Language:English
Tallon Griekspoor v Daniel Merida Aguilar
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tallon Griekspoor (Local)
Prediction 53.45%1.87fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -3.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.82
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%53.53%53.33%54.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.781.791.8258.14%56.32%55.87%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visit)
Prediction 46.55%2.15fair odd
EV -0.380%
Edge -0.178%
Kelly -0.334%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.17%46.47%46.67%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.032.022.1451.28%49.25%49.50%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tallon Griekspoor (Local): 53.45%; Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visit): 46.55%. For Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.15. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.14, with an expected value of -0.380%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -2.72%E -1.50%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-09 16:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.86%EV -3.26%E -1.80%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.14%EV -5.50%E -2.71%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -2.24%E -1.07%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-09 15:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-09 13:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-09 16:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-09 16:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-08 10:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.00%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.00%EV -5.50%E -2.71%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-09 09:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-08 12:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-08 13:59 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.23%E -4.73%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-09 15:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.45%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.55%EV -0.380%E -0.178%K -0.334%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-08-09 16:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.51%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.49%EV -4.10%E -1.99%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-09 15:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.51%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.49%EV -4.10%E -1.99%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-09 15:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-09 06:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -5.50%E -2.71%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 11:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -5.50%E -2.71%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 11:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -5.50%E -2.71%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 15:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -4.86%E -2.73%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -5.50%E -2.71%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.40%E -3.05%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-09 16:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.40%E -3.05%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.40%E -3.05%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.93%E -3.37%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.24%E -1.07%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-09 16:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.93%E -3.37%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-09 16:20 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -3.17%E -1.53%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-09 15:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-09 15:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-09 15:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV -8.29%E -4.21%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-09 07:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -9.23%E -4.73%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-09 16:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -9.23%E -4.73%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.00%E -4.02%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-08 08:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.00%E -4.02%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.00%E -4.02%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-09 15:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.00%E -4.02%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-09 15:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.53%E -4.35%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.24%E -1.07%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 15:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.53%E -4.35%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.24%E -1.07%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 15:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.53%E -4.35%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.24%E -1.07%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 15:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.53%E -4.35%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.24%E -1.07%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 15:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.53%E -4.35%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-09 15:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.53%E -4.35%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-09 15:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -8.07%E -4.69%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 11:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91% | 0.3% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91% | 0.3% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91% | 0.3% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91% | 0.3% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Novig◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.75% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 46.25% | 0.6% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86% | 1.3% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81% | 2.4% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |