Language:English
Kamil Majchrzak v Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Kamil Majchrzak (Local)
Prediction 36.20%2.76fair odd
EV +0.993%
Edge +0.356%
Kelly +0.555%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 2.79
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.52%36.17%36.22%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.482.602.602.7940.32%38.51%38.46%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Visit)
Prediction 63.80%1.57fair odd
EV -4.30%
Edge -2.86%
Kelly -8.59%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.50%63.83%63.78%65.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.481.481.5070.42%67.67%67.57%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kamil Majchrzak (Local): 36.20%; Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Visit): 63.80%. For Kamil Majchrzak (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.76. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.79, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.993%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.79I 35.84%NM 34.81%EV +0.993%E +0.356%K +0.555%G +0.006% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.19%EV -4.94%E -3.31%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%EV +0.631%E +0.227%K +0.354%G +0.002% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41%EV -6.21%E -4.23%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-18 10:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.455%E -0.165%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.49%E -5.16%K -16.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV -1.54%E -0.567%K -0.896%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -4.94%E -3.31%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV -1.54%E -0.567%K -0.896%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -4.94%E -3.31%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -2.26%E -0.839%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.30%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -3.35%E -1.26%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -5.57%E -3.77%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.90%EV -3.71%E -1.40%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.10%EV -4.94%E -3.31%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.07%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.30%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.07%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.30%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-18 10:02 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.07%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.30%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-18 10:04 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -4.07%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -4.94%E -3.31%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-18 09:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.07%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.57%E -3.77%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 35.92%EV -4.44%E -1.68%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.08%EV -5.57%E -3.77%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-18 09:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 35.29%EV -4.44%E -1.68%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.71%EV -8.13%E -5.64%K -18.47%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -4.80%E -1.82%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.94%E -3.31%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -4.80%E -1.82%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.94%E -3.31%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-18 10:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.16%E -1.97%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.30%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-18 09:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.16%E -1.97%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.13%E -5.64%K -18.47%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.61I 38.31%NM 36.19%EV -5.52%E -2.12%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.81%EV -5.57%E -3.77%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.30%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.30%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.30%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.30%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-18 10:02 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.30%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.30%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.30%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.57%E -3.77%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.57%E -3.77%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.57%E -3.77%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.57%E -3.77%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-18 09:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.57%E -3.77%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.57%E -3.77%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.57%E -3.77%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.57%E -3.77%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-18 10:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -6.85%E -4.69%K -14.89%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-18 10:01 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.49%E -5.16%K -16.64%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-18 09:58 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.49%E -5.16%K -16.64%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -8.13%E -5.64%K -18.47%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-18 09:58 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.07%EV -6.97%E -2.71%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.93%EV -7.49%E -5.16%K -16.64%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-18 09:58 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -7.69%E -3.02%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -5.57%E -3.77%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -7.69%E -3.02%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -5.57%E -3.77%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -7.69%E -3.02%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -5.57%E -3.77%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -7.69%E -3.02%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -5.57%E -3.77%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -7.69%E -3.02%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -5.57%E -3.77%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -7.69%E -3.02%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -5.57%E -3.77%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -7.69%E -3.02%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -6.21%E -4.23%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -7.69%E -3.02%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -6.21%E -4.23%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -7.69%E -3.02%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -7.49%E -5.16%K -16.64%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -7.69%E -3.02%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -7.49%E -5.16%K -16.64%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.50%E -3.80%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.30%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.50%E -3.80%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.30%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.50%E -3.80%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.30%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.50%E -3.80%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.30%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -9.50%E -3.80%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.57%E -3.77%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -9.50%E -3.80%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.57%E -3.77%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -9.50%E -3.80%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.57%E -3.77%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -9.50%E -3.80%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -7.49%E -5.16%K -16.64%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-18 10:06 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -9.50%E -3.80%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -8.13%E -5.64%K -18.47%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -9.50%E -3.80%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -8.13%E -5.64%K -18.47%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.41%EV -10.23%E -4.12%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 63.59%EV -9.40%E -6.62%K -22.38%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.16% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.84% | 0.1% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.16% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.84% | 0.1% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99% | 0.6% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99% | 0.6% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 34.87% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.13% | 1.7% | 2026-05-18 10:05 |
| Novig◎ | 2.71I 36.90%NM 35.63% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.37% | 3.6% | 2026-05-18 10:06 |