Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Camilo Ugo Carabelli v Cameron Norrie

Início: 2026-08-04 01:45 UTC

Final: Camilo Ugo Carabelli 0–2 Cameron Norrie

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

64 casas de apostas (22 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local)

Previsão 21.07%4.75odd justa
EV +2.17%
Vantagem +0.448%
Kelly +0.564%
Crescimento +0.012%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.85

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
19.66%21.18%21.05%23.66%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.004.474.504.8525.00%22.35%22.22%20.62%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Cameron Norrie (Visitante)

Previsão 78.93%1.27odd justa
EV -2.12%
Vantagem -1.71%
Kelly -8.84%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.24

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
76.34%78.82%78.95%80.34%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.151.201.201.2486.96%83.16%83.33%80.65%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local): 21.07%; Cameron Norrie (Visitante): 78.93%. Para Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.75. 4 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.85, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +2.17%.

Odds das casas de apostas (64 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
Betclic (FR)🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.83%EV +2.17%E +0.448%K +0.564%G +0.012%1.20I 83.33%NM 80.17%EV -5.28%E -4.40%K -26.40%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-04 01:39
Pinnacle🎯4.77I 20.96%NM 20.37%EV +0.486%E +0.102%K +0.129%G +0.001%1.22I 81.97%NM 79.63%EV -3.70%E -3.03%K -16.82%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-03 23:55
Coolbet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.44%EV +0.064%E +0.014%K +0.017%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 79.56%EV -3.70%E -3.03%K -16.82%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-04 01:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV +0.064%E +0.014%K +0.017%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -6.07%E -5.10%K -31.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-03 22:00
Winamax (DE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.61%EV -0.989%E -0.210%K -0.267%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 79.39%EV -3.70%E -3.03%K -16.82%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-04 00:39
Unibet (UK)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -0.989%E -0.210%K -0.267%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -5.28%E -4.40%K -26.40%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 00:40
ATG (SE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -0.989%E -0.210%K -0.267%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.07%E -5.10%K -31.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 22:00
Svenska Spel🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -0.989%E -0.210%K -0.267%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.07%E -5.10%K -31.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 22:04
Grosvenor🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -0.989%E -0.210%K -0.267%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.07%E -5.10%K -31.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 22:00
betPARX🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -0.989%E -0.210%K -0.267%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.07%E -5.10%K -31.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 22:05
Casumo🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -0.989%E -0.210%K -0.267%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.07%E -5.10%K -31.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 22:05
Unibet (NL)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -0.989%E -0.210%K -0.267%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.07%E -5.10%K -31.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 22:04
TABtouch🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -0.989%E -0.210%K -0.267%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.07%E -5.10%K -31.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 22:05
Unibet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -0.989%E -0.210%K -0.267%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.07%E -5.10%K -31.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 22:05
Bally Bet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -0.989%E -0.210%K -0.267%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.07%E -5.10%K -31.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 22:00
Unibet (SE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -0.989%E -0.210%K -0.267%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.07%E -5.10%K -31.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 22:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -0.989%E -0.210%K -0.267%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.07%E -5.10%K -31.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 22:04
BetRivers🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -0.989%E -0.210%K -0.267%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.07%E -5.10%K -31.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 22:05
Virgin Bet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -0.989%E -0.210%K -0.267%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.07%E -5.10%K -31.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 22:05
LiveScore Bet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -0.989%E -0.210%K -0.267%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -6.07%E -5.10%K -31.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 22:04
Tipico (DE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.66%EV -0.989%E -0.210%K -0.267%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.34%EV -9.23%E -8.02%K -61.51%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-04 00:39
LowVig.ag🎯4.64I 21.55%NM 20.68%EV -2.25%E -0.486%K -0.619%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 79.32%EV -4.49%E -3.71%K -21.38%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-04 00:39
BetOnline.ag🎯4.64I 21.55%NM 20.68%EV -2.25%E -0.486%K -0.619%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 79.32%EV -4.49%E -3.71%K -21.38%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-04 00:40
Winamax (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -3.10%E -0.673%K -0.860%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -4.49%E -3.71%K -21.38%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-04 00:35
Marathon Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -3.10%E -0.673%K -0.860%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.28%E -4.40%K -26.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 00:39
Betr (AU)🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 20.73%EV -4.15%E -0.912%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -6.07%E -5.10%K -31.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 01:25
Betway🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -5.20%E -1.16%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -3.70%E -3.03%K -16.82%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-04 01:44
Bovada🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -5.20%E -1.16%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -3.70%E -3.03%K -16.82%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-04 00:48
ReBet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.20%E -1.16%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.49%E -3.71%K -21.38%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-04 00:39
Betsson🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.20%E -1.16%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.49%E -3.71%K -21.38%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-04 00:35
