Language:English
Nicolas Mejia v Martin Landaluce
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nicolas Mejia (Local)
Prediction 32.09%3.12fair odd
EV +2.04%
Edge +0.641%
Kelly +0.935%
Growth +0.019%
assuming max odds 3.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.49%32.04%31.69%33.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.963.003.1836.36%33.74%33.33%31.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Martin Landaluce (Visit)
Prediction 67.91%1.47fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -5.01%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.27%67.96%68.31%69.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.381.381.4474.07%72.20%72.46%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nicolas Mejia (Local): 32.09%; Martin Landaluce (Visit): 67.91%. For Nicolas Mejia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.12. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.18, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.04%.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.18I 31.45%NM 30.57%EV +2.04%E +0.641%K +0.935%G +0.019% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.43%EV -4.92%E -3.52%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-03 08:01 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV +1.08%E +0.341%K +0.500%G +0.005% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23%EV -4.92%E -3.52%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -0.529%E -0.171%K -0.252%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -6.28%E -4.55%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-03 10:24 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -0.529%E -0.171%K -0.252%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.64%E -5.62%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-03 14:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.09I 32.36%NM 30.72%EV -0.850%E -0.275%K -0.407%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.28%EV -6.96%E -5.08%K -18.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 10:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.69%EV -2.45%E -0.807%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.31%EV -4.24%E -3.01%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-02 14:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.69%EV -2.45%E -0.807%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.31%EV -4.24%E -3.01%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-02 14:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.92%E -3.52%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-03 17:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.92%E -3.52%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-03 13:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.28%E -4.55%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 09:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.28%E -4.55%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-03 17:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.28%E -4.55%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 09:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.28%E -4.55%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 09:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.28%E -4.55%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 09:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.28%E -4.55%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 09:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.28%E -4.55%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 09:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.28%E -4.55%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 09:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.28%E -4.55%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 09:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.28%E -4.55%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 09:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.28%E -4.55%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 09:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.28%E -4.55%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 09:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.28%E -4.55%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 12:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.28%E -4.55%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 13:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.28%E -4.55%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 13:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.28%E -4.55%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-03 07:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.28%E -4.55%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-03 07:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.28%E -4.55%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 14:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.64%E -5.62%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-03 17:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.64%E -5.62%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-03 17:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.64%E -5.62%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-03 17:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.64%E -5.62%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-02 13:29 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.64%E -5.62%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-03 10:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.64%E -5.62%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-03 15:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.64%E -5.62%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-03 17:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.64%E -5.62%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-02 14:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -8.32%E -6.16%K -23.77%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-03 14:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -3.74%E -1.25%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -8.32%E -6.16%K -23.77%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-03 14:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -6.95%E -2.40%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -2.21%E -1.53%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-02 20:23 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.95%E -2.40%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.56%E -2.51%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-03 16:55 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.95%E -2.40%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.56%E -2.51%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-03 16:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.95%E -2.40%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.28%E -4.55%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-03 14:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.95%E -2.40%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.28%E -4.55%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-02 15:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.95%E -2.40%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.28%E -4.55%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-03 14:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.59%E -2.63%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.92%E -3.52%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-03 16:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.59%E -2.63%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.92%E -3.52%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-02 12:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -7.59%E -2.63%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.64%E -5.62%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-03 03:24 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.55%E -3.00%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.56%E -2.51%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-03 16:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.55%E -3.00%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.56%E -2.51%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-03 12:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.55%E -3.00%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.56%E -2.51%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-03 12:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -8.55%E -3.00%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -4.92%E -3.52%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-02 20:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -8.55%E -3.00%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.86%EV -8.32%E -6.16%K -23.77%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-03 17:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.33%EV -8.87%E -3.12%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.67%EV -3.56%E -2.51%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-03 16:54 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -10.16%E -3.63%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.92%E -3.52%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-03 15:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -10.16%E -3.63%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.92%E -3.52%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-03 17:06 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -10.16%E -3.63%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.92%E -3.52%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-03 17:08 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -11.76%E -4.28%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.92%E -3.52%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-03 17:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 0.7% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 0.7% | 2026-08-03 15:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 0.7% | 2026-08-03 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 0.7% | 2026-08-03 16:30 |
| Novig◎ | 3.28I 30.49%NM 30.21% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.79% | 0.9% | 2026-08-03 16:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.89% | 2.2% | 2026-08-03 17:05 |
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