Language:English
Arthur Fils v Frances Tiafoe
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Arthur Fils (Local)
Prediction 64.76%1.54fair odd
EV -0.264%
Edge -0.171%
Kelly -0.489%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.36%64.61%64.75%65.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.481.481.5469.93%67.44%67.57%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Frances Tiafoe (Visit)
Prediction 35.24%2.84fair odd
EV -0.281%
Edge -0.099%
Kelly -0.154%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.83
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.12%35.39%35.25%38.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.432.622.622.8341.15%38.12%38.17%35.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arthur Fils (Local): 64.76%; Frances Tiafoe (Visit): 35.24%. For Arthur Fils (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.544. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.540, with an expected value of -0.264%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -0.264%E -0.171%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -11.91%E -4.76%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-23 20:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -0.264%E -0.171%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -11.91%E -4.76%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -0.264%E -0.171%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -11.91%E -4.76%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -0.264%E -0.171%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -11.91%E -4.76%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -0.264%E -0.171%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -12.61%E -5.09%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -0.264%E -0.171%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -12.61%E -5.09%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -0.264%E -0.171%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -12.61%E -5.09%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -0.264%E -0.171%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -12.61%E -5.09%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -0.264%E -0.171%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -12.61%E -5.09%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -0.264%E -0.171%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -12.61%E -5.09%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -0.264%E -0.171%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -12.61%E -5.09%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 20:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -0.912%E -0.596%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -11.91%E -4.76%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-23 20:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -0.912%E -0.596%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -14.38%E -5.92%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -1.56%E -1.03%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -8.39%E -3.23%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-23 20:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.52%EV -1.56%E -1.03%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.48%EV -14.38%E -5.92%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.52%EV -1.56%E -1.03%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.48%EV -14.38%E -5.92%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.72%EV -2.21%E -1.46%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 35.28%EV -2.40%E -0.865%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-08-23 06:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.12%EV -2.85%E -1.90%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.88%EV -1.34%E -0.478%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-08-23 20:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.85%E -1.90%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-23 20:24 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -2.85%E -1.90%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -11.91%E -4.76%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-23 20:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -2.85%E -1.90%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -11.91%E -4.76%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-23 20:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.51%EV -3.50%E -2.35%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 34.49%EV -0.281%E -0.099%K -0.154%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-08-23 20:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.27%EV -3.50%E -2.35%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%EV -1.34%E -0.478%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-23 20:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -3.50%E -2.35%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV -2.40%E -0.865%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-23 19:14 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -3.50%E -2.35%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV -2.40%E -0.865%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-23 19:13 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -3.50%E -2.35%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -3.10%E -1.13%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-23 20:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.50%EV -4.15%E -2.80%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 2.81I 35.59%NM 34.50%EV -0.986%E -0.351%K -0.545%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-23 20:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.15%E -2.80%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.10%E -1.13%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.15%E -2.80%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.86%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-23 20:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.15%E -2.80%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.86%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-23 19:14 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -4.15%E -2.80%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -4.15%E -2.80%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.09%EV -4.15%E -2.80%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 36.91%EV -10.85%E -4.29%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-23 20:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -1.34%E -0.478%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.86%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.62%E -2.50%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.62%E -2.50%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.62%E -2.50%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -5.45%E -3.73%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -1.34%E -0.478%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-23 14:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.34%E -0.478%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.34%E -0.478%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-23 20:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.34%E -0.478%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-23 20:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.10%E -1.13%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 20:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.86%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-23 06:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.86%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -6.62%E -2.50%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-23 08:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.39%E -3.23%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 20:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.39%E -3.23%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.10%E -1.13%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-23 20:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -6.62%E -2.50%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-23 06:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.68%E -2.93%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.68%E -2.93%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-23 20:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.68%E -2.93%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.68%E -2.93%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-23 20:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.68%E -2.93%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-23 20:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.68%E -2.93%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.68%E -2.93%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -8.39%E -3.23%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-23 07:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -8.39%E -3.23%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-23 08:12 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -11.91%E -4.76%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-23 20:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.07%EV -7.39%E -5.17%K -17.18%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-23 20:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48% | 0.2% | 2026-08-23 20:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 65.15% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85% | 0.3% | 2026-08-23 20:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 65.15% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85% | 0.3% | 2026-08-23 20:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63% | 0.5% | 2026-08-23 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63% | 0.5% | 2026-08-23 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78% | 0.7% | 2026-08-23 20:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.51% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.49% | 2.3% | 2026-08-23 20:15 |