BoyleSports🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.20%E -1.16%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.28%E -4.40%K -26.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 00:25
888sport🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.20%E -1.16%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.28%E -4.40%K -26.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 00:35
BetUS🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.20%E -1.16%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.28%E -4.40%K -26.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-03 22:00
888sport (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.20%E -1.16%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.28%E -4.40%K -26.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 00:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.20%E -1.16%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.28%E -4.40%K -26.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 00:34
William Hill🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.20%E -1.16%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.28%E -4.40%K -26.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 00:34
betfred_uk🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -5.20%E -1.16%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -6.86%E -5.81%K -38.10%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-04 01:25
PMU (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -5.20%E -1.16%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.65%E -6.54%K -44.98%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-03 22:00
NetBet (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -5.20%E -1.16%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.65%E -6.54%K -44.98%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-04 00:24
1xBet🎯4.46I 22.42%NM 21.34%EV -6.04%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.66%EV -4.49%E -3.71%K -21.38%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 01:40
SportsBet🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 21.38%EV -6.26%E -1.41%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.62%EV -4.49%E -3.71%K -21.38%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-03 15:34
Fliff🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 21.10%EV -6.26%E -1.41%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.90%EV -6.07%E -5.10%K -31.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-04 00:39
FanDuel🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -7.31%E -1.66%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -3.70%E -3.03%K -16.82%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-03 15:34
BetMGM🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -7.31%E -1.66%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -5.28%E -4.40%K -26.40%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-03 21:50
LeoVegas🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -7.31%E -1.66%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -5.28%E -4.40%K -26.40%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-04 00:40
Fanatics🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -8.36%E -1.92%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -4.49%E -3.71%K -21.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 01:44
Sky Bet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -8.78%E -2.03%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -3.70%E -3.03%K -16.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-03 15:34
Paddy Power🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -8.78%E -2.03%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -5.28%E -4.40%K -26.40%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-03 15:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -8.78%E -2.03%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -5.28%E -4.40%K -26.40%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-03 21:50
Coral🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -8.78%E -2.03%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -5.28%E -4.40%K -26.40%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-03 21:50
BetAnything🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -9.42%E -2.19%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -3.70%E -3.03%K -16.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 00:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -9.42%E -2.19%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -5.28%E -4.40%K -26.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-04 00:39
NordicBet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -9.42%E -2.19%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -5.28%E -4.40%K -26.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-04 01:44
DraftKings🎯4.27I 23.42%NM 22.36%EV -10.05%E -2.35%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.64%EV -2.91%E -2.37%K -12.66%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 00:50
theScore Bet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -10.47%E -2.46%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -4.49%E -3.71%K -21.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-03 22:30
Neds🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -13.63%E -3.32%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -3.70%E -3.03%K -16.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-03 21:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -13.63%E -3.32%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -3.70%E -3.03%K -16.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-03 21:50
PlayUp🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -15.74%E -3.93%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -2.12%E -1.71%K -8.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 01:10
Dabble (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -15.74%E -3.93%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -2.12%E -1.71%K -8.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 01:10
TAB🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -15.74%E -3.93%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.70%E -3.03%K -16.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-04 00:03
Caesars🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -15.74%E -3.93%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.70%E -3.03%K -16.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 14:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -15.74%E -3.93%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.70%E -3.03%K -16.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-03 19:00
Bet Victor🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -15.74%E -3.93%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -5.28%E -4.40%K -26.40%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-03 22:20
betano_uk🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -15.74%E -3.93%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -5.28%E -4.40%K -26.40%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-03 22:29
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43%1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57%0.5%2026-08-04 01:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43%1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57%0.5%2026-08-04 01:35
Matchbook5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43%1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57%0.5%2026-08-04 01:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43%1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57%0.5%2026-08-04 01:35
Novig5.13I 19.49%NM 19.34%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.66%0.8%2026-08-04 01:25
ProphetX5.10I 19.61%NM 19.30%1.22I 81.97%NM 80.70%1.6%2026-08-04 01:40
Smarkets5.30I 18.87%NM 18.46%1.20I 83.33%NM 81.54%2.2%2026-08-04 01:40