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Lorenzo Sonego v Frances Tiafoe

2026-08-16 15:00 UTC — ATP Cincinnati Open

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lorenzo Sonego (Local)

Prediction 36.93%2.71fair odd
EV +1.55%
Edge +0.564%
Kelly +0.886%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.52%36.94%36.76%38.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.562.552.7541.67%39.13%39.22%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Frances Tiafoe (Visit)

Prediction 63.07%1.59fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -2.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.07%63.06%63.24%65.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.501.501.5668.97%66.80%66.67%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Lorenzo Sonego (Local): 36.93%; Frances Tiafoe (Visit): 63.07%. For Lorenzo Sonego (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.71. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.75, producing a positive expected value of +1.55%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +1.55%E +0.564%K +0.886%G +0.014%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -8.55%E -5.89%K -18.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:14
LowVig.ag🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 35.78%EV +0.074%E +0.027%K +0.043%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 64.22%EV -4.76%E -3.15%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-15 11:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 35.78%EV +0.074%E +0.027%K +0.043%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 64.22%EV -4.76%E -3.15%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-15 11:20
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -0.295%E -0.109%K -0.174%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -8.55%E -5.89%K -18.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 12:44
1xBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.75%EV -2.14%E -0.808%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.25%EV -2.87%E -1.86%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-15 10:24
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -2.14%E -0.808%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -3.50%E -2.29%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-15 10:19
Pinnacle🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.45%EV -2.14%E -0.808%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.55%EV -4.13%E -2.72%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-15 11:00
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -3.25%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-15 10:24
BetAnything🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.99%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.50%E -2.29%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 11:24
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -3.99%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.76%E -3.15%K -9.34%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 10:22
888sport🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.99%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 10:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.99%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 10:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.99%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 10:49
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.99%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.65%E -4.50%K -13.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 10:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.99%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.65%E -4.50%K -13.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 10:15
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.99%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.65%E -4.50%K -13.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 10:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.76%EV -4.73%E -1.83%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.24%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 10:24
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -1.61%E -1.03%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-15 13:28
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:04
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:05
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:05
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:05
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:04
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:04
Bally Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -6.02%E -4.04%K -12.29%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 12:18
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -8.55%E -5.89%K -18.99%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 10:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.68%EV -6.94%E -2.75%K -4.57%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 63.32%EV -7.91%E -5.42%K -17.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 10:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -2.87%E -1.86%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-15 13:24
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 10:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 10:09
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 10:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 10:15
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 10:14
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.65%E -4.50%K -13.86%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 11:44
PMU (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.65%E -4.50%K -13.86%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 10:04
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.65%E -4.50%K -13.86%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 10:09
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 63.13%EV -7.91%E -5.42%K -17.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 12:29
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -8.55%E -5.89%K -18.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 12:08
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -8.55%E -5.89%K -18.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 12:10
DraftKings🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%EV -8.05%E -3.23%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%EV -2.87%E -1.86%K -5.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 09:55
GTbets🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%EV -8.79%E -3.56%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -2.24%E -1.44%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 10:04
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -9.53%E -3.89%K -6.57%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -7.28%E -4.95%K -15.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-15 11:45
Caesars🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -11.37%E -4.74%K -8.12%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -3.50%E -2.29%K -6.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 10:26
ReBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -11.37%E -4.74%K -8.12%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 62.18%EV -7.91%E -5.42%K -17.21%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 10:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59%0.5%2026-08-15 11:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%0.6%2026-08-15 10:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%0.6%2026-08-15 11:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%0.6%2026-08-15 11:00
Novig◎2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%3.4%2026-08-15 12:25
Matchbook◎2.42I 41.32%NM 37.47%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.53%10.3%2026-08-15 11:20

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