Idioma:Español
Tallon Griekspoor v Daniel Merida Aguilar
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Tallon Griekspoor (Local)
Predicción 53.45%1.87momio equitativo
EV -2.72%
Ventaja -1.50%
Kelly -3.32%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.82
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.00%53.53%53.33%54.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.721.781.791.8258.14%56.32%55.87%54.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visitante)
Predicción 46.55%2.15momio equitativo
EV -0.380%
Ventaja -0.178%
Kelly -0.334%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.14
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.17%46.47%46.67%48.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.952.032.022.1451.28%49.25%49.50%46.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Tallon Griekspoor (Local): 53.45%; Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visitante): 46.55%. Para Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.15. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.14, con un valor esperado de -0.380%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (66 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -2.72%E -1.50%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-09 16:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.86%EV -3.26%E -1.80%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.14%EV -5.50%E -2.71%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -2.24%E -1.07%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-09 15:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-09 13:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-09 16:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-09 16:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-08 10:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.00%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.00%EV -5.50%E -2.71%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-09 09:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-08 12:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-08 13:59 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.79%E -2.11%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.23%E -4.73%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-09 15:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.45%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.55%EV -0.380%E -0.178%K -0.334%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-08-09 16:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.51%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.49%EV -4.10%E -1.99%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-09 15:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.51%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.49%EV -4.10%E -1.99%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-09 15:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-09 06:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -5.50%E -2.71%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 11:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -5.50%E -2.71%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 11:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -5.50%E -2.71%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 15:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.33%E -2.42%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 07:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -4.86%E -2.73%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -5.50%E -2.71%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.40%E -3.05%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-09 16:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.40%E -3.05%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.40%E -3.05%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.93%E -3.37%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.24%E -1.07%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-09 16:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.93%E -3.37%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-09 16:20 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -3.17%E -1.53%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-09 15:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-09 15:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -5.97%E -2.95%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-09 15:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV -8.29%E -4.21%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-09 07:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -9.23%E -4.73%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-09 16:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.46%E -3.69%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -9.23%E -4.73%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.00%E -4.02%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-08 08:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.00%E -4.02%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.00%E -4.02%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.57%E -2.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-09 15:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.00%E -4.02%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-09 15:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.53%E -4.35%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.24%E -1.07%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 15:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.53%E -4.35%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.24%E -1.07%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 15:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.53%E -4.35%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.24%E -1.07%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 15:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.53%E -4.35%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.24%E -1.07%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 15:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.53%E -4.35%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-09 15:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.53%E -4.35%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-09 15:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -8.07%E -4.69%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -6.90%E -3.45%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 11:59 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91% | 0.3% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91% | 0.3% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91% | 0.3% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91% | 0.3% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Novig◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.75% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 46.25% | 0.6% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86% | 1.3% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81% | 2.4% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |