Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Arthur Fils v Frances Tiafoe

2026-08-23 20:30 UTC — ATP Cincinnati Open

Resultado del partido

62 corredores (21 en el análisis )

65%

35%

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Arthur Fils (Local)

Predicción 65.02%1.54momio equitativo

EV -1.83%

Ventaja -1.21%

Kelly -3.58%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.51

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

62.50%64.91%65.06%66.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

1.401.471.481.5171.43%68.02%67.57%66.23%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Frances Tiafoe (Visitante)

Predicción 34.98%2.86momio equitativo

EV +0.754%

Ventaja +0.262%

Kelly +0.401%

Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.88

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

33.26%35.09%34.94%37.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

2.502.682.652.8840.00%37.26%37.74%34.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Arthur Fils (Local): 65.02%; Frances Tiafoe (Visitante): 34.98%. Para Frances Tiafoe (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.86. 2 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.88, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.754%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (62 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

Corredor	Local	Visitante ▼	Margen	Actualizado
1xBet🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 66.06%EV -3.78%E -2.55%K -7.87%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 33.94%EV +0.754%E +0.262%K +0.401%G +0.003%	2.3%	2026-08-23 07:50
DraftKings🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.74%EV -7.03%E -4.91%K -16.34%G +0.000%	2.87I 34.84%NM 33.26%EV +0.405%E +0.141%K +0.216%G +0.001%	4.8%	2026-08-23 06:54
FanDuel🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.49%G +0.000%	2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -0.645%E -0.227%K -0.351%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-23 07:50
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -4.43%E -3.01%K -9.42%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -2.04%E -0.730%K -1.14%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-08-23 07:45
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -4.43%E -3.01%K -9.42%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -2.04%E -0.730%K -1.14%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-08-23 06:55
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -4.43%E -3.01%K -9.42%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -2.04%E -0.730%K -1.14%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-08-23 07:49
Bovada🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.73%E -3.95%K -12.73%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -2.04%E -0.730%K -1.14%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-23 06:56
BetAnything🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.73%E -3.95%K -12.73%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -2.04%E -0.730%K -1.14%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-23 06:55
Pinnacle🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 65.11%EV -3.13%E -2.10%K -6.38%G +0.000%	2.78I 35.97%NM 34.89%EV -2.74%E -0.987%K -1.54%G +0.000%	3.1%	2026-08-23 07:00
GTbets🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 64.72%EV -1.83%E -1.21%K -3.58%G +0.000%	2.77I 36.10%NM 35.28%EV -3.09%E -1.12%K -1.75%G +0.000%	2.3%	2026-08-23 06:55
SportsBet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 66.27%EV -8.33%E -5.91%K -20.31%G +0.000%	2.77I 36.10%NM 33.73%EV -3.09%E -1.12%K -1.75%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-08-23 07:45
Coolbet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -3.79%E -1.38%K -2.17%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-08-23 07:55
BetMGM🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.78%E -2.55%K -7.87%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.79%E -1.38%K -2.17%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-08-23 06:45
Betsson🎯	1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -5.08%E -3.48%K -11.04%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -3.79%E -1.38%K -2.17%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-08-23 07:45
NordicBet🎯	1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -5.08%E -3.48%K -11.04%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -3.79%E -1.38%K -2.17%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-08-23 07:45
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -5.08%E -3.48%K -11.04%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -3.79%E -1.38%K -2.17%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-08-23 07:45
Fanatics🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.73%E -3.95%K -12.73%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.79%E -1.38%K -2.17%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-23 06:49
Betway🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.73%E -3.95%K -12.73%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.79%E -1.38%K -2.17%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-23 05:19
betfred_uk🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.49%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.79%E -1.38%K -2.17%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-23 06:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.49%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.79%E -1.38%K -2.17%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-23 06:50
Sky Bet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.98%E -6.41%K -22.44%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -3.79%E -1.38%K -2.17%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-08-23 06:50
Paddy Power🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.98%E -6.41%K -22.44%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -3.79%E -1.38%K -2.17%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-08-23 06:50
Marathon Bet🎯	1.46I 68.49%NM 65.24%EV -5.08%E -3.48%K -11.04%G +0.000%	2.74I 36.50%NM 34.76%EV -4.14%E -1.51%K -2.38%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-23 07:55
LowVig.ag🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -3.13%E -2.10%K -6.38%G +0.000%	2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV -4.84%E -1.78%K -2.82%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-08-23 05:05
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -3.13%E -2.10%K -6.38%G +0.000%	2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV -4.84%E -1.78%K -2.82%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-08-23 05:04
BoyleSports🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -5.54%E -2.05%K -3.26%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-08-23 07:55
BetUS🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.13%E -2.10%K -6.38%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -5.54%E -2.05%K -3.26%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-08-23 05:09
