +7.00%E +5.83%K +35.00%G +2.45%4.6%2026-03-08 02:11
Unibet (FR)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -50.17%E -10.91%K -13.94%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV +7.00%E +5.83%K +35.00%G +2.45%5.1%2026-03-08 02:13
William Hill4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -51.25%E -11.39%K -14.64%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV +7.00%E +5.83%K +35.00%G +2.45%5.6%2026-03-08 02:07
BetOnline.ag4.96I 20.16%NM 19.35%EV -46.27%E -9.33%K -11.68%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.65%EV +6.11%E +5.13%K +32.15%G +1.96%4.2%2026-03-08 02:12
LowVig.ag4.96I 20.16%NM 19.35%EV -46.27%E -9.33%K -11.68%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.65%EV +6.11%E +5.13%K +32.15%G +1.96%4.2%2026-03-08 02:11
GTbets4.76I 21.01%NM 20.00%EV -48.43%E -10.18%K -12.88%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.00%EV +6.11%E +5.13%K +32.15%G +1.96%5.0%2026-03-08 02:06
Codere (IT)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -51.25%E -11.39%K -14.64%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV +6.11%E +5.13%K +32.15%G +1.96%6.3%2026-03-08 02:03
NetBet (FR)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -51.25%E -11.39%K -14.64%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV +6.11%E +5.13%K +32.15%G +1.96%6.3%2026-03-08 02:07
Ladbrokes (AU)4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -53.96%E -12.70%K -16.60%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV +6.11%E +5.13%K +32.15%G +1.96%7.6%2026-03-08 02:07
Neds4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -53.96%E -12.70%K -16.60%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV +6.11%E +5.13%K +32.15%G +1.96%7.6%2026-03-08 02:07
Bet Right4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -46.92%E -9.58%K -12.03%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV +5.22%E +4.42%K +28.98%G +1.51%5.2%2026-03-08 02:07
Betr (AU)4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -49.08%E -10.44%K -13.27%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV +5.22%E +4.42%K +28.98%G +1.51%6.0%2026-03-08 02:07
Fanatics4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -54.50%E -12.98%K -17.03%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV +5.22%E +4.42%K +28.98%G +1.51%8.6%2026-03-08 02:11
SportsBet5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -44.75%E -8.77%K -10.91%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV +3.43%E +2.96%K +21.46%G +0.737%5.8%2026-03-08 02:11
PointsBet (AU)9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.59%E -4.29%K -65.59%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-08 02:20
Winamax (FR)9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.59%E -4.29%K -65.59%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-08 02:19
Bovada10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +8.33%E +0.833%K +0.926%G +0.077%1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-08 02:18
Coral10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +8.33%E +0.833%K +0.926%G +0.077%1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-08 02:19
FanDuel9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +2.91%E +0.307%K +0.343%G +0.010%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-08 02:19
Unibet9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +2.91%E +0.307%K +0.343%G +0.010%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-08 02:20
Ladbrokes (UK)9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +2.91%E +0.307%K +0.343%G +0.010%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-08 02:19
Unibet (UK)9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-08 02:19
Unibet (SE)9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-08 02:19
Casumo9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-08 02:19
Unibet (NL)9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-08 02:19
theScore Bet9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-08 02:20
ATG (SE)9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-08 02:20
betPARX9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-08 02:19
Svenska Spel9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-08 02:19
Hard Rock Bet9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-08 02:19
NordicBet8.75I 11.43%NM 10.81%EV -5.21%E -0.595%K -0.672%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.19%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-08 02:20
Betsson8.75I 11.43%NM 10.81%EV -5.21%E -0.595%K -0.672%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.19%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-08 02:20
TABtouch8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -7.92%E -0.932%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-08 02:19
Betclic (FR)8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -13.34%E -1.67%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-08 02:19
Caesars8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -13.34%E -1.67%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.48%E -5.17%K -91.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-08 02:19
BoyleSports13.00I 7.69%NM 7.47%EV +40.83%E +3.14%K +3.40%G +1.39%1.05I 95.24%NM 92.53%EV -6.37%E -6.07%K -127.49%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-08 02:19
DraftKings12.20I 8.20%NM 7.92%EV +32.16%E +2.64%K +2.87%G +0.924%1.05I 95.24%NM 92.08%EV -6.37%E -6.07%K -127.49%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-08 02:19
Betway11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +19.16%E +1.74%K +1.92%G +0.367%1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -6.37%E -6.07%K -127.49%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-08 02:19
888sport9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -6.37%E -6.07%K -127.49%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 02:19
Mr Green (SE)9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -6.37%E -6.07%K -127.49%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 02:19
888sport (SE)9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -6.37%E -6.07%K -127.49%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 02:19
Bet Victor8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -7.92%E -0.932%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -6.37%E -6.07%K -127.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-08 02:19
Virgin Bet8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -13.34%E -1.67%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -6.37%E -6.07%K -127.49%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-08 02:19
Grosvenor8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -13.34%E -1.67%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -6.37%E -6.07%K -127.49%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-08 02:19
LiveScore Bet8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -13.34%E -1.67%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -6.37%E -6.07%K -127.49%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-08 02:19
Winamax (DE)9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV +2.91%E +0.307%K +0.343%G +0.010%1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -7.27%E -6.99%K -181.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-08 02:19
BetMGM9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -2.50%E -0.278%K -0.313%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -7.27%E -6.99%K -181.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-08 02:19
LeoVegas8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -13.34%E -1.67%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 88.50%EV -7.27%E -6.99%K -181.66%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-08 02:20
LeoVegas (SE)8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -13.34%E -1.67%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 88.50%EV -7.27%E -6.99%K -181.66%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-08 02:19
Tipico (DE)10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV +8.33%E +0.833%K +0.926%G +0.077%1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -8.16%E -7.92%K -271.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 02:19
TAB10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV +8.33%E +0.833%K +0.926%G +0.077%1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -8.16%E -7.92%K -271.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 02:19
Paddy Power9.50I 10.53%NM 9.78%EV +2.91%E +0.307%K +0.343%G +0.010%1.03I 97.09%NM 90.22%EV -8.16%E -7.92%K -271.94%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-08 02:20
Fliff9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV +2.91%E +0.307%K +0.343%G +0.010%1.02I 98.04%NM 90.30%EV -9.05%E -8.87%K -452.49%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-08 02:19
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets13.50I 7.41%NM 7.98%1.17I 85.47%NM 92.02%-7.1%2026-03-08 02:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)16.00I 6.25%NM 6.21%1.06I 94.34%NM 93.79%0.6%2026-03-08 02:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60%1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40%1.0%2026-03-08 02:20
Matchbook16.50I 6.06%NM 5.98%1.05I 95.24%NM 94.02%1.3%2026-03-08 02:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)12.00I 8.33%NM 8.19%1.07I 93.46%NM 91.81%1.8%2026-03-08 02:19
Novig9.43I 10.60%NM 9.93%1.04I 96.15%NM 90.07%6.8%2026-03-08 02:19