Idioma:Español
Matteo Berrettini v Mariano Navone
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Matteo Berrettini (Local)
Predicción 63.87%1.57momio equitativo
EV -1.64%
Ventaja -1.07%
Kelly -3.04%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.54
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
61.56%63.96%64.20%67.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.401.471.471.5471.43%68.13%68.03%64.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Mariano Navone (Visitante)
Predicción 36.13%2.77momio equitativo
EV +4.78%
Ventaja +1.65%
Kelly +2.52%
Crecimiento +0.120%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.90
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.56%36.04%35.80%38.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.452.692.702.9040.82%37.24%37.04%34.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Matteo Berrettini (Local): 63.87%; Mariano Navone (Visitante): 36.13%. Para Mariano Navone (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.77. 11 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.90, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.78%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -10.58%E -7.56%K -26.46%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +4.78%E +1.65%K +2.52%G +0.120% | 5.9% | 2026-08-03 16:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -10.58%E -7.56%K -26.46%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +4.78%E +1.65%K +2.52%G +0.120% | 5.9% | 2026-08-03 16:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -10.58%E -7.56%K -26.46%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +4.78%E +1.65%K +2.52%G +0.120% | 5.9% | 2026-08-03 16:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -10.58%E -7.56%K -26.46%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +4.78%E +1.65%K +2.52%G +0.120% | 5.9% | 2026-08-03 16:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.21%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.79%EV +4.06%E +1.41%K +2.16%G +0.088% | 2.7% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.27%EV -4.84%E -3.25%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%EV +1.17%E +0.417%K +0.648%G +0.008% | 2.8% | 2026-08-03 16:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -7.39%E -5.10%K -16.42%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV +1.17%E +0.417%K +0.648%G +0.008% | 4.7% | 2026-08-03 15:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -8.67%E -6.06%K -20.16%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +1.17%E +0.417%K +0.648%G +0.008% | 5.6% | 2026-08-03 15:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.80%EV -7.39%E -5.10%K -16.42%G +0.000% | 2.79I 35.84%NM 34.20%EV +0.806%E +0.289%K +0.450%G +0.004% | 4.8% | 2026-08-03 15:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -4.84%E -3.25%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV +0.083%E +0.030%K +0.047%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-03 16:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -4.84%E -3.25%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV +0.083%E +0.030%K +0.047%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-03 16:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -0.640%E -0.233%K -0.365%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-03 15:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -0.640%E -0.233%K -0.365%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-03 15:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -0.640%E -0.233%K -0.365%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-03 15:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -0.640%E -0.233%K -0.365%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-03 16:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -9.31%E -6.55%K -22.16%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -0.640%E -0.233%K -0.365%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-03 16:38 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -10.58%E -7.56%K -26.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -0.640%E -0.233%K -0.365%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-03 15:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -10.58%E -7.56%K -26.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -0.640%E -0.233%K -0.365%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-03 15:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.20%E -2.80%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-03 10:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.47%E -3.70%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-03 15:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.47%E -3.70%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-03 16:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.39%E -5.10%K -16.42%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-03 15:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.39%E -5.10%K -16.42%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.45%E -0.906%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-03 15:55 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.47%E -3.70%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.25%E -1.60%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-03 16:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.25%E -1.60%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-03 16:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -6.75%E -4.62%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -4.25%E -1.60%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-03 17:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -9.31%E -6.55%K -22.16%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -4.25%E -1.60%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-03 15:14 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -4.98%E -1.89%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-03 16:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -4.84%E -3.25%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -6.06%E -2.33%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-03 17:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -6.75%E -4.62%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.06%E -2.33%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-03 16:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.39%E -5.10%K -16.42%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.06%E -2.33%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-03 16:59 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.39%E -5.10%K -16.42%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.06%E -2.33%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-03 16:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -1.64%E -1.07%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -7.87%E -3.08%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-03 16:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -1.64%E -1.07%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -9.67%E -3.87%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-03 16:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -1.64%E -1.07%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -9.67%E -3.87%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-03 17:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.28%E -1.49%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.67%E -3.87%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 05:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.28%E -1.49%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.67%E -3.87%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 16:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -2.92%E -1.92%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -9.67%E -3.87%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-03 16:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -2.92%E -1.92%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -9.67%E -3.87%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-03 16:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.20%E -2.80%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.67%E -3.87%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-03 16:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -2.28%E -1.49%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -11.48%E -4.69%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-03 17:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -2.28%E -1.49%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -11.48%E -4.69%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-03 16:54 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 0.8% | 2026-08-03 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 0.8% | 2026-08-03 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 0.8% | 2026-08-03 16:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89% | 1.4% | 2026-08-03 17:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.42% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58% | 2.3% | 2026-08-03 16:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.42% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58% | 2.3% | 2026-08-03 16:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.12% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.88% | 3.5% | 2026-08-03 16:50 |