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Arthur Fils v Frances Tiafoe

Inicio: 2026-08-23 20:41 UTC

Final: Arthur Fils 2–1 Frances Tiafoe

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

61 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Arthur Fils (Local)

Predicción 64.76%1.54momio equitativo
EV -0.264%
Ventaja -0.171%
Kelly -0.489%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.54

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
61.36%64.61%64.75%65.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.431.481.481.5469.93%67.44%67.57%64.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Frances Tiafoe (Visitante)

Predicción 35.24%2.84momio equitativo
EV -0.281%
Ventaja -0.099%
Kelly -0.154%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.83

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.12%35.39%35.25%38.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.432.622.622.8341.15%38.12%38.17%35.34%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Arthur Fils (Local): 64.76%; Frances Tiafoe (Visitante): 35.24%. Para Arthur Fils (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 1.544. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 1.540, con un valor esperado de -0.264%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (61 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Unibet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -0.264%E -0.171%K -0.489%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -11.91%E -4.76%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-23 20:40
TABtouch🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -0.264%E -0.171%K -0.489%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -11.91%E -4.76%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-23 20:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -0.264%E -0.171%K -0.489%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -11.91%E -4.76%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-23 20:39
Bally Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -0.264%E -0.171%K -0.489%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -11.91%E -4.76%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-23 20:39
BetRivers🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -0.264%E -0.171%K -0.489%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -12.61%E -5.09%K -8.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 20:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -0.264%E -0.171%K -0.489%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -12.61%E -5.09%K -8.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 20:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -0.264%E -0.171%K -0.489%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -12.61%E -5.09%K -8.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 20:39
Casumo🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -0.264%E -0.171%K -0.489%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -12.61%E -5.09%K -8.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 20:39
betPARX🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -0.264%E -0.171%K -0.489%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -12.61%E -5.09%K -8.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 20:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -0.264%E -0.171%K -0.489%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -12.61%E -5.09%K -8.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 20:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -0.264%E -0.171%K -0.489%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -12.61%E -5.09%K -8.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 20:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -0.912%E -0.596%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -11.91%E -4.76%K -7.94%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-23 20:05
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -0.912%E -0.596%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -14.38%E -5.92%K -10.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-23 20:39
FanDuel🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -1.56%E -1.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -8.39%E -3.23%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-23 20:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.52%EV -1.56%E -1.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.48%EV -14.38%E -5.92%K -10.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-23 20:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.52%EV -1.56%E -1.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.48%EV -14.38%E -5.92%K -10.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-23 20:39
GTbets🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 64.72%EV -2.21%E -1.46%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 35.28%EV -2.40%E -0.865%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-23 06:55
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 65.12%EV -2.85%E -1.90%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.88%EV -1.34%E -0.478%K -0.743%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-23 20:20
PlayUp🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.85%E -1.90%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-23 20:24
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -2.85%E -1.90%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -11.91%E -4.76%K -7.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-23 20:05
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -2.85%E -1.90%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -11.91%E -4.76%K -7.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-23 20:04
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.51%EV -3.50%E -2.35%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.49%EV -0.281%E -0.099%K -0.154%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-23 20:29
Coolbet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.27%EV -3.50%E -2.35%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%EV -1.34%E -0.478%K -0.743%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-23 20:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -3.50%E -2.35%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV -2.40%E -0.865%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-23 19:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -3.50%E -2.35%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV -2.40%E -0.865%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-23 19:13
Winamax (DE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -3.50%E -2.35%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -3.10%E -1.13%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-23 20:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.50%EV -4.15%E -2.80%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.50%EV -0.986%E -0.351%K -0.545%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-23 20:25
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.15%E -2.80%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.10%E -1.13%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-23 20:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.15%E -2.80%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.86%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-23 20:40
BetUS🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.15%E -2.80%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.86%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-23 19:14
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -4.15%E -2.80%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 20:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -4.15%E -2.80%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 20:39
SportsBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.09%EV -4.15%E -2.80%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 36.91%EV -10.85%E -4.29%K -7.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 20:05
theScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -1.34%E -0.478%K -0.743%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-23 20:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.86%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-23 20:39
Betsson🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.62%E -2.50%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-23 20:39
NordicBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.62%E -2.50%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-23 20:39
ReBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.62%E -2.50%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-23 20:39
Unibet (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -5.45%E -3.73%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -1.34%E -0.478%K -0.743%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-23 14:05
DraftKings🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.34%E -0.478%K -0.743%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-23 20:39
Bovada🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.34%E -0.478%K -0.743%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-23 20:19
BetAnything🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.34%E -0.478%K -0.743%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-23 20:20
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.10%E -1.13%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 20:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.86%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-23 06:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.86%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-23 20:39
Caesars🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.54%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -6.62%E -2.50%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-23 08:50
Fanatics🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.54%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.39%E -3.23%K -5.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 20:40
LeoVegas🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.54%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.39%E -3.23%K -5.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 20:39
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.10%E -1.13%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-23 20:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -6.62%E -2.50%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 06:50
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.68%E -2.93%K -4.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 20:39
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.68%E -2.93%K -4.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 20:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.68%E -2.93%K -4.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 20:39
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.68%E -2.93%K -4.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 20:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.68%E -2.93%K -4.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 20:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.68%E -2.93%K -4.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 20:39
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.68%E -2.93%K -4.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 20:39
betano_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -8.39%E -3.23%K -5.24%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 07:54
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -8.39%E -3.23%K -5.24%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 08:12
Betclic (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -11.91%E -4.76%K -7.94%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-23 20:40
Fliff🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.07%EV -7.39%E -5.17%K -17.18%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 20:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48%0.2%2026-08-23 20:40
Novig◎1.53I 65.36%NM 65.15%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85%0.3%2026-08-23 20:40
ProphetX◎1.53I 65.36%NM 65.15%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85%0.3%2026-08-23 20:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%0.5%2026-08-23 20:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%0.5%2026-08-23 20:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78%0.7%2026-08-23 20:40
Smarkets◎1.47I 68.03%NM 66.51%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.49%2.3%2026-08-23 20:15