Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Tommy Paul v Hubert Hurkacz

2026-08-15 17:20 UTC — ATP Cincinnati Open

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Tommy Paul (Local)

Predicción 55.53%1.80momio equitativo
EV -1.71%
Ventaja -0.968%
Kelly -2.22%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.77

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.38%55.75%55.61%59.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.601.701.711.7762.50%58.67%58.48%56.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Hubert Hurkacz (Visitante)

Predicción 44.47%2.25momio equitativo
EV +4.06%
Ventaja +1.74%
Kelly +3.03%
Crecimiento +0.123%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.34

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.61%44.25%44.39%45.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.122.122.3450.00%47.09%47.17%42.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Tommy Paul (Local): 55.53%; Hubert Hurkacz (Visitante): 44.47%. Para Hubert Hurkacz (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.25. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.34, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +4.06%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -11.15%E -6.97%K -18.59%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV +4.06%E +1.74%K +3.03%G +0.123%5.2%2026-08-15 07:25
GTbets🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -7.27%E -4.35%K -10.84%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -0.831%E -0.373%K -0.676%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 08:29
BetAnything🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -5.04%E -2.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.17%E -0.984%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-15 08:34
1xBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.44%EV -2.27%E -1.29%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.56%EV -2.61%E -1.19%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-15 08:34
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -5.60%E -3.29%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -3.50%E -1.61%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-15 08:29
Coolbet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%EV -1.71%E -0.968%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.15%EV -4.39%E -2.04%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-15 08:34
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.93%E -2.27%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.39%E -2.04%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-15 08:29
Bovada🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.04%E -2.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.39%E -2.04%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 08:32
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.04%E -2.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.39%E -2.04%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 08:34
NordicBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.04%E -2.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.39%E -2.04%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 08:34
Betsson🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.04%E -2.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.39%E -2.04%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 08:34
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.04%E -2.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.39%E -2.04%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 08:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.60%E -3.29%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.39%E -2.04%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 08:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.60%E -3.29%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.39%E -2.04%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 08:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -6.15%E -3.64%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.39%E -2.04%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 08:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -6.15%E -3.64%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.39%E -2.04%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 08:29
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.27%E -4.35%K -10.84%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.39%E -2.04%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 08:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -10.04%E -6.20%K -16.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -4.39%E -2.04%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 08:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.47%EV -5.04%E -2.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.53%EV -5.28%E -2.48%K -4.67%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 08:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.61%EV -5.60%E -3.29%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.39%EV -5.28%E -2.48%K -4.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 08:33
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -5.04%E -2.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -5.72%E -2.70%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 08:29
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -5.04%E -2.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -5.72%E -2.70%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 08:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -5.04%E -2.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -5.72%E -2.70%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 08:29
Casumo🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -5.04%E -2.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -5.72%E -2.70%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 08:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -5.04%E -2.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -5.72%E -2.70%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 08:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -5.04%E -2.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -5.72%E -2.70%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 08:30
TABtouch🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -5.04%E -2.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -5.72%E -2.70%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 08:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -5.04%E -2.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -5.72%E -2.70%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 08:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -5.04%E -2.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -5.72%E -2.70%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 08:30
Grosvenor🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -5.04%E -2.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -5.72%E -2.70%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 08:29
betPARX🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -5.04%E -2.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -5.72%E -2.70%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 08:29
Bally Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -5.04%E -2.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -5.72%E -2.70%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 08:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -5.04%E -2.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -5.72%E -2.70%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 08:29
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.93%E -2.27%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.61%E -3.15%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 08:25
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.93%E -2.27%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.61%E -3.15%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 08:24
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.93%E -2.27%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.61%E -3.15%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 08:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.93%E -2.27%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.61%E -3.15%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 08:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.93%E -2.27%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.61%E -3.15%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 08:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.93%E -2.27%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.61%E -3.15%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 08:24
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.49%E -2.61%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.61%E -3.15%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 08:34
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.04%E -2.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.61%E -3.15%K -6.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 08:24
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.04%E -2.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.61%E -3.15%K -6.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 08:34
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.60%E -3.29%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.61%E -3.15%K -6.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 08:30
Fliff🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.15%E -3.64%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -6.61%E -3.15%K -6.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 08:30
ReBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.15%E -3.64%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -6.61%E -3.15%K -6.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 08:34
betano_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.27%E -4.35%K -10.84%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.61%E -3.15%K -6.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-15 08:30
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.27%E -4.35%K -10.84%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.61%E -3.15%K -6.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-15 08:28
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.32%EV -6.71%E -3.99%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.68%EV -7.50%E -3.61%K -6.95%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 08:34
Neds🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -4.49%E -2.61%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -8.84%E -4.31%K -8.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 08:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -4.49%E -2.61%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -8.84%E -4.31%K -8.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 08:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.60%E -3.29%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.84%E -4.31%K -8.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 08:25
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.60%E -3.29%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.84%E -4.31%K -8.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 08:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.95%EV -8.93%E -5.45%K -13.96%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.05%EV -11.06%E -5.53%K -11.06%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-15 08:34
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
ProphetX1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18%2.5%2026-08-15 08:29
Novig1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%2.5%2026-08-15 08:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.77I 56.50%NM 54.50%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.50%3.7%2026-08-15 08:29
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 54.50%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.50%3.7%2026-08-15 08:30
Matchbook1.77I 56.50%NM 54.50%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.50%3.7%2026-08-15 08:29
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.77I 56.50%NM 54.50%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.50%3.7%2026-08-15 08:34
Arbitraje (2 combinaciones) +0.77%Coolbet 1.77 (56.9%) / Unibet (UK) 2.34 (43.1%)Ver las 2 combinaciones
Tommy Paul (Local)Hubert Hurkacz (Visitante)Margen
Coolbet🎯 1.77 (56.9%)Unibet (UK)🎯 2.34 (43.1%)+0.774%
1xBet🎯 1.76 (57.1%)Unibet (UK)🎯 2.34 (42.9%)+0.449%

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