Language:English
Gael Monfils v Felix Auger-Aliassime
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Gael Monfils (Local)
Prediction 19.20%5.21fair odd
EV +5.63%
Edge +1.02%
Kelly +1.25%
Growth +0.070%
assuming max odds 5.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.17%19.16%19.14%21.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.864.825.5022.73%20.58%20.75%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Felix Auger-Aliassime (Visit)
Prediction 80.80%1.24fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -10.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.85%80.84%80.86%82.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.181.181.2189.29%84.91%84.75%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gael Monfils (Local): 19.20%; Felix Auger-Aliassime (Visit): 80.80%. For Gael Monfils (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.21. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.63%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +5.63%E +1.02%K +1.25%G +0.070% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -7.89%E -6.92%K -56.38%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-06 22:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.46I 18.32%NM 17.77%EV +4.86%E +0.890%K +1.09%G +0.053% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.23%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-06 22:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV +1.79%E +0.337%K +0.415%G +0.007% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.79%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-06 22:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV +1.79%E +0.337%K +0.415%G +0.007% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.55%EV -9.51%E -8.49%K -79.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-06 22:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.48%EV +0.826%E +0.157%K +0.194%G +0.002% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.52%EV -3.85%E -3.24%K -20.28%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-06 22:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -0.134%E -0.026%K -0.032%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 22:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.38%EV -1.09%E -0.213%K -0.264%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.62%EV -6.28%E -5.41%K -39.24%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 22:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -2.05%E -0.403%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -6.28%E -5.41%K -39.24%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 22:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.01I 19.96%NM 19.45%EV -3.78%E -0.755%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 80.55%EV -2.24%E -1.85%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-03-06 22:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 22:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 22:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 22:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 22:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 22:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 22:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 22:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 22:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.28%E -5.41%K -39.24%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-06 22:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.28%E -5.41%K -39.24%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-06 22:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.89%E -6.92%K -56.38%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 22:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.89%E -6.92%K -56.38%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 22:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.25%EV -4.94%E -0.997%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.75%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 22:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -5.90%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -3.85%E -3.24%K -20.28%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-06 22:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.90%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 22:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -5.90%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -6.28%E -5.41%K -39.24%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-06 22:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -5.90%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -6.28%E -5.41%K -39.24%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-06 22:54 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.86I 20.58%NM 19.54%EV -6.66%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.46%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 22:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -6.86%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-06 22:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -6.86%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-06 22:19 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.30%EV -6.86%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.70%EV -6.28%E -5.41%K -39.24%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-06 22:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.79I 20.88%NM 19.90%EV -8.01%E -1.67%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.10%EV -3.85%E -3.24%K -20.28%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 22:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.79I 20.88%NM 19.90%EV -8.01%E -1.67%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.10%EV -3.85%E -3.24%K -20.28%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 22:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-06 22:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-06 22:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-06 22:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-06 22:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-06 22:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-06 22:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-06 22:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-06 22:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-06 22:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-06 22:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-06 22:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-06 22:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-06 22:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-06 22:53 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 22:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 22:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 22:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -9.74%E -2.07%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-06 22:53 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.83%EV -10.70%E -2.30%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.17%EV -7.09%E -6.16%K -47.24%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-06 22:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -11.66%E -2.53%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.85%E -3.24%K -20.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 22:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -11.66%E -2.53%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-06 22:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -11.66%E -2.53%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-06 22:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -13.58%E -3.02%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-06 22:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -13.58%E -3.02%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 22:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -13.58%E -3.02%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 22:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -13.58%E -3.02%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 22:12 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -15.50%E -3.52%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-06 22:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -15.50%E -3.52%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.14%EV -6.28%E -5.41%K -39.24%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-06 22:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57% | 0.5% | 2026-03-06 22:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57% | 0.5% | 2026-03-06 22:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.29% | 0.8% | 2026-03-06 22:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.29% | 0.8% | 2026-03-06 22:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.69% | 1.2% | 2026-03-06 22:55 |
| Novig◎ | 5.05I 19.80%NM 19.33% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 80.67% | 2.4% | 2026-03-06 22:54 |