Idioma:Español
Fabian Marozsan v Matteo Arnaldi
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Fabian Marozsan (Local)
Predicción 57.02%1.75momio equitativo
EV -3.06%
Ventaja -1.80%
Kelly -4.37%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.70
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.28%57.13%56.98%58.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.601.661.671.7062.50%60.09%59.88%58.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Matteo Arnaldi (Visitante)
Predicción 42.98%2.33momio equitativo
EV -0.293%
Ventaja -0.126%
Kelly -0.222%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.32
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.69%42.87%43.02%43.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.152.212.202.3246.51%45.29%45.45%43.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Fabian Marozsan (Local): 57.02%; Matteo Arnaldi (Visitante): 42.98%. Para Matteo Arnaldi (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.33. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.32, con un valor esperado de -0.293%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.18%EV -3.06%E -1.80%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.82%EV -2.44%E -1.08%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-05 21:24 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.06%E -1.80%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -4.59%E -2.07%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-05 08:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.06%E -1.80%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-05 09:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.63%E -2.15%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-05 17:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.63%E -2.15%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-05 17:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.63%E -2.15%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-05 17:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.44%EV -3.63%E -2.15%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.56%EV -5.88%E -2.69%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 17:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.44%EV -3.63%E -2.15%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.56%EV -5.88%E -2.69%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 17:20 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.44%EV -3.63%E -2.15%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.56%EV -5.88%E -2.69%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 20:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%EV -4.20%E -2.50%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -1.15%E -0.501%K -0.887%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-05 21:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.20%E -2.50%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.73%E -1.67%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-05 21:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.20%E -2.50%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 17:20 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.20%E -2.50%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 21:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.20%E -2.50%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 09:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.30%E -1.47%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-05 17:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -4.16%E -1.87%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 19:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 17:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 15:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 17:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 15:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 15:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 15:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 15:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 17:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 07:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 07:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 07:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 07:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 07:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 07:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 17:25 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 17:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 19:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.60%E -3.53%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-05 15:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.77%E -2.86%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.60%E -3.53%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-05 15:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV -5.34%E -3.22%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -0.293%E -0.126%K -0.222%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-05 20:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV -5.34%E -3.22%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -0.293%E -0.126%K -0.222%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-05 20:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.11%EV -5.34%E -3.22%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 42.89%EV -5.02%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 21:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.91%EV -5.91%E -3.58%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.09%EV -2.44%E -1.08%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 21:38 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.91%E -3.58%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.30%E -1.47%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-05 21:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.91%E -3.58%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 17:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.91%E -3.58%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 21:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.91%E -3.58%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 17:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.91%E -3.58%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 15:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -5.91%E -3.58%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -6.31%E -2.89%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-05 17:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.91%E -3.58%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.60%E -3.53%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-05 15:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.91%E -3.58%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.60%E -3.53%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-05 15:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.91%E -3.58%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.60%E -3.53%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-05 21:13 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -7.05%E -4.33%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -2.01%E -0.883%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 21:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -7.05%E -4.33%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-05 17:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.99%EV -7.05%E -4.33%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.01%EV -7.17%E -3.32%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.62%E -4.71%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.30%E -1.47%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 21:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.62%E -4.71%K -12.29%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.30%E -1.47%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 21:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.19%E -5.09%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-05 21:22 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.19%E -5.09%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-05 21:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.76%E -5.48%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -5.45%E -2.48%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 17:20 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 0.5% | 2026-08-05 21:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 0.5% | 2026-08-05 21:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32% | 0.8% | 2026-08-05 21:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32% | 0.8% | 2026-08-05 21:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.2% | 2026-08-05 21:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.18% | 1.2% | 2026-08-05 21:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.71% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.29% | 2.6% | 2026-08-05 21:40 |