Language:English
Alex Michelsen v Jan-Lennard Struff
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex Michelsen (Local)
Prediction 72.66%1.38fair odd
EV +6.08%
Edge +4.16%
Kelly +13.21%
Growth +0.803%
assuming max odds 1.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.82%72.20%72.49%75.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.291.291.4682.64%77.27%77.52%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jan-Lennard Struff (Visit)
Prediction 27.34%3.66fair odd
EV +3.36%
Edge +0.889%
Kelly +1.21%
Growth +0.041%
assuming max odds 3.78
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.00%27.80%27.51%35.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.693.483.503.7837.17%28.76%28.57%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex Michelsen (Local): 72.66%; Jan-Lennard Struff (Visit): 27.34%. For Alex Michelsen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.38. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.46, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.08%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.82%EV +6.08%E +4.16%K +13.21%G +0.803% | 2.69I 37.17%NM 35.18%EV -26.44%E -9.83%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38%EV +0.992%E +0.714%K +2.54%G +0.025% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62%EV -13.87%E -4.40%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV +0.265%E +0.192%K +0.699%G +0.002% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -15.23%E -4.91%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -0.461%E -0.337%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -17.97%E -5.99%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -3.37%E -2.53%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-04 01:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.82%EV -3.37%E -2.53%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 28.18%EV -7.30%E -2.15%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-04 01:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.37%E -2.53%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 01:08 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.09%E -3.10%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.66%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-03 23:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.09%E -3.10%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -8.40%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 01:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.09%E -3.10%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -8.40%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 01:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.09%E -3.10%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -8.40%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 01:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11%EV -4.82%E -3.68%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV +2.54%E +0.677%K +0.923%G +0.023% | 3.0% | 2026-08-04 00:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.06%EV -4.82%E -3.68%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.94%EV +2.27%E +0.606%K +0.827%G +0.019% | 3.1% | 2026-08-04 00:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.82%E -3.68%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -1.56%E -0.434%K -0.601%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-03 21:28 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.82%E -3.68%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-03 21:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -4.82%E -3.68%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-03 17:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.84%EV -5.55%E -4.27%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.16%EV +0.352%E +0.096%K +0.132%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 00:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.84%EV -5.55%E -4.27%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.16%EV +0.352%E +0.096%K +0.132%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 00:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.55%E -4.27%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 01:03 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.55%E -4.27%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.66%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-03 23:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.55%E -4.27%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.66%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-04 00:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -5.55%E -4.27%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -8.40%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-03 21:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -5.55%E -4.27%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -8.40%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-03 21:34 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.55%E -4.27%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-04 00:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -5.55%E -4.27%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -13.87%E -4.40%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV +1.17%E +0.317%K +0.434%G +0.005% | 4.5% | 2026-08-04 00:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -1.56%E -0.434%K -0.601%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-03 21:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-03 18:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 00:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-04 01:04 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-04 01:08 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-03 21:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -11.13%E -3.43%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-03 23:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -7.00%E -5.47%K -25.00%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -2.93%E -0.825%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-03 23:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -7.00%E -5.47%K -25.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-03 21:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -7.00%E -5.47%K -25.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-03 21:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.35%EV -7.00%E -5.47%K -25.00%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV -8.40%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-04 01:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.85%EV -7.73%E -6.08%K -28.62%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.15%EV +3.36%E +0.889%K +1.21%G +0.041% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.65%EV -7.73%E -6.08%K -28.62%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.35%EV +2.27%E +0.606%K +0.827%G +0.019% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 01:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -7.73%E -6.08%K -28.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -0.195%E -0.053%K -0.074%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -7.73%E -6.08%K -28.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -0.195%E -0.053%K -0.074%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -7.73%E -6.08%K -28.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -0.195%E -0.053%K -0.074%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -7.73%E -6.08%K -28.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -0.195%E -0.053%K -0.074%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -7.73%E -6.08%K -28.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -0.195%E -0.053%K -0.074%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -7.73%E -6.08%K -28.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -0.195%E -0.053%K -0.074%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -7.73%E -6.08%K -28.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -0.195%E -0.053%K -0.074%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -7.73%E -6.08%K -28.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -0.195%E -0.053%K -0.074%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -7.73%E -6.08%K -28.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-02 13:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -8.45%E -6.71%K -32.51%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -2.93%E -0.825%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -8.45%E -6.71%K -32.51%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -2.93%E -0.825%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -9.18%E -7.34%K -36.72%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +2.54%E +0.677%K +0.923%G +0.023% | 6.7% | 2026-08-04 00:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -9.18%E -7.34%K -36.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -1.56%E -0.434%K -0.601%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-04 00:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.96%EV -9.18%E -7.34%K -36.72%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -2.93%E -0.825%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.96%EV -9.18%E -7.34%K -36.72%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -2.93%E -0.825%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.00%EV -10.63%E -8.64%K -46.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-04 01:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 73.75%EV -12.09%E -9.99%K -57.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.43% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.57% | 0.3% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.43% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.57% | 0.3% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.43% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.57% | 0.3% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-08-04 00:30 |
| Novig◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.41% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.59% | 1.7% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.22% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.78% | 2.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 01:04 |
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