Language:English
Matteo Berrettini v Mariano Navone
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Matteo Berrettini (Local)
Prediction 63.87%1.57fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -3.04%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.56%63.96%64.20%67.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.471.471.5471.43%68.13%68.03%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Mariano Navone (Visit)
Prediction 36.13%2.77fair odd
EV +4.78%
Edge +1.65%
Kelly +2.52%
Growth +0.120%
assuming max odds 2.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.56%36.04%35.80%38.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.692.702.9040.82%37.24%37.04%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Matteo Berrettini (Local): 63.87%; Mariano Navone (Visit): 36.13%. For Mariano Navone (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.77. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.78%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -10.58%E -7.56%K -26.46%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +4.78%E +1.65%K +2.52%G +0.120% | 5.9% | 2026-08-03 16:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -10.58%E -7.56%K -26.46%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +4.78%E +1.65%K +2.52%G +0.120% | 5.9% | 2026-08-03 16:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -10.58%E -7.56%K -26.46%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +4.78%E +1.65%K +2.52%G +0.120% | 5.9% | 2026-08-03 16:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -10.58%E -7.56%K -26.46%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +4.78%E +1.65%K +2.52%G +0.120% | 5.9% | 2026-08-03 16:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.21%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.79%EV +4.06%E +1.41%K +2.16%G +0.088% | 2.7% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.27%EV -4.84%E -3.25%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%EV +1.17%E +0.417%K +0.648%G +0.008% | 2.8% | 2026-08-03 16:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -7.39%E -5.10%K -16.42%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV +1.17%E +0.417%K +0.648%G +0.008% | 4.7% | 2026-08-03 15:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -8.67%E -6.06%K -20.16%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +1.17%E +0.417%K +0.648%G +0.008% | 5.6% | 2026-08-03 15:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.80%EV -7.39%E -5.10%K -16.42%G +0.000% | 2.79I 35.84%NM 34.20%EV +0.806%E +0.289%K +0.450%G +0.004% | 4.8% | 2026-08-03 15:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -4.84%E -3.25%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV +0.083%E +0.030%K +0.047%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-03 16:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -4.84%E -3.25%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV +0.083%E +0.030%K +0.047%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-03 16:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -0.640%E -0.233%K -0.365%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-03 15:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -0.640%E -0.233%K -0.365%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-03 15:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -0.640%E -0.233%K -0.365%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-03 15:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -0.640%E -0.233%K -0.365%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-03 16:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -9.31%E -6.55%K -22.16%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -0.640%E -0.233%K -0.365%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-03 16:38 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -10.58%E -7.56%K -26.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -0.640%E -0.233%K -0.365%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-03 15:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -10.58%E -7.56%K -26.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -0.640%E -0.233%K -0.365%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-03 15:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.20%E -2.80%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-03 10:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.47%E -3.70%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-03 15:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.47%E -3.70%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.39%E -5.10%K -16.42%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-03 15:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.39%E -5.10%K -16.42%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-03 15:55 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.47%E -3.70%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.25%E -1.60%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-03 16:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.25%E -1.60%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-03 16:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -6.75%E -4.62%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -4.25%E -1.60%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-03 17:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -9.31%E -6.55%K -22.16%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -4.25%E -1.60%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-03 15:14 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -4.98%E -1.89%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-03 16:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -4.84%E -3.25%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -6.06%E -2.33%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-03 17:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -6.75%E -4.62%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.06%E -2.33%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-03 16:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.39%E -5.10%K -16.42%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.06%E -2.33%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-03 16:59 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.39%E -5.10%K -16.42%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.06%E -2.33%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-03 16:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -1.64%E -1.07%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -7.87%E -3.08%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-03 16:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -1.64%E -1.07%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -9.67%E -3.87%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-03 16:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -1.64%E -1.07%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -9.67%E -3.87%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-03 17:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.28%E -1.49%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.67%E -3.87%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 05:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.28%E -1.49%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.67%E -3.87%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 16:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -2.92%E -1.92%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -9.67%E -3.87%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-03 16:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -2.92%E -1.92%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -9.67%E -3.87%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-03 16:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.20%E -2.80%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.67%E -3.87%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-03 16:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -2.28%E -1.49%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -11.48%E -4.69%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-03 17:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -2.28%E -1.49%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -11.48%E -4.69%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-03 16:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 0.8% | 2026-08-03 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 0.8% | 2026-08-03 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 0.8% | 2026-08-03 16:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89% | 1.4% | 2026-08-03 17:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.42% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58% | 2.3% | 2026-08-03 16:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.42% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58% | 2.3% | 2026-08-03 16:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.12% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.88% | 3.5% | 2026-08-03 16:50 |
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