Idioma:Español
Sebastian Baez v Mattia Bellucci
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Sebastian Baez (Local)
Predicción 53.47%1.87momio equitativo
EV -1.07%
Ventaja -0.581%
Kelly -1.26%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.85
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.07%53.53%53.39%55.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.691.781.801.8559.17%56.08%55.56%54.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Mattia Bellucci (Visitante)
Predicción 46.53%2.15momio equitativo
EV -0.433%
Ventaja -0.202%
Kelly -0.379%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.14
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.13%46.47%46.61%48.93%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.912.022.022.1452.36%49.52%49.50%46.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Sebastian Baez (Local): 53.47%; Mattia Bellucci (Visitante): 46.53%. Para Mattia Bellucci (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.15. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.14, con un valor esperado de -0.433%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -1.07%E -0.581%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -8.34%E -4.23%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 14:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -1.07%E -0.581%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -8.34%E -4.23%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 14:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -1.07%E -0.581%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -9.27%E -4.76%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 14:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.70%EV -1.61%E -0.875%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.30%EV -4.62%E -2.25%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.14%E -1.17%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.95%E -3.47%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-04 14:58 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.14%E -1.17%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -11.13%E -5.83%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-04 14:57 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.71%EV -3.21%E -1.78%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.29%EV -2.29%E -1.09%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-04 14:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -3.21%E -1.78%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -6.48%E -3.22%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 00:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.62%E -2.25%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-04 14:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.62%E -2.25%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.02%E -2.98%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 18:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.02%E -2.98%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 18:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.02%E -2.98%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 18:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.02%E -2.98%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 18:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.02%E -2.98%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 18:24 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.02%E -2.98%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 18:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.02%E -2.98%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 18:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.02%E -2.98%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 18:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.02%E -2.98%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 18:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.02%E -2.98%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 18:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.02%E -2.98%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 18:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.02%E -2.98%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 18:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.02%E -2.98%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.02%E -2.98%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 18:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.02%E -2.98%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 18:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.95%E -3.47%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 14:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.95%E -3.47%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 14:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.95%E -3.47%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 14:54 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.95%E -3.47%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-02 13:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.95%E -3.47%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.95%E -3.47%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 14:58 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.95%E -3.47%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-02 13:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.95%E -3.47%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 14:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.95%E -3.47%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 14:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -4.28%E -2.39%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -5.09%E -2.49%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-04 14:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.28%E -2.39%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -6.02%E -2.98%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 14:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.65%EV -4.28%E -2.39%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.35%EV -7.41%E -3.72%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -4.82%E -2.71%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -2.29%E -1.09%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.82%E -2.71%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.62%E -2.25%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 14:35 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -4.82%E -2.71%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -6.02%E -2.98%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -4.82%E -2.71%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -7.88%E -3.98%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-04 13:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -4.82%E -2.71%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -7.88%E -3.98%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-04 13:24 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -5.35%E -3.02%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -3.69%E -1.78%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 14:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.35%E -3.02%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.62%E -2.25%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 14:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.35%E -3.02%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.62%E -2.25%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 14:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.35%E -3.02%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.95%E -3.47%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-04 13:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.35%E -3.02%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.95%E -3.47%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-04 13:25 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.35%E -3.02%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.95%E -3.47%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-02 14:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.89%E -3.35%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -3.69%E -1.78%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 14:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.69%EV -5.89%E -3.35%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.31%EV -8.81%E -4.49%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-03 18:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.42%E -3.67%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.62%E -2.25%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-04 14:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.42%E -3.67%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.62%E -2.25%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.42%E -3.67%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.62%E -2.25%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.42%E -3.67%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.95%E -3.47%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-04 13:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.42%E -3.67%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.95%E -3.47%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-04 13:24 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.21%EV -6.42%E -3.67%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 46.79%EV -7.41%E -3.72%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-04 14:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.42%E -3.67%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -9.27%E -4.76%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-04 14:54 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.42%E -3.67%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -9.27%E -4.76%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-04 14:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -6.96%E -4.00%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -1.36%E -0.643%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-04 14:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.96%E -4.00%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.62%E -2.25%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 14:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.96%E -4.00%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.62%E -2.25%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 14:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -8.03%E -4.67%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -3.22%E -1.55%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 14:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -9.10%E -5.35%K -12.99%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -4.62%E -2.25%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 14:28 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.87%EV -9.63%E -5.70%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.13%EV -0.433%E -0.202%K -0.379%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.20%EV -9.63%E -5.70%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.80%EV -6.95%E -3.47%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74% | 0.7% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.0% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.0% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.0% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.41% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 47.59% | 1.5% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07% | 2.1% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 52.31% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.69% | 2.8% | 2026-08-04 15:00 |