Language:English
Sebastian Baez v Mattia Bellucci
Head to Head
Sebastian Baez (Local)
Prediction 52.68%1.90fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -2.99%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.48%52.55%52.67%53.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.801.801.8556.50%55.42%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Mattia Bellucci (Visit)
Prediction 47.32%2.11fair odd
EV -2.99%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -2.85%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.95%47.45%47.33%48.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.002.002.0552.36%49.95%50.00%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sebastian Baez (Local): 52.68%; Mattia Bellucci (Visit): 47.32%. For Sebastian Baez (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.90. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.85, with an expected value of -2.54%; they do not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.32%EV -2.54%E -1.37%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.68%EV -3.94%E -1.94%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-01 19:04 |
| Coolbet | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.70%EV -3.07%E -1.67%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.30%EV -2.99%E -1.46%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-01 17:50 |
| Bovada | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.60%E -1.97%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-01 18:48 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.86%EV -4.65%E -2.57%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.14%EV -3.94%E -1.94%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-01 20:29 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.86%EV -4.65%E -2.57%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.14%EV -3.94%E -1.94%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-01 20:30 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.76%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.24%EV -4.89%E -2.43%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 18:50 |
| Betway | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-01 17:09 |
| Unibet | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-01 16:15 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-01 16:14 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-01 16:15 |
| TABtouch | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-01 16:15 |
| Casumo | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-01 16:15 |
| Grosvenor | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-01 16:15 |
| Bally Bet | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-01 16:15 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-01 16:15 |
| betPARX | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-01 16:15 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-01 16:15 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-01 17:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-01 17:19 |
| 888sport | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-01 21:15 |
| BoyleSports | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.62%E -5.04%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-01 18:53 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.65%EV -5.70%E -3.19%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.35%EV -5.83%E -2.93%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-01 17:44 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.76%E -3.82%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-01 17:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.78% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.22% | 1.7% | 2026-08-01 22:15 |