Language:English
Fabian Marozsan v Matteo Arnaldi
Head to Head
Fabian Marozsan (Local)
Prediction 58.78%1.70fair odd
EV -1.84%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -2.75%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.84%58.73%58.75%59.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.611.621.6764.10%62.07%61.73%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Matteo Arnaldi (Visit)
Prediction 41.22%2.43fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -0.794%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.50%41.27%41.25%42.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.292.302.3846.08%43.67%43.48%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Fabian Marozsan (Local): 58.78%; Matteo Arnaldi (Visit): 41.22%. For Fabian Marozsan (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.70. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.67, with an expected value of -1.84%; they do not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%EV -1.84%E -1.10%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%EV -4.36%E -1.88%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-05 06:35 |
| Dabble (AU) | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.61%E -2.20%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -7.25%E -3.22%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 07:04 |
| 1xBet | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -4.19%E -2.57%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -3.54%E -1.51%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-05 06:34 |
| PlayUp | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.19%E -2.57%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -7.25%E -3.22%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 07:04 |
| Sky Bet | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -4.78%E -2.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -1.89%E -0.794%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-05 05:55 |
| Fanatics | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.78%E -2.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.13%E -1.33%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-05 05:50 |
| Betsson | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.78%E -2.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 05:50 |
| NordicBet | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.78%E -2.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 05:50 |
| William Hill | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.78%E -2.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 06:35 |
| BoyleSports | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.78%E -2.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 07:05 |
| BetRivers | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.78%E -2.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 07:15 |
| Unibet | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.78%E -2.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 07:15 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.78%E -2.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 07:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.78%E -2.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 07:14 |
| Casumo | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.78%E -2.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 07:15 |
| TABtouch | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.78%E -2.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 07:15 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.78%E -2.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 07:15 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.78%E -2.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 07:15 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.78%E -2.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 07:15 |
| Grosvenor | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.78%E -2.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 07:15 |
| Bally Bet | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.78%E -2.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 07:15 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.78%E -2.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 07:15 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.78%E -2.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 07:15 |
| betPARX | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.78%E -2.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 07:15 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.57%EV -4.78%E -2.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.43%EV -5.60%E -2.45%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 05:55 |
| betfred_uk | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.78%E -2.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.25%E -3.22%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 06:29 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.78%E -2.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.25%E -3.22%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 07:20 |
| FanDuel | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.45%EV -5.37%E -3.33%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.55%EV -2.71%E -1.15%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-05 05:55 |
| Bovada | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.37%E -3.33%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.13%E -1.33%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 06:33 |
| GTbets | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -5.37%E -3.33%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -3.54%E -1.51%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 06:25 |
| DraftKings | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -5.37%E -3.33%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -3.95%E -1.70%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 06:29 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.93%EV -5.37%E -3.33%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.07%EV -4.77%E -2.07%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 06:29 |
| 888sport | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.37%E -3.33%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-05 06:30 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.37%E -3.33%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-05 06:30 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.37%E -3.33%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-05 06:29 |
| theScore Bet | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.37%E -3.33%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.25%E -3.22%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-05 05:50 |
| SportsBet | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.96%E -3.72%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.13%E -1.33%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-05 05:49 |
| Betway | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.96%E -3.72%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-05 05:55 |
| betano_uk | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.96%E -3.72%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -9.31%E -4.23%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 06:05 |
| Bet Victor | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.96%E -3.72%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -9.31%E -4.23%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 06:04 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.54%E -4.12%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-05 05:50 |
| ReBet | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.27%EV -6.54%E -4.12%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.73%EV -8.48%E -3.82%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-05 05:49 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.05%EV -6.54%E -4.12%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.95%EV -9.31%E -4.23%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-05 05:50 |
| Paddy Power | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.72%E -4.92%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -5.19%E -2.26%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-05 05:55 |
| LeoVegas | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.72%E -4.92%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.25%E -3.22%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-05 06:29 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.72%E -4.92%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.25%E -3.22%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-05 06:49 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.72%E -4.92%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.25%E -3.22%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-05 07:14 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.18%EV -8.31%E -5.33%K -14.84%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.82%EV -10.55%E -4.86%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-05 05:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.2% | 2026-08-05 07:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16% | 2.9% | 2026-08-05 07:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16% | 2.9% | 2026-08-05 07:10 |
| Matchbook | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07% | 3.4% | 2026-08-05 07:15 |
| Smarkets | 1.19I 84.03%NM 64.69% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 35.31% | 29.9% | 2026-08-05 07:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 37.99% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 62.01% | 52.1% | 2026-08-05 07:25 |