Language:English
Luciano Darderi v Gabriel Diallo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Luciano Darderi (Local)
Prediction 41.61%2.40fair odd
EV -0.135%
Edge -0.056%
Kelly -0.096%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.93%41.61%41.58%43.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.142.262.252.4046.73%44.31%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Gabriel Diallo (Visit)
Prediction 58.39%1.71fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.782%
Kelly -1.92%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.69
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.22%58.39%58.42%61.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.631.631.6965.36%61.20%61.35%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luciano Darderi (Local): 41.61%; Gabriel Diallo (Visit): 58.39%. For Luciano Darderi (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.403. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.400, with an expected value of -0.135%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -0.135%E -0.056%K -0.096%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -7.16%E -4.50%K -12.14%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-05 00:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -0.135%E -0.056%K -0.096%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -10.66%E -6.97%K -20.12%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-04 22:07 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.69%EV -0.551%E -0.230%K -0.396%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.31%EV -4.24%E -2.59%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-04 23:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -0.551%E -0.230%K -0.396%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -7.74%E -4.90%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-05 00:44 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.967%E -0.406%K -0.701%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.33%E -5.30%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-05 00:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.967%E -0.406%K -0.701%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.33%E -5.30%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-05 00:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.90%EV -1.38%E -0.584%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.10%EV -4.24%E -2.59%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-05 01:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.90%EV -1.38%E -0.584%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.10%EV -4.24%E -2.59%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-05 01:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -2.22%E -0.943%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.99%E -3.72%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 01:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%EV -3.46%E -1.49%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%EV -2.49%E -1.49%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-05 01:24 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.66%E -2.22%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-05 00:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.66%E -2.22%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -4.24%E -2.59%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-05 00:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -4.24%E -2.59%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-05 00:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.41%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 00:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.41%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 00:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.41%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 23:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.41%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.99%E -3.72%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 21:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.99%E -3.72%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 21:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.99%E -3.72%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 21:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.99%E -3.72%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 21:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -10.66%E -6.97%K -20.12%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-05 01:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -4.71%E -2.06%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -4.83%E -2.96%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 00:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -4.71%E -2.06%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -4.83%E -2.96%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 00:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -4.71%E -2.06%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -4.83%E -2.96%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 00:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -4.71%E -2.06%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -4.83%E -2.96%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 00:14 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -5.96%E -2.64%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -2.49%E -1.49%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-05 00:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.38%E -2.83%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.49%E -1.49%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.38%E -2.83%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.24%E -2.59%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 01:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.38%E -2.83%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.83%E -2.96%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.38%E -2.83%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.41%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 21:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.38%E -2.83%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.41%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 00:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.38%E -2.83%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.41%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 01:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.38%E -2.83%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.41%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 21:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.38%E -2.83%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.41%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.38%E -2.83%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.41%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.38%E -2.83%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.41%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.38%E -2.83%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.58%E -4.11%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 00:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.38%E -2.83%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.58%E -4.11%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.38%E -2.83%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.33%E -5.30%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.38%E -2.83%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.33%E -5.30%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -8.46%E -3.84%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -1.32%E -0.782%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.46%E -3.84%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.49%E -1.49%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 01:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.46%E -3.84%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.66%E -2.22%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 00:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.46%E -3.84%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.66%E -2.22%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 01:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.46%E -3.84%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.41%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-05 01:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.46%E -3.84%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.58%E -4.11%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 00:10 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.46%E -3.84%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.58%E -4.11%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 00:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -9.29%E -4.26%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -1.91%E -1.13%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 21:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -9.29%E -4.26%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -1.91%E -1.13%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -9.29%E -4.26%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -1.91%E -1.13%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 21:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -9.29%E -4.26%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -1.91%E -1.13%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -9.29%E -4.26%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -1.91%E -1.13%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -9.29%E -4.26%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -1.91%E -1.13%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -9.29%E -4.26%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -1.91%E -1.13%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -9.29%E -4.26%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -1.91%E -1.13%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -9.29%E -4.26%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -1.91%E -1.13%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -9.29%E -4.26%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -1.91%E -1.13%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -9.29%E -4.26%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -1.91%E -1.13%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -9.29%E -4.26%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -1.91%E -1.13%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 21:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -9.29%E -4.26%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -1.91%E -1.13%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -9.29%E -4.26%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -1.91%E -1.13%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -9.71%E -4.47%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.22%EV -1.32%E -0.782%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 00:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -10.54%E -4.90%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -5.41%E -3.34%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.54%EV -10.95%E -5.12%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -3.66%E -2.22%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.92% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 59.08% | 0.2% | 2026-08-05 01:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.92% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 59.08% | 0.2% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88% | 0.5% | 2026-08-05 01:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22% | 0.5% | 2026-08-05 01:30 |
| Novig◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62% | 1.5% | 2026-08-05 01:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62% | 1.5% | 2026-08-05 01:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.29% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.71% | 2.6% | 2026-08-05 01:30 |