Language:English
Tommy Paul v Hubert Hurkacz
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tommy Paul (Local)
Prediction 51.79%1.93fair odd
EV -1.60%
Edge -0.841%
Kelly -1.77%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.94%51.83%54.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.821.831.9058.14%54.87%54.64%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Hubert Hurkacz (Visit)
Prediction 48.21%2.07fair odd
EV +1.24%
Edge +0.590%
Kelly +1.13%
Growth +0.014%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.17%48.06%48.17%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.971.962.1053.48%50.89%51.02%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tommy Paul (Local): 51.79%; Hubert Hurkacz (Visit): 48.21%. For Hubert Hurkacz (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.07. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.24%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -10.40%E -6.01%K -14.25%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV +1.24%E +0.590%K +1.13%G +0.014% | 5.4% | 2026-08-15 17:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.93%EV -3.15%E -1.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%EV -2.62%E -1.30%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-15 21:14 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -5.74%E -3.15%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -2.62%E -1.30%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-15 21:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -6.78%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -2.62%E -1.30%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 20:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.67%EV -2.63%E -1.40%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 48.33%EV -3.10%E -1.54%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-15 20:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.08%EV -4.70%E -2.56%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.92%EV -3.58%E -1.79%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-15 21:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.58%E -1.79%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-15 18:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.78%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.58%E -1.79%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 14:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.78%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.58%E -1.79%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 10:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.78%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.58%E -1.79%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 20:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.78%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.58%E -1.79%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 16:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -8.33%E -4.71%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -3.58%E -1.79%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-15 21:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -10.40%E -6.01%K -14.25%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -3.58%E -1.79%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 16:44 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -10.40%E -6.01%K -14.25%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -3.58%E -1.79%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 16:44 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -10.92%E -6.35%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -3.58%E -1.79%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-15 14:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82%EV -4.19%E -2.26%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.18%EV -4.06%E -2.04%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-15 19:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -4.06%E -2.04%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-15 17:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -5.74%E -3.15%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -4.06%E -2.04%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 17:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.83%EV -4.70%E -2.56%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.17%EV -4.55%E -2.30%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-15 21:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -5.03%E -2.55%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-15 14:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -5.03%E -2.55%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-15 21:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -5.03%E -2.55%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-15 14:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -6.26%E -3.46%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -5.03%E -2.55%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-15 21:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -3.67%E -1.97%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -5.51%E -2.81%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 18:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -5.51%E -2.81%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-15 14:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -5.51%E -2.81%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-15 14:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -5.51%E -2.81%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-15 14:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -5.51%E -2.81%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-15 14:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -5.51%E -2.81%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-15 14:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -5.51%E -2.81%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-15 14:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -5.51%E -2.81%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-15 14:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -5.51%E -2.81%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-15 14:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -5.51%E -2.81%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-15 14:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -5.51%E -2.81%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-15 14:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -5.51%E -2.81%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-15 14:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -5.51%E -2.81%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-15 14:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.15%E -1.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.99%E -3.07%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 20:54 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.15%E -1.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.99%E -3.07%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 20:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.15%E -1.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.99%E -3.07%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 21:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.15%E -1.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.99%E -3.07%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 21:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.19%E -2.26%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.99%E -3.07%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 17:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.19%E -2.26%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.99%E -3.07%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 17:04 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.19%E -2.26%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.99%E -3.07%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 20:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.19%E -2.26%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.99%E -3.07%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 20:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.19%E -2.26%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.99%E -3.07%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 17:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.19%E -2.26%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.99%E -3.07%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 17:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.99%E -3.07%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 11:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.99%E -3.07%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 17:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.22%E -2.85%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.99%E -3.07%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 14:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -5.74%E -3.15%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -5.99%E -3.07%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-15 21:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.78%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.99%E -3.07%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-15 17:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.78%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.99%E -3.07%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-15 21:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.78%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.99%E -3.07%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-15 15:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.14%EV -7.29%E -4.08%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.86%EV -5.99%E -3.07%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-15 18:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -8.33%E -4.71%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%EV -5.99%E -3.07%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 21:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.60%EV -5.74%E -3.15%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.40%EV -6.47%E -3.34%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-15 11:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.60%EV -5.74%E -3.15%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.40%EV -6.47%E -3.34%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-15 11:53 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%EV -6.78%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -6.96%E -3.60%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 14:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.26%EV -1.60%E -0.841%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.74%EV -7.44%E -3.87%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 21:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.78%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.92%E -4.15%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-15 17:22 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.78%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.92%E -4.15%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-15 11:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.78%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.92%E -4.15%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-15 11:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.78%E -3.76%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.92%E -4.15%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-15 20:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -3.15%E -1.69%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -9.85%E -5.27%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-15 18:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87% | 0.4% | 2026-08-15 21:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.0% | 2026-08-15 21:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.0% | 2026-08-15 21:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.0% | 2026-08-15 21:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.41% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 47.59% | 1.5% | 2026-08-15 21:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.78% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.22% | 1.7% | 2026-08-15 21:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09% | 1.9% | 2026-08-15 21:15 |