Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arthur Fils v Frances Tiafoe

2026-08-23 20:30 UTC — ATP Cincinnati Open

Head to Head

62 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arthur Fils (Local)

Prediction 65.06%1.54fair odd
EV -1.76%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -3.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.50%64.97%65.06%66.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.461.471.5171.43%68.27%68.03%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Frances Tiafoe (Visit)

Prediction 34.94%2.86fair odd
EV +0.270%
Edge +0.094%
Kelly +0.144%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.26%35.03%34.94%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.692.652.8740.00%37.20%37.74%34.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Arthur Fils (Local): 65.06%; Frances Tiafoe (Visit): 34.94%. For Frances Tiafoe (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.86. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.87, producing a positive expected value of +0.270%.

Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.74%EV -6.96%E -4.87%K -16.19%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.26%EV +0.270%E +0.094%K +0.144%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-23 06:54
1xBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.74%EV -3.71%E -2.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.26%EV -0.778%E -0.274%K -0.423%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-23 06:55
Coolbet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.27%EV -3.06%E -2.05%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%EV -2.18%E -0.777%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-23 06:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -4.36%E -2.96%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -2.18%E -0.777%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-23 06:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -4.36%E -2.96%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -2.18%E -0.777%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-23 06:50
Bovada🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.66%E -3.90%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -2.18%E -0.777%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-23 06:56
BetAnything🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.66%E -3.90%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -2.18%E -0.777%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-23 06:55
FanDuel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.66%E -3.90%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -2.18%E -0.777%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-23 06:50
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.11%EV -3.06%E -2.05%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.89%EV -2.87%E -1.03%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-23 07:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.72%EV -5.66%E -3.90%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.28%EV -2.87%E -1.03%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-23 06:55
GTbets🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 64.72%EV -1.76%E -1.16%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 35.28%EV -3.22%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-23 06:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.71%E -2.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.92%E -1.43%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-23 06:50
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.71%E -2.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.92%E -1.43%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-23 06:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.36%E -2.96%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -3.92%E -1.43%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-23 06:49
Fanatics🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.66%E -3.90%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.92%E -1.43%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 06:49
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.66%E -3.90%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.92%E -1.43%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 05:19
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.31%E -4.38%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.92%E -1.43%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-23 06:55
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.31%E -4.38%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.92%E -1.43%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-23 07:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.31%E -4.38%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.92%E -1.43%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-23 06:50
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.91%E -6.37%K -22.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -3.92%E -1.43%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-23 06:50
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.91%E -6.37%K -22.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -3.92%E -1.43%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-23 06:50
SportsBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.78%EV -7.61%E -5.36%K -18.12%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.22%EV -4.62%E -1.69%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 06:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -3.06%E -2.05%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV -4.97%E -1.83%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-23 05:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -3.06%E -2.05%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV -4.97%E -1.83%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-23 05:04
BetUS🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.06%E -2.05%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -5.67%E -2.10%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-23 05:09
Betsson🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.36%E -2.96%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -5.67%E -2.10%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-23 06:50
NordicBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.36%E -2.96%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -5.67%E -2.10%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-23 06:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.66%E -3.90%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -5.67%E -2.10%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-23 06:40
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.66%E -3.90%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -5.67%E -2.10%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-23 06:55
Fliff🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.96%E -4.87%K -16.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -5.67%E -2.10%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-23 07:00
BetRivers🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.71%E -2.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.42%E -2.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 06:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.71%E -2.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.42%E -2.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 06:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.71%E -2.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.42%E -2.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 06:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.71%E -2.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.42%E -2.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 06:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.71%E -2.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.42%E -2.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 06:55
Grosvenor🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.71%E -2.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.42%E -2.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 06:55
Casumo🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.71%E -2.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.42%E -2.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 06:55
Unibet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.71%E -2.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.42%E -2.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 06:55
TABtouch🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.71%E -2.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.42%E -2.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 06:55
betPARX🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.71%E -2.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.42%E -2.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 07:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.71%E -2.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.42%E -2.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 07:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.71%E -2.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.42%E -2.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 07:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.71%E -2.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.42%E -2.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 07:00
Bally Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.71%E -2.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.42%E -2.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 07:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -5.01%E -3.43%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -7.42%E -2.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 06:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -5.66%E -3.90%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -7.42%E -2.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-23 06:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -6.31%E -4.38%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -7.42%E -2.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 06:50
theScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -6.96%E -4.87%K -16.19%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -7.42%E -2.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-23 06:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.31%E -4.38%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -8.46%E -3.23%K -5.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 06:45
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.31%E -4.38%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -8.46%E -3.23%K -5.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 06:45
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.41%E -1.60%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -9.16%E -3.52%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-23 03:05
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.41%E -1.60%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -9.16%E -3.52%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-23 03:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.41%E -1.60%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -9.16%E -3.52%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-23 05:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.41%E -1.60%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -9.16%E -3.52%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-23 05:09
TAB🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -5.01%E -3.43%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -9.16%E -3.52%K -5.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-23 05:20
LeoVegas🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.31%E -4.38%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -9.16%E -3.52%K -5.73%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 06:50
betano_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.31%E -4.38%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -9.16%E -3.52%K -5.73%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 06:59
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.31%E -4.38%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -9.16%E -3.52%K -5.73%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 06:50
ReBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.31%E -4.38%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -9.16%E -3.52%K -5.73%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 06:50
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -3.71%E -2.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -10.91%E -4.28%K -7.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 06:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -3.71%E -2.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -10.91%E -4.28%K -7.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 06:45
Caesars🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -2.41%E -1.60%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -12.66%E -5.06%K -8.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-23 04:17
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01%0.6%2026-08-23 06:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01%0.6%2026-08-23 07:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01%0.6%2026-08-23 07:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01%0.6%2026-08-23 07:00
ProphetX1.53I 65.36%NM 64.83%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.17%0.8%2026-08-23 07:00
Novig1.52I 65.79%NM 64.98%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.02%1.3%2026-08-23 06:45
Smarkets1.50I 66.67%NM 65.12%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.88%2.4%2026-08-23 07:00

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