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.73%E -3.95%K -12.73%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -5.54%E -2.05%K -3.26%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-08-23 06:40
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.73%E -3.95%K -12.73%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -5.54%E -2.05%K -3.26%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-08-23 07:45
Fliff🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -7.03%E -4.91%K -16.34%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -5.54%E -2.05%K -3.26%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-08-23 07:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -7.29%E -2.75%K -4.42%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-08-23 07:55
Betr (AU)🎯	1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -5.08%E -3.48%K -11.04%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -7.29%E -2.75%K -4.42%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-23 06:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.49%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -7.29%E -2.75%K -4.42%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-08-23 06:50
theScore Bet🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -7.03%E -4.91%K -16.34%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -7.29%E -2.75%K -4.42%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-08-23 06:50
LeoVegas🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -7.68%E -5.41%K -18.28%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -7.29%E -2.75%K -4.42%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-08-23 07:45
ReBet🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 64.86%EV -7.03%E -4.91%K -16.34%G +0.000%	2.64I 37.88%NM 35.14%EV -7.64%E -2.89%K -4.66%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-08-23 07:45
BetRivers🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -7.99%E -3.04%K -4.90%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-23 07:55
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -7.99%E -3.04%K -4.90%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-23 07:54
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -7.99%E -3.04%K -4.90%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-23 07:55
Grosvenor🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -7.99%E -3.04%K -4.90%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-23 07:55
Casumo🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -7.99%E -3.04%K -4.90%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-23 07:55
Unibet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -7.99%E -3.04%K -4.90%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-23 07:55
TABtouch🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -7.99%E -3.04%K -4.90%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-23 07:55
betPARX🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -7.99%E -3.04%K -4.90%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-23 07:55
Svenska Spel🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -7.99%E -3.04%K -4.90%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-23 07:55
ATG (SE)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -7.99%E -3.04%K -4.90%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-23 07:54
Bally Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -7.99%E -3.04%K -4.90%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-23 07:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.49%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -8.34%E -3.18%K -5.15%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-08-23 06:45
Coral🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.49%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -8.34%E -3.18%K -5.15%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-08-23 06:45
888sport🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -9.04%E -3.48%K -5.65%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-23 03:05
William Hill🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -9.04%E -3.48%K -5.65%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-23 03:04
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -9.04%E -3.48%K -5.65%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-23 07:55
Virgin Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -9.04%E -3.48%K -5.65%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-23 07:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -9.04%E -3.48%K -5.65%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-23 05:05
888sport (SE)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -9.04%E -3.48%K -5.65%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-23 05:09
PlayUp🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -3.78%E -2.55%K -7.87%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -9.04%E -3.48%K -5.65%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-08-23 07:55
betano_uk🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.49%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -9.04%E -3.48%K -5.65%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-08-23 07:54
Bet Victor🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.38%E -4.43%K -14.49%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -9.04%E -3.48%K -5.65%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-08-23 07:55
Neds🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -3.78%E -2.55%K -7.87%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -10.79%E -4.23%K -6.96%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-08-23 06:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -3.78%E -2.55%K -7.87%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -10.79%E -4.23%K -6.96%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-08-23 06:45
TAB🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -12.54%E -5.02%K -8.36%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-08-23 07:30
Caesars🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -12.54%E -5.02%K -8.36%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-08-23 04:17

Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

Corredor	Local	Visitante	Margen ▲	Actualizado
Matchbook◎	1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99%	2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01%	0.6%	2026-08-23 07:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99%	2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01%	0.6%	2026-08-23 07:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99%	2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01%	0.6%	2026-08-23 07:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99%	2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01%	0.6%	2026-08-23 07:30
ProphetX◎	1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99%	2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01%	0.6%	2026-08-23 07:40
Novig◎	1.52I 65.79%NM 64.98%	2.82I 35.46%NM 35.02%	1.3%	2026-08-23 06:45
Smarkets◎	1.50I 66.67%NM 65.12%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.88%	2.4%	2026-08-23 07:35

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