La escuela de los momiosmomios.info
Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Nuno Borges v Luciano Darderi

2026-08-08 16:30 UTC — ATP Canadian Open

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Nuno Borges (Local)

Predicción 60.11%1.66momio equitativo
EV -3.83%
Ventaja -2.39%
Kelly -6.38%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.97%60.08%60.10%60.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.501.561.571.6066.67%63.93%63.69%62.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Luciano Darderi (Visitante)

Predicción 39.89%2.51momio equitativo
EV -3.46%
Ventaja -1.43%
Kelly -2.44%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.42

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.39%39.92%39.90%41.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.352.382.4245.45%42.57%42.02%41.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Nuno Borges (Local): 60.11%; Luciano Darderi (Visitante): 39.89%. Para Luciano Darderi (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.51. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.42, con un valor esperado de -3.46%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Dabble (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.83%E -2.39%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.25%E -3.59%K -6.34%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-07 07:19
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.83%E -2.39%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.25%E -3.59%K -6.34%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-07 07:16
1xBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -4.43%E -2.79%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -3.46%E -1.43%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-07 06:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.43%E -2.79%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.26%E -1.77%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-07 06:30
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.03%E -3.18%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.26%E -1.77%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-07 05:40
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.03%E -3.18%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.26%E -1.77%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-07 05:40
GTbets🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.03%E -3.18%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.26%E -1.77%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-07 05:45
DraftKings🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.03%E -3.18%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.26%E -1.77%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-07 06:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -5.03%E -3.18%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.05%E -2.12%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 05:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -5.03%E -3.18%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.05%E -2.12%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 05:40
TAB🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -5.03%E -3.18%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -8.25%E -3.59%K -6.34%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-07 07:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -5.03%E -3.18%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -8.25%E -3.59%K -6.34%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-07 06:31
Neds🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -5.03%E -3.18%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -8.25%E -3.59%K -6.34%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-07 06:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.35%EV -5.63%E -3.59%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.65%EV -4.66%E -1.95%K -3.35%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-07 06:11
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.63%E -3.59%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.05%E -2.12%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 05:40
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.63%E -3.59%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.05%E -2.12%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 05:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.63%E -3.59%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.05%E -2.12%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 05:40
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.63%E -3.59%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.05%E -2.12%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 05:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.63%E -3.59%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.05%E -2.12%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 05:40
Casumo🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.63%E -3.59%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.05%E -2.12%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 05:40
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.63%E -3.59%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.05%E -2.12%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 05:41
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.63%E -3.59%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.05%E -2.12%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 05:41
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.63%E -3.59%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.05%E -2.12%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 05:41
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.63%E -3.59%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.05%E -2.12%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 05:41
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.63%E -3.59%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.05%E -2.12%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 05:40
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.63%E -3.59%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.05%E -2.12%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 05:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.63%E -3.59%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.05%E -2.12%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 05:40
Bally Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.63%E -3.59%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.05%E -2.12%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 05:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.63%E -3.59%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.05%E -2.12%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 05:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.63%E -3.59%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.05%E -2.12%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 05:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.63%E -3.59%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.05%E -2.12%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 05:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.63%E -3.59%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.25%E -2.66%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-07 05:40
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.63%E -3.59%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.25%E -2.66%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-07 05:40
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.63%E -3.59%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.25%E -2.66%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-07 06:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.23%E -4.00%K -11.13%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.26%E -1.77%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-07 05:45
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.23%E -4.00%K -11.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.25%E -2.66%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-07 05:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.23%E -4.00%K -11.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.25%E -2.66%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-07 05:51
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%EV -6.23%E -4.00%K -11.13%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -7.45%E -3.21%K -5.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-07 05:40
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -6.83%E -4.41%K -12.43%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -5.05%E -2.12%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-07 06:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.15%EV -6.83%E -4.41%K -12.43%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 39.85%EV -6.65%E -2.84%K -4.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-07 05:40
LeoVegas🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.83%E -4.41%K -12.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.25%E -3.59%K -6.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-07 05:41
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.83%E -4.41%K -12.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.25%E -3.59%K -6.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-07 06:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.83%E -4.41%K -12.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.25%E -3.59%K -6.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-07 06:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.83%E -4.41%K -12.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.25%E -3.59%K -6.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-07 07:05
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -8.04%E -5.25%K -15.16%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.25%E -3.59%K -6.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-07 05:45
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -8.04%E -5.25%K -15.16%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.25%E -3.59%K -6.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-07 05:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.79%EV -8.64%E -5.68%K -16.61%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 40.21%EV -9.84%E -4.35%K -7.81%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-07 05:40
ReBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.79%EV -8.64%E -5.68%K -16.61%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 40.21%EV -9.84%E -4.35%K -7.81%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-07 05:41
Unibet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.46%EV -9.84%E -6.56%K -19.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -12.24%E -5.56%K -10.20%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-07 05:41
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.46%EV -9.84%E -6.56%K -19.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -12.24%E -5.56%K -10.20%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-07 05:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig◎1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%6.5%2026-08-07 06:40
Smarkets◎1.50I 66.67%NM 59.68%2.22I 45.05%NM 40.32%11.7%2026-08-07 07:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 60.22%2.18I 45.87%NM 39.78%15.3%2026-08-07 07:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 60.22%2.18I 45.87%NM 39.78%15.3%2026-08-07 07:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 45.16%1.12I 89.29%NM 54.84%62.8%2026-08-07 07:50