L’École des cotes

Gael Monfils v Felix Auger-Aliassime

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-06 23:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

60 opérateurs (23 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Gael Monfils (Local)

Prévision 19.20%5.21cote équitable
EV +5.63%
Avantage +1.02%
Kelly +1.25%
Croissance +0.070%

avec la cote maximale 5.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
17.17%19.16%19.14%21.15%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.404.864.825.5022.73%20.58%20.75%18.18%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Felix Auger-Aliassime (Visiteur)

Prévision 80.80%1.24cote équitable
EV -2.24%
Avantage -1.85%
Kelly -10.66%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.21

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
78.85%80.84%80.86%82.83%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.121.181.181.2189.29%84.91%84.75%82.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (60 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
BoyleSports5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +5.63%E +1.02%K +1.25%G +0.070%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -7.89%E -6.92%K -56.38%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-06 22:19
1xBet5.46I 18.32%NM 17.77%EV +4.86%E +0.890%K +1.09%G +0.053%1.18I 84.75%NM 82.23%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-06 22:54
Winamax (DE)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV +1.79%E +0.337%K +0.415%G +0.007%1.18I 84.75%NM 81.79%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-06 22:55
Tipico (DE)5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV +1.79%E +0.337%K +0.415%G +0.007%1.12I 89.29%NM 82.55%EV -9.51%E -8.49%K -79.25%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-06 22:20
Coolbet5.25I 19.05%NM 18.48%EV +0.826%E +0.157%K +0.194%G +0.002%1.19I 84.03%NM 81.52%EV -3.85%E -3.24%K -20.28%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-06 22:19
FanDuel5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -0.134%E -0.026%K -0.032%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-06 22:19
Marathon Bet5.15I 19.42%NM 18.38%EV -1.09%E -0.213%K -0.264%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.62%EV -6.28%E -5.41%K -39.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-06 22:45
SportsBet5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -2.05%E -0.403%K -0.501%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -6.28%E -5.41%K -39.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-06 22:19
Pinnacle5.01I 19.96%NM 19.45%EV -3.78%E -0.755%K -0.943%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 80.55%EV -2.24%E -1.85%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.6%2026-03-06 22:20
Bovada5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-06 22:19
Unibet (FR)5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-06 22:44
Unibet (UK)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-06 22:20
Winamax (FR)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-06 22:55
888sport5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-06 22:19
William Hill5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-06 22:19
888sport (SE)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-06 22:19
Mr Green (SE)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-06 22:20
PointsBet (AU)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.28%E -5.41%K -39.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-06 22:20
Codere (IT)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.28%E -5.41%K -39.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-06 22:20
Paddy Power5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.89%E -6.92%K -56.38%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-06 22:19
Caesars5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -3.98%E -0.795%K -0.994%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.89%E -6.92%K -56.38%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-06 22:19
DraftKings4.95I 20.20%NM 19.25%EV -4.94%E -0.997%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.75%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-06 22:54
BetRivers4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -5.90%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -3.85%E -3.24%K -20.28%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-06 22:44
Bet Right4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.90%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-06 22:45
Betsson4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -5.90%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -6.28%E -5.41%K -39.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-06 22:55
NordicBet4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -5.90%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -6.28%E -5.41%K -39.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-06 22:54
GTbets4.86I 20.58%NM 19.54%EV -6.66%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.46%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-06 22:54
Betr (AU)4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -6.86%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-06 22:20
theScore Bet4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -6.86%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-06 22:19
Fliff4.85I 20.62%NM 19.30%EV -6.86%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.70%EV -6.28%E -5.41%K -39.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-06 22:55
BetOnline.ag4.79I 20.88%NM 19.90%EV -8.01%E -1.67%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.10%EV -3.85%E -3.24%K -20.28%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-06 22:19
LowVig.ag4.79I 20.88%NM 19.90%EV -8.01%E -1.67%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.10%EV -3.85%E -3.24%K -20.28%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-06 22:19
Casumo4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-06 22:55
Unibet (NL)4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-06 22:55
Unibet4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-06 22:54
LiveScore Bet4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-06 22:55
LeoVegas (SE)4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-06 22:54
LeoVegas4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-06 22:55
Unibet (SE)4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-06 22:54
Grosvenor4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-06 22:54
TABtouch4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-06 22:55
Bally Bet4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-06 22:55
betPARX4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-06 22:54
ATG (SE)4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-06 22:54
Svenska Spel4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-06 22:55
Hard Rock Bet4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-06 22:53
Betway4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-06 22:20
BetMGM4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-06 22:19
BetUS4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-06 22:20
NetBet (FR)4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -9.74%E -2.07%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-06 22:53
Fanatics4.65I 21.51%NM 19.83%EV -10.70%E -2.30%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.17%EV -7.09%E -6.16%K -47.24%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-06 22:54
PlayUp4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -11.66%E -2.53%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.85%E -3.24%K -20.28%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-06 22:19
Ladbrokes (UK)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -11.66%E -2.53%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 22:19
Coral4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -11.66%E -2.53%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 22:19
Virgin Bet4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -13.58%E -3.02%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-06 22:55
Neds4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -13.58%E -3.02%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-06 22:19
Ladbrokes (AU)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -13.58%E -3.02%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-06 22:19
Bet Victor4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -13.58%E -3.02%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.47%E -4.68%K -32.18%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-06 22:12
TAB4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -15.50%E -3.52%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -4.66%E -3.95%K -25.90%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-06 22:20
Betclic (FR)4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -15.50%E -3.52%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 79.14%EV -6.28%E -5.41%K -39.24%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-06 22:54
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43%1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57%0.5%2026-03-06 22:55
Matchbook5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43%1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57%0.5%2026-03-06 22:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71%1.22I 81.97%NM 81.29%0.8%2026-03-06 22:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71%1.22I 81.97%NM 81.29%0.8%2026-03-06 22:55
Smarkets5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31%1.21I 82.64%NM 81.69%1.2%2026-03-06 22:55
Novig5.05I 19.80%NM 19.33%1.21I 82.64%NM 80.67%2.4%2026-03-06 22:54