Language:English
Valentin Royer v Stefanos Tsitsipas
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Valentin Royer (Local)
Prediction 27.14%3.69fair odd
EV +1.76%
Edge +0.469%
Kelly +0.639%
Growth +0.011%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.50%27.14%27.08%30.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.513.503.7532.26%28.48%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (Visit)
Prediction 72.86%1.37fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -6.94%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.82%72.86%72.92%74.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.291.291.3480.65%77.30%77.52%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Valentin Royer (Local): 27.14%; Stefanos Tsitsipas (Visit): 72.86%. For Valentin Royer (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.69. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.76%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +1.76%E +0.469%K +0.639%G +0.011% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -6.00%E -4.65%K -20.71%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-12 19:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +1.76%E +0.469%K +0.639%G +0.011% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -6.00%E -4.65%K -20.71%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-14 15:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.50%EV +1.49%E +0.397%K +0.542%G +0.008% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.50%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.05%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-14 14:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +0.400%E +0.108%K +0.148%G +0.001% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-12 19:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +0.400%E +0.108%K +0.148%G +0.001% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-12 19:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +0.400%E +0.108%K +0.148%G +0.001% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-12 19:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +0.400%E +0.108%K +0.148%G +0.001% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-12 19:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +0.400%E +0.108%K +0.148%G +0.001% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-12 19:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +0.400%E +0.108%K +0.148%G +0.001% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-12 19:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +0.400%E +0.108%K +0.148%G +0.001% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-12 19:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +0.400%E +0.108%K +0.148%G +0.001% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-12 19:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +0.400%E +0.108%K +0.148%G +0.001% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-12 19:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +0.400%E +0.108%K +0.148%G +0.001% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-12 19:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +0.400%E +0.108%K +0.148%G +0.001% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-12 19:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +0.400%E +0.108%K +0.148%G +0.001% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-12 19:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +0.400%E +0.108%K +0.148%G +0.001% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-12 19:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +0.400%E +0.108%K +0.148%G +0.001% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-12 19:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.16%EV -0.414%E -0.113%K -0.155%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.84%EV -5.28%E -4.06%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-14 12:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.16%EV -0.414%E -0.113%K -0.155%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.84%EV -5.28%E -4.06%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-14 12:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -0.956%E -0.262%K -0.361%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.44%EV -3.82%E -2.89%K -11.93%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-14 15:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41%EV -0.956%E -0.262%K -0.361%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.59%EV -4.55%E -3.47%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-14 11:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -0.956%E -0.262%K -0.361%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -6.00%E -4.65%K -20.71%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-14 12:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -0.956%E -0.262%K -0.361%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.05%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-14 12:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV -2.31%E -0.643%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.02%EV -3.09%E -2.32%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-14 15:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -2.31%E -0.643%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -3.82%E -2.89%K -11.93%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-14 14:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -2.31%E -0.643%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.00%E -4.65%K -20.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 14:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -2.31%E -0.643%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -8.19%E -6.50%K -31.50%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-14 12:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -2.31%E -0.643%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -8.92%E -7.14%K -35.68%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-14 11:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.49%EV -2.86%E -0.798%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.51%EV -6.00%E -4.65%K -20.71%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-14 14:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV -3.67%E -1.03%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -4.55%E -3.47%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-14 15:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -5.03%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.55%E -3.47%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-14 15:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.03%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.28%E -4.06%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-14 11:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.03%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.28%E -4.06%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-14 14:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.03%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.28%E -4.06%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-14 15:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.03%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.00%E -4.65%K -20.71%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-14 13:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -5.03%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -8.92%E -7.14%K -35.68%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-14 12:49 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.16%EV -5.03%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.84%EV -9.65%E -7.78%K -40.20%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-14 15:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.38%E -1.85%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.28%E -4.06%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-14 15:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.38%E -1.85%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.28%E -4.06%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-14 14:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.38%E -1.85%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.28%E -4.06%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-14 15:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.38%E -1.85%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.28%E -4.06%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-14 14:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.38%E -1.85%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.28%E -4.06%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-14 14:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.70%EV -7.20%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.30%EV -4.55%E -3.47%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 15:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -7.74%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -4.55%E -3.47%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-14 11:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.74%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.28%E -4.06%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-14 11:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.74%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.28%E -4.06%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-14 11:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -7.74%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.00%E -4.65%K -20.71%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-14 15:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -7.74%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.00%E -4.65%K -20.71%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-14 12:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.45%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.09%E -2.32%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-14 12:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.45%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.09%E -2.32%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-14 12:04 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.45%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.09%E -2.32%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-14 12:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.45%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.09%E -2.32%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-14 12:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -11.81%E -3.63%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.09%E -2.32%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-14 12:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -11.81%E -3.63%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -6.00%E -4.65%K -20.71%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-14 14:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -11.81%E -3.63%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -6.00%E -4.65%K -20.71%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-14 11:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.26%EV -11.81%E -3.63%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.74%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.05%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-14 15:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -11.81%E -3.63%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.22%EV -8.92%E -7.14%K -35.68%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-14 12:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -11.81%E -3.63%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.22%EV -8.92%E -7.14%K -35.68%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-14 14:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -13.17%E -4.11%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -3.09%E -2.32%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-14 14:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -13.17%E -4.11%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -3.09%E -2.32%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-14 14:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.57%EV -13.17%E -4.11%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.43%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.05%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-14 15:08 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -15.88%E -5.12%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -2.36%E -1.76%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-14 14:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.71% | 0.4% | 2026-08-14 15:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.71% | 0.4% | 2026-08-14 15:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.71% | 0.4% | 2026-08-14 15:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.71% | 0.4% | 2026-08-14 15:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.15% | 1.2% | 2026-08-14 15:10 |
| Novig◎ | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.63% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.37% | 3.1% | 2026-08-14 15:10 |