Language:English
Aleksandar Kovacevic v Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aleksandar Kovacevic (Local)
Prediction 31.37%3.19fair odd
EV +1.94%
Edge +0.598%
Kelly +0.864%
Growth +0.017%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.65%31.40%31.48%33.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.953.003.2535.71%33.85%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Visit)
Prediction 68.63%1.46fair odd
EV -1.17%
Edge -0.812%
Kelly -2.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.04%68.60%68.52%70.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.391.401.4475.76%71.80%71.68%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aleksandar Kovacevic (Local): 31.37%; Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Visit): 68.63%. For Aleksandar Kovacevic (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.19. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.94%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV +1.94%E +0.598%K +0.864%G +0.017% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.35%EV -5.97%E -4.36%K -16.14%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.13%EV +0.376%E +0.118%K +0.171%G +0.001% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.87%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-21 14:56 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.92%EV -1.19%E -0.379%K -0.555%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.08%EV -3.23%E -2.29%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-05-21 14:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.76%E -0.891%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-21 14:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -2.76%E -0.891%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.97%E -4.36%K -16.14%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 14:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.76%E -0.891%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.66%E -4.90%K -18.50%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -2.76%E -0.891%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -7.35%E -5.44%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -2.76%E -0.891%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -9.41%E -7.13%K -29.39%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.94%EV -3.39%E -1.10%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.06%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.32%EV -3.39%E -1.10%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.68%EV -8.03%E -5.99%K -23.62%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -3.70%E -1.21%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -3.91%E -2.80%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -3.70%E -1.21%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -3.91%E -2.80%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.24%EV -4.02%E -1.31%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.76%EV -4.60%E -3.31%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -4.33%E -1.42%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -3.91%E -2.80%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -4.33%E -1.42%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -4.60%E -3.31%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-21 14:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -4.33%E -1.42%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -4.60%E -3.31%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.22%EV -4.64%E -1.53%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.78%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.90%E -1.97%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.91%E -2.80%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-21 14:58 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.90%E -1.97%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.91%E -2.80%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-21 14:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.90%E -1.97%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.91%E -2.80%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.90%E -1.97%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.90%E -1.97%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.90%E -1.97%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.90%E -1.97%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.90%E -1.97%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.90%E -1.97%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -5.90%E -1.97%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.97%E -4.36%K -16.14%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.90%E -1.97%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.66%E -4.90%K -18.50%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -5.90%E -1.97%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.35%E -5.44%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -5.90%E -1.97%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.35%E -5.44%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -5.90%E -1.97%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.35%E -5.44%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -5.90%E -1.97%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.35%E -5.44%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -5.90%E -1.97%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.72%E -6.56%K -26.42%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -7.47%E -2.53%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.91%E -2.80%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -7.47%E -2.53%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -4.60%E -3.31%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -7.47%E -2.53%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -6.66%E -4.90%K -18.50%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.03%E -3.12%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.91%E -2.80%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.03%E -3.12%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.91%E -2.80%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.03%E -3.12%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.91%E -2.80%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.03%E -3.12%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.91%E -2.80%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.03%E -3.12%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.91%E -2.80%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.03%E -3.12%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.91%E -2.80%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.03%E -3.12%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.29%E -3.83%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -9.03%E -3.12%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.66%E -4.90%K -18.50%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-21 14:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -9.66%E -3.35%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.66%E -4.90%K -18.50%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-21 14:51 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -12.17%E -4.35%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -1.17%E -0.812%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -12.17%E -4.35%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -1.17%E -0.812%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -12.17%E -4.35%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -1.17%E -0.812%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -12.17%E -4.35%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -1.17%E -0.812%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-21 14:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -12.17%E -4.35%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -1.86%E -1.30%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -12.17%E -4.35%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -1.86%E -1.30%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -12.17%E -4.35%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -1.86%E -1.30%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -12.17%E -4.35%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -1.86%E -1.30%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -12.17%E -4.35%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -1.86%E -1.30%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -12.17%E -4.35%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -1.86%E -1.30%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -12.17%E -4.35%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -1.86%E -1.30%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -12.17%E -4.35%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -1.86%E -1.30%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -12.17%E -4.35%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -1.86%E -1.30%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -12.17%E -4.35%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -1.86%E -1.30%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -12.17%E -4.35%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -1.86%E -1.30%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -12.17%E -4.35%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -1.86%E -1.30%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -12.17%E -4.35%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -1.86%E -1.30%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 0.7% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 0.7% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 0.7% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 0.7% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |
| Novig◎ | 3.22I 31.06%NM 30.45% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.55% | 2.0% | 2026-05-21 14:59 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.59% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.41% | 2.2% | 2026-05-21 15:00 |