Language:English
Jaime Faria v Lorenzo Musetti
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jaime Faria (Local)
Prediction 27.73%3.61fair odd
EV +4.00%
Edge +1.07%
Kelly +1.45%
Growth +0.058%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.60%27.82%27.59%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.353.403.7533.33%29.83%29.41%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lorenzo Musetti (Visit)
Prediction 72.27%1.38fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -4.77%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.81%72.18%72.41%74.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.321.321.3679.37%75.89%75.76%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jaime Faria (Local): 27.73%; Lorenzo Musetti (Visit): 72.27%. For Jaime Faria (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.61. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.00%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +4.00%E +1.07%K +1.45%G +0.058% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -6.77%E -5.25%K -23.36%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-19 20:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -0.163%E -0.045%K -0.063%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -4.61%E -3.49%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-20 01:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -0.163%E -0.045%K -0.063%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.33%E -4.07%K -17.19%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-20 01:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.56I 28.09%NM 27.35%EV -1.27%E -0.358%K -0.497%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.65%EV -3.16%E -2.36%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-20 01:06 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV -1.55%E -0.437%K -0.608%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -5.33%E -4.07%K -17.19%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-20 01:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.53I 28.33%NM 27.07%EV -2.10%E -0.596%K -0.832%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.93%EV -5.33%E -4.07%K -17.19%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-20 01:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV -2.94%E -0.839%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.31%EV -3.16%E -2.36%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-20 01:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -2.94%E -0.839%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.61%E -3.49%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-19 22:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -2.94%E -0.839%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.05%E -4.66%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-20 01:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.59%EV -3.21%E -0.921%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.41%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-20 01:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.59%EV -3.21%E -0.921%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.41%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-20 01:11 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.46%EV -4.05%E -1.17%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.54%EV -5.33%E -4.07%K -17.19%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-20 01:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -4.32%E -1.25%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.05%E -4.66%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-20 01:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -4.32%E -1.25%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.05%E -4.66%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-20 01:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -4.32%E -1.25%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.05%E -4.66%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-20 01:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -4.32%E -1.25%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.05%E -4.66%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-20 01:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-20 01:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-19 21:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.61%E -3.49%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-19 22:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.61%E -3.49%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-19 22:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.61%E -3.49%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-19 22:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.61%E -3.49%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-19 22:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.61%E -3.49%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-19 22:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.61%E -3.49%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-19 22:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.61%E -3.49%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-19 22:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.61%E -3.49%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-19 22:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.61%E -3.49%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-19 22:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.61%E -3.49%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-19 22:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.61%E -3.49%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-19 22:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.61%E -3.49%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-19 22:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.61%E -3.49%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-19 22:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.61%E -3.49%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-19 22:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.33%E -4.07%K -17.19%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-19 22:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -8.22%E -6.47%K -30.44%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-19 10:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -5.71%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.96%EV -8.94%E -7.10%K -34.40%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-20 01:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.21%EV -6.82%E -2.03%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.79%EV -4.61%E -3.49%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-20 00:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.14%EV -7.93%E -2.39%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.86%EV -6.05%E -4.66%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-19 22:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.48%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-20 01:06 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -8.48%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -5.33%E -4.07%K -17.19%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-19 20:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -8.48%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -5.33%E -4.07%K -17.19%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-19 17:33 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.48%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -6.05%E -4.66%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 22:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.87%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-19 23:56 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.87%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-20 01:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.87%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-20 01:09 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.87%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-19 21:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.87%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.87%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-20 01:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.87%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-20 01:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.87%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-19 21:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.26%EV -9.87%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.74%EV -7.50%E -5.86%K -26.78%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-20 01:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -11.26%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -3.16%E -2.36%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-19 22:06 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -11.26%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -4.61%E -3.49%K -14.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-20 01:06 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -11.26%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.05%E -4.66%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-20 01:06 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -11.26%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.05%E -4.66%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-19 21:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -11.26%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.05%E -4.66%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-19 21:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -14.03%E -4.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-20 00:44 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -14.03%E -4.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-20 00:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -14.03%E -4.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-19 22:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -14.03%E -4.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-19 22:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -16.80%E -5.60%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -1.72%E -1.26%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-19 22:06 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -16.80%E -5.60%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -1.72%E -1.26%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-19 22:06 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-08-20 01:11 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-08-20 01:11 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-08-20 01:06 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-08-20 01:11 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.85% | 0.9% | 2026-08-20 01:11 |
| Novig◎ | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.93% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.07% | 2.0% | 2026-08-20 01:11 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.04% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.96% | 2.4% | 2026-08-20 00:35 |