Langue:Français
Alex Michelsen v Jan-Lennard Struff
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Alex Michelsen (Local)
Prévision 72.66%1.38cote équitable
EV +6.08%
Avantage +4.16%
Kelly +13.21%
Croissance +0.803%
avec la cote maximale 1.46
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
64.82%72.20%72.49%75.00%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.211.291.291.4682.64%77.27%77.52%68.49%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Jan-Lennard Struff (Visiteur)
Prévision 27.34%3.66cote équitable
EV +3.36%
Avantage +0.889%
Kelly +1.21%
Croissance +0.041%
avec la cote maximale 3.78
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.00%27.80%27.51%35.18%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.693.483.503.7837.17%28.76%28.57%26.46%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Alex Michelsen (Local) : 72.66% ; Jan-Lennard Struff (Visiteur) : 27.34%. Pour Alex Michelsen (Local), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 1.38. 3 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 1.46, soit une espérance positive de +6.08%.
Cotes des opérateurs (60 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local ▼ | Visiteur | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.82%EV +6.08%E +4.16%K +13.21%G +0.803% | 2.69I 37.17%NM 35.18%EV -26.44%E -9.83%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38%EV +0.992%E +0.714%K +2.54%G +0.025% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62%EV -13.87%E -4.40%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV +0.265%E +0.192%K +0.699%G +0.002% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -15.23%E -4.91%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -0.461%E -0.337%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -17.97%E -5.99%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -3.37%E -2.53%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-04 01:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.82%EV -3.37%E -2.53%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 28.18%EV -7.30%E -2.15%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-04 01:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.37%E -2.53%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 01:08 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.09%E -3.10%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.66%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-03 23:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.09%E -3.10%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -8.40%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 01:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.09%E -3.10%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -8.40%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 01:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.09%E -3.10%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -8.40%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 01:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11%EV -4.82%E -3.68%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV +2.54%E +0.677%K +0.923%G +0.023% | 3.0% | 2026-08-04 00:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.06%EV -4.82%E -3.68%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.94%EV +2.27%E +0.606%K +0.827%G +0.019% | 3.1% | 2026-08-04 00:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.82%E -3.68%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -1.56%E -0.434%K -0.601%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-03 21:28 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.82%E -3.68%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-03 21:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -4.82%E -3.68%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-03 17:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.84%EV -5.55%E -4.27%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.16%EV +0.352%E +0.096%K +0.132%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 00:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.84%EV -5.55%E -4.27%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.16%EV +0.352%E +0.096%K +0.132%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 00:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.55%E -4.27%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 01:03 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.55%E -4.27%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.66%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-03 23:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.55%E -4.27%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.66%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-04 00:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -5.55%E -4.27%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -8.40%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-03 21:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -5.55%E -4.27%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -8.40%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-03 21:34 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.55%E -4.27%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-04 00:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -5.55%E -4.27%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -13.87%E -4.40%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV +1.17%E +0.317%K +0.434%G +0.005% | 4.5% | 2026-08-04 00:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -1.56%E -0.434%K -0.601%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-03 21:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-03 18:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 00:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-04 01:04 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-04 01:08 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-03 21:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -11.13%E -3.43%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-03 23:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -7.00%E -5.47%K -25.00%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -2.93%E -0.825%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-03 23:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -7.00%E -5.47%K -25.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-03 21:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -7.00%E -5.47%K -25.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-03 21:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.35%EV -7.00%E -5.47%K -25.00%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV -8.40%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-04 01:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.85%EV -7.73%E -6.08%K -28.62%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.15%EV +3.36%E +0.889%K +1.21%G +0.041% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.65%EV -7.73%E -6.08%K -28.62%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.35%EV +2.27%E +0.606%K +0.827%G +0.019% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 01:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -7.73%E -6.08%K -28.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -0.195%E -0.053%K -0.074%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -7.73%E -6.08%K -28.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -0.195%E -0.053%K -0.074%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -7.73%E -6.08%K -28.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -0.195%E -0.053%K -0.074%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -7.73%E -6.08%K -28.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -0.195%E -0.053%K -0.074%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -7.73%E -6.08%K -28.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -0.195%E -0.053%K -0.074%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -7.73%E -6.08%K -28.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -0.195%E -0.053%K -0.074%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -7.73%E -6.08%K -28.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -0.195%E -0.053%K -0.074%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -7.73%E -6.08%K -28.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -0.195%E -0.053%K -0.074%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -7.73%E -6.08%K -28.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-02 13:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -8.45%E -6.71%K -32.51%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -2.93%E -0.825%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -8.45%E -6.71%K -32.51%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -2.93%E -0.825%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -9.18%E -7.34%K -36.72%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +2.54%E +0.677%K +0.923%G +0.023% | 6.7% | 2026-08-04 00:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -9.18%E -7.34%K -36.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -1.56%E -0.434%K -0.601%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-04 00:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.96%EV -9.18%E -7.34%K -36.72%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -2.93%E -0.825%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.96%EV -9.18%E -7.34%K -36.72%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -2.93%E -0.825%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.00%EV -10.63%E -8.64%K -46.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -4.30%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-04 01:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 73.75%EV -12.09%E -9.99%K -57.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (7)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.43% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.57% | 0.3% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.43% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.57% | 0.3% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.43% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.57% | 0.3% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-08-04 00:30 |
| Novig◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.41% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.59% | 1.7% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.22% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.78% | 2.1% | 2026-08-04 01:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 01:04 |