Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Lorenzo Sonego v Frances Tiafoe

2026-08-16 15:00 UTC — ATP Cincinnati Open

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Lorenzo Sonego (Local)

Predicción 36.96%2.71momio equitativo
EV +1.65%
Ventaja +0.600%
Kelly +0.943%
Crecimiento +0.016%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.52%36.91%36.76%38.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.402.552.552.7541.67%39.25%39.22%36.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Frances Tiafoe (Visitante)

Predicción 63.04%1.59momio equitativo
EV -1.66%
Ventaja -1.07%
Kelly -2.97%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.56

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
61.44%63.09%63.24%65.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.451.501.501.5668.97%66.67%66.67%64.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Lorenzo Sonego (Local): 36.96%; Frances Tiafoe (Visitante): 63.04%. Para Lorenzo Sonego (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.71. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.75, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.65%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +1.65%E +0.600%K +0.943%G +0.016%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -8.60%E -5.93%K -19.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:14
1xBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.75%EV -2.05%E -0.772%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.25%EV -2.92%E -1.90%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-15 10:24
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -2.05%E -0.772%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-15 10:19
LowVig.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -2.05%E -0.772%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-15 13:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -2.05%E -0.772%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-15 13:55
Pinnacle🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.69%EV -2.42%E -0.915%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.31%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-15 14:35
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -3.16%E -1.20%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-15 10:24
BetAnything🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.89%E -1.50%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 11:24
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -3.89%E -1.50%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.81%E -3.19%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 10:22
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -3.89%E -1.50%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.81%E -3.19%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 13:59
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.89%E -1.50%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.71%E -4.53%K -13.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 10:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.89%E -1.50%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.71%E -4.53%K -13.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 10:15
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.89%E -1.50%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.71%E -4.53%K -13.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 10:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.76%EV -4.63%E -1.80%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.24%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 10:24
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -5.74%E -2.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -1.66%E -1.07%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-15 13:28
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.74%E -2.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.74%E -2.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:04
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.74%E -2.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.74%E -2.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:05
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.74%E -2.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.74%E -2.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.74%E -2.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.74%E -2.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:05
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.74%E -2.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:05
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.74%E -2.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:04
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.74%E -2.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 14:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.74%E -2.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:04
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.74%E -2.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.74%E -2.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:04
Bally Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.74%E -2.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.74%E -2.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -5.74%E -2.25%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -8.60%E -5.93%K -19.10%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 10:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.68%EV -6.85%E -2.72%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 63.32%EV -7.97%E -5.46%K -17.32%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 10:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -2.92%E -1.90%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-15 13:24
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 14:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 14:09
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.55%E -2.32%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 14:10
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.18%E -2.75%K -8.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 14:34
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 10:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 10:09
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 10:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 10:15
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 10:14
Caesars🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 13:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.71%E -4.53%K -13.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 11:44
PMU (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.71%E -4.53%K -13.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 10:04
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.71%E -4.53%K -13.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 10:09
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 63.13%EV -7.97%E -5.46%K -17.32%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 12:29
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -8.60%E -5.93%K -19.10%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 12:08
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -8.60%E -5.93%K -19.10%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 12:10
GTbets🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%EV -8.70%E -3.52%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -2.29%E -1.48%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 10:04
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -9.44%E -3.85%K -6.51%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -7.34%E -4.99%K -15.61%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-15 14:29
ReBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -11.29%E -4.70%K -8.06%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 62.18%EV -7.97%E -5.46%K -17.32%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 10:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%0.6%2026-08-15 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.94%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.06%1.0%2026-08-15 14:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.94%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.06%1.0%2026-08-15 14:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.94%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.06%1.0%2026-08-15 14:20
ProphetX2.66I 37.59%NM 36.97%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.03%1.7%2026-08-15 14:30
Novig2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%3.8%2026-08-15 14:35

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