Language:English
Nuno Borges v Luciano Darderi
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nuno Borges (Local)
Prediction 61.50%1.63fair odd
EV +3.32%
Edge +1.98%
Kelly +4.88%
Growth +0.162%
assuming max odds 1.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.08%61.38%61.63%62.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.551.561.6868.03%64.43%64.31%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Luciano Darderi (Visit)
Prediction 38.50%2.60fair odd
EV -0.669%
Edge -0.259%
Kelly -0.423%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.58
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.03%38.62%38.37%43.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.432.402.5847.17%41.21%41.67%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nuno Borges (Local): 61.50%; Luciano Darderi (Visit): 38.50%. For Nuno Borges (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.63. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.68, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.32%.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| betPARX🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV +3.32%E +1.98%K +4.88%G +0.162% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -16.84%E -7.80%K -14.52%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 16:34 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.08%EV +2.09%E +1.26%K +3.17%G +0.066% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -18.38%E -8.67%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-08 16:34 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.05%EV -2.22%E -1.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.95%EV -7.98%E -3.34%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-08 16:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -2.22%E -1.39%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -11.45%E -4.98%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-08 16:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -2.83%E -1.79%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -7.60%E -3.17%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-07 05:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.17%EV -3.45%E -2.19%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.83%EV -0.669%E -0.259%K -0.423%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-08-08 16:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.89%EV -3.45%E -2.19%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.11%EV -1.82%E -0.715%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-08 16:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -3.45%E -2.19%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -2.59%E -1.03%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-08 15:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -3.45%E -2.19%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -2.59%E -1.03%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-08 15:34 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.45%E -2.19%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.67%E -2.32%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-08 15:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.45%E -2.19%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.67%E -2.32%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-08 16:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.45%E -2.19%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.60%E -3.17%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 07:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.45%E -2.19%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.60%E -3.17%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 07:25 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.45%E -2.19%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.60%E -3.17%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 16:34 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.45%E -2.19%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.60%E -3.17%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 07:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.45%E -2.19%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.37%E -3.52%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-08 16:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.45%E -2.19%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.37%E -3.52%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-08 11:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.45%E -2.19%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -9.52%E -4.05%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-08 11:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.45%E -2.19%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -9.52%E -4.05%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-08 11:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -4.06%E -2.60%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -1.82%E -0.715%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-08 16:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -4.06%E -2.60%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -6.83%E -2.82%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 15:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.06%E -2.60%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.60%E -3.17%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 07:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.06%E -2.60%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.60%E -3.17%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 07:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.06%E -2.60%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.60%E -3.17%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 07:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.06%E -2.60%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.60%E -3.17%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 07:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.06%E -2.60%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.60%E -3.17%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 07:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.06%E -2.60%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.60%E -3.17%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 16:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.06%E -2.60%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.60%E -3.17%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 07:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.06%E -2.60%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.60%E -3.17%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 07:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.06%E -2.60%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.60%E -3.17%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 07:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.06%E -2.60%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.60%E -3.17%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 07:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.06%E -2.60%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.60%E -3.17%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 07:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.06%E -2.60%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.60%E -3.17%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 07:26 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.68%E -3.02%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -3.75%E -1.50%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-08 16:29 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -4.68%E -3.02%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%EV -4.90%E -1.99%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-08 15:34 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.68%E -3.02%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.67%E -2.32%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-08 15:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.68%E -3.02%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.60%E -3.17%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-08 16:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -4.68%E -3.02%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -9.52%E -4.05%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-08 15:38 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.29%E -3.44%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.82%E -0.715%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-08 16:33 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.07%EV -5.29%E -3.44%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.93%EV -2.98%E -1.18%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-08 15:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.29%E -3.44%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.75%E -1.50%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-08 16:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.29%E -3.44%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.75%E -1.50%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-08 16:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.29%E -3.44%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -5.67%E -2.32%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 15:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -5.29%E -3.44%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -7.60%E -3.17%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-08 11:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.13%EV -5.91%E -3.86%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.87%EV -3.36%E -1.34%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-08 15:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.91%E -3.86%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.75%E -1.50%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 16:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.91%E -3.86%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.75%E -1.50%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 16:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.91%E -3.86%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.75%E -1.50%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 16:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.91%E -3.86%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.75%E -1.50%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 16:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.91%E -3.86%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.75%E -1.50%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 15:34 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.91%E -3.86%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.75%E -1.50%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 15:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.91%E -3.86%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.75%E -1.50%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 15:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.91%E -3.86%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.67%E -2.32%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-08 15:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.91%E -3.86%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.67%E -2.32%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-08 16:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.91%E -3.86%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.67%E -2.32%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-08 16:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.91%E -3.86%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -7.60%E -3.17%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-07 15:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -5.91%E -3.86%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.37%E -3.52%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-08 11:49 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -5.91%E -3.86%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.37%E -3.52%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-08 11:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -5.91%E -3.86%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -8.75%E -3.69%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 11:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -5.91%E -3.86%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -8.75%E -3.69%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 11:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -6.52%E -4.29%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -5.67%E -2.32%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-08 16:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -6.52%E -4.29%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -5.67%E -2.32%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-08 16:29 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -6.52%E -4.29%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -5.67%E -2.32%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-08 15:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.42%EV -6.52%E -4.29%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.58%EV -10.68%E -4.60%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-08 16:34 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -7.75%E -5.17%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -9.52%E -4.05%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-08 16:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -9.60%E -6.53%K -20.42%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -3.75%E -1.50%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-08 15:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 63.26% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.74% | 0.1% | 2026-08-08 16:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 63.26% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.74% | 0.1% | 2026-08-08 16:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 63.26% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.74% | 0.1% | 2026-08-08 16:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.57% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.43% | 0.2% | 2026-08-08 16:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.57% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.43% | 0.2% | 2026-08-08 16:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.88% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.12% | 1.3% | 2026-08-08 16:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.69% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.31% | 2.0% | 2026-08-08 16:35 |