Language:English
Frances Tiafoe v Alexander Zverev
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Frances Tiafoe (Local)
Prediction 28.96%3.45fair odd
EV +0.774%
Edge +0.223%
Kelly +0.312%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 3.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.19%28.93%28.88%30.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.273.253.4832.26%30.59%30.77%28.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alexander Zverev (Visit)
Prediction 71.04%1.41fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -2.49%
Kelly -9.40%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.84%71.07%71.12%72.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.341.331.3678.74%74.69%74.91%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frances Tiafoe (Local): 28.96%; Alexander Zverev (Visit): 71.04%. For Frances Tiafoe (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.45. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.48, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.774%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.48I 28.74%NM 28.10%EV +0.774%E +0.223%K +0.312%G +0.002% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.90%EV -3.38%E -2.49%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-03-10 19:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.46%EV +0.195%E +0.056%K +0.079%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.54%EV -6.94%E -5.29%K -22.37%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.13%EV -0.094%E -0.027%K -0.039%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.88%EV -4.09%E -3.03%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -0.094%E -0.027%K -0.039%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -6.22%E -4.72%K -19.45%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -1.54%E -0.454%K -0.643%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.51%E -4.15%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -1.54%E -0.454%K -0.643%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.65%E -5.88%K -25.49%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -1.54%E -0.454%K -0.643%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -9.78%E -7.70%K -36.21%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45%EV -2.41%E -0.715%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55%EV -4.80%E -3.59%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45%EV -2.41%E -0.715%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55%EV -4.80%E -3.59%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -2.99%E -0.893%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.13%EV -3.38%E -2.49%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -2.99%E -0.893%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -4.09%E -3.03%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-10 20:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -2.99%E -0.893%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.51%E -4.15%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.60%EV -3.86%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.40%EV -5.51%E -4.15%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-10 20:01 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.44%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.80%E -3.59%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-10 19:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.44%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.80%E -3.59%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.44%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.80%E -3.59%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-10 19:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.44%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.51%E -4.15%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.44%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.51%E -4.15%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.44%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.51%E -4.15%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-10 19:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.44%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.51%E -4.15%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.44%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.51%E -4.15%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-10 19:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.44%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.51%E -4.15%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-10 19:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.38%E -2.49%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-10 19:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.38%E -2.49%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-10 19:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.38%E -2.49%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-10 19:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.38%E -2.49%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-10 19:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.38%E -2.49%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-10 19:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.38%E -2.49%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-10 19:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.38%E -2.49%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-10 19:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.38%E -2.49%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-10 19:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.38%E -2.49%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-10 19:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.38%E -2.49%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-10 19:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.38%E -2.49%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-10 19:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.38%E -2.49%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-10 19:58 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.38%E -2.49%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-10 19:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.38%E -2.49%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-10 19:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.09%E -3.03%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-10 20:03 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -4.80%E -3.59%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.51%E -4.15%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.51%E -4.15%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.51%E -4.15%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.51%E -4.15%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.51%E -4.15%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -6.22%E -4.72%K -19.45%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-10 20:04 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -5.89%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -6.22%E -4.72%K -19.45%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.48%EV -6.47%E -2.00%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.52%EV -4.09%E -3.03%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -7.33%E -2.29%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.38%E -2.49%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-10 19:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.33%E -2.29%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.09%E -3.03%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.33%E -2.29%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.09%E -3.03%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-10 20:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.33%E -2.29%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.51%E -4.15%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.33%E -2.29%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.51%E -4.15%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.33%E -2.29%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.51%E -4.15%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.33%E -2.29%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -6.22%E -4.72%K -19.45%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -8.78%E -2.79%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.38%E -2.49%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -8.78%E -2.79%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -5.51%E -4.15%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-10 19:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -8.78%E -2.79%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -6.22%E -4.72%K -19.45%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -8.78%E -2.79%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -6.22%E -4.72%K -19.45%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.23%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.51%E -4.15%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-10 20:02 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.23%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.51%E -4.15%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-10 19:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -10.23%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.29%EV -6.94%E -5.29%K -22.37%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.61% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.39% | 0.2% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 0.6% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 0.6% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |
| Novig◎ | 3.56I 28.09%NM 27.35% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.65% | 2.7% | 2026-03-10 20:05 |