Idioma:Español
Luciano Darderi v Gabriel Diallo
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Luciano Darderi (Local)
Predicción 42.13%2.37momio equitativo
EV +1.11%
Ventaja +0.461%
Kelly +0.790%
Crecimiento +0.009%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.40
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.93%41.92%42.28%44.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.142.252.252.4046.73%44.44%44.44%41.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Gabriel Diallo (Visitante)
Predicción 57.87%1.73momio equitativo
EV +1.28%
Ventaja +0.730%
Kelly +1.70%
Crecimiento +0.022%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.75
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.70%58.08%57.72%61.07%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.531.641.651.7565.36%60.89%60.61%57.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Luciano Darderi (Local): 42.13%; Gabriel Diallo (Visitante): 57.87%. Para Gabriel Diallo (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 1.73. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 1.75, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.28%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.30%EV -7.32%E -3.33%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.70%EV +1.28%E +0.730%K +1.70%G +0.022% | 2.6% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -7.32%E -3.33%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -2.20%E -1.30%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| 1xBet | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -5.63%E -2.52%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -2.77%E -1.65%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 23:30 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.16%E -3.74%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.77%E -1.65%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 21:59 |
| Casumo | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.16%E -3.74%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.77%E -1.65%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Unibet | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.16%E -3.74%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.77%E -1.65%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 21:59 |
| TABtouch | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.16%E -3.74%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.77%E -1.65%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.16%E -3.74%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.77%E -1.65%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.16%E -3.74%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.77%E -1.65%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.16%E -3.74%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.77%E -1.65%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| BetRivers | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.16%E -3.74%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.77%E -1.65%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.16%E -3.74%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.77%E -1.65%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Grosvenor | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.16%E -3.74%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.77%E -1.65%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.16%E -3.74%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.77%E -1.65%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| betPARX | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.16%E -3.74%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.77%E -1.65%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 21:59 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.16%E -3.74%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.77%E -1.65%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Bally Bet | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.16%E -3.74%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.77%E -1.65%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Coolbet | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%EV -2.26%E -0.976%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%EV -3.35%E -2.01%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-04 23:30 |
| Fanatics | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.21%E -2.32%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.35%E -2.01%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| BoyleSports | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.21%E -2.32%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.35%E -2.01%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -3.11%E -1.35%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -3.93%E -2.37%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -5.21%E -2.32%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -3.93%E -2.37%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| DraftKings | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -6.06%E -2.72%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.93%E -2.37%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 22:50 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.21I 45.25%NM 42.89%EV -6.90%E -3.12%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.11%EV -3.93%E -2.37%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 23:30 |
| Bovada | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.11%E -1.35%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.51%E -2.73%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.09%EV -4.37%E -1.93%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.91%EV -4.51%E -2.73%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 00:04 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.21%E -2.32%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.51%E -2.73%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| theScore Bet | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.21%E -2.32%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.51%E -2.73%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| ReBet | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.21%E -2.32%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.51%E -2.73%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 23:14 |
| BetAnything | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.21%E -2.32%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.51%E -2.73%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 23:35 |
| NordicBet | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.21%E -2.32%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.51%E -2.73%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| Betsson | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.21%E -2.32%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.51%E -2.73%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 22:04 |
| Betway | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.32%E -3.33%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.51%E -2.73%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 21:50 |
| PMU (FR) | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.54%EV -9.85%E -4.60%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -4.51%E -2.73%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Pinnacle | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.69%EV +0.685%E +0.287%K +0.493%G +0.003% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.31%EV -5.09%E -3.10%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-04 23:40 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -7.32%E -3.33%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -5.09%E -3.10%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-04 22:04 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.21%E -2.32%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.67%E -3.48%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| PlayUp | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.21%E -2.32%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.67%E -3.48%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 23:45 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV +1.11%E +0.461%K +0.790%G +0.009% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-04 23:25 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV +1.11%E +0.461%K +0.790%G +0.009% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-04 23:25 |
| Sky Bet | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV +0.264%E +0.111%K +0.191%G +0.001% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-04 23:00 |
| FanDuel | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -0.579%E -0.245%K -0.426%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-04 23:05 |
| Paddy Power | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.11%E -1.35%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| Dabble (AU) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.11%E -1.35%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 23:45 |
| BetUS | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.11%E -1.35%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 23:10 |
| William Hill | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.11%E -1.35%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| LeoVegas | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.21%E -2.32%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 21:59 |
| Betr (AU) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.21%E -2.32%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 23:30 |
| betfred_uk | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.21%E -2.32%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 21:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.21%E -2.32%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Neds | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.21%E -2.32%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.21%E -2.32%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| Tipico (DE) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -9.43%E -4.38%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -6.25%E -3.86%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| SportsBet | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -1.00%E -0.426%K -0.741%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -6.83%E -4.24%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-04 23:05 |
| BetMGM | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.11%E -1.35%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.83%E -4.24%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 21:59 |
| 888sport | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.11%E -1.35%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.83%E -4.24%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 21:59 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.11%E -1.35%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.83%E -4.24%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 21:59 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.11%E -1.35%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.83%E -4.24%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 21:59 |
| Bet Victor | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.32%E -3.33%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.83%E -4.24%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 23:18 |
| betano_uk | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.32%E -3.33%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.83%E -4.24%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 23:19 |
| NetBet (FR) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.21%E -2.32%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.40%E -4.63%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| TAB | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -3.11%E -1.35%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -8.56%E -5.42%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-04 23:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.21%E -2.32%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -9.14%E -5.82%K -16.04%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Coral | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.21%E -2.32%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -9.14%E -5.82%K -16.04%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Caesars | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV +1.11%E +0.461%K +0.790%G +0.009% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -11.46%E -7.49%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-04 22:07 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56% | 0.5% | 2026-08-04 23:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56% | 0.5% | 2026-08-05 00:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56% | 0.5% | 2026-08-04 23:50 |
| Matchbook | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56% | 0.5% | 2026-08-05 00:05 |
| ProphetX | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56% | 0.5% | 2026-08-05 00:05 |
| Novig | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24% | 0.6% | 2026-08-05 00:05 |
| Smarkets | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26% | 2.3% | 2026-08-05 00:05 |