Language:English
Martin Landaluce v Lorenzo Musetti
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Martin Landaluce (Local)
Prediction 22.67%4.41fair odd
EV +4.49%
Edge +0.975%
Kelly +1.24%
Growth +0.056%
assuming max odds 4.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.96%22.77%22.90%25.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.094.004.6127.78%24.48%25.00%21.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lorenzo Musetti (Visit)
Prediction 77.33%1.29fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -2.03%
Kelly -9.85%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.07%77.23%77.10%79.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.231.231.2684.75%81.18%81.30%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Martin Landaluce (Local): 22.67%; Lorenzo Musetti (Visit): 77.33%. For Martin Landaluce (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.41. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.49%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.61I 21.69%NM 21.06%EV +4.49%E +0.975%K +1.24%G +0.056% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.94%EV -4.88%E -3.97%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-14 10:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV +4.27%E +0.928%K +1.19%G +0.051% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04%EV -5.65%E -4.63%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-14 10:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.47%EV +2.00%E +0.444%K +0.571%G +0.011% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.53%EV -4.88%E -3.97%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.41I 22.68%NM 21.95%EV -0.040%E -0.009%K -0.012%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.05%EV -4.11%E -3.31%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-14 10:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -0.267%E -0.061%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -5.65%E -4.63%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-14 10:46 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.38I 22.83%NM 21.79%EV -0.720%E -0.164%K -0.213%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.21%EV -5.65%E -4.63%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-14 10:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.34I 23.04%NM 22.22%EV -1.63%E -0.375%K -0.487%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.78%EV -4.11%E -3.31%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-14 10:37 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.34I 23.04%NM 22.22%EV -1.63%E -0.375%K -0.487%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.78%EV -4.11%E -3.31%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-14 10:38 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -1.85%E -0.428%K -0.557%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -5.65%E -4.63%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 10:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -1.85%E -0.428%K -0.557%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -5.65%E -4.63%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 10:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -2.53%E -0.589%K -0.768%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.65%E -4.63%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-14 10:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -2.53%E -0.589%K -0.768%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.65%E -4.63%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-14 10:51 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -2.53%E -0.589%K -0.768%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -8.75%E -7.41%K -48.59%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-14 10:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -3.67%E -0.863%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -4.11%E -3.31%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-14 10:16 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -3.67%E -0.863%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -7.20%E -6.00%K -36.00%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-14 10:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -4.80%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.88%E -3.97%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 10:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -4.80%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.65%E -4.63%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -4.80%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.65%E -4.63%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -4.80%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.65%E -4.63%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-14 10:38 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -4.80%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -6.43%E -5.31%K -30.60%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -5.93%E -1.43%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -4.11%E -3.31%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-14 10:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.86%EV -5.93%E -1.43%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.14%EV -4.88%E -3.97%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-14 10:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -5.93%E -1.43%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -5.65%E -4.63%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -7.07%E -1.72%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.88%E -3.97%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-14 10:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -7.07%E -1.72%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -5.65%E -4.63%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-14 10:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -7.07%E -1.72%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -5.65%E -4.63%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-14 10:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -7.07%E -1.72%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -5.65%E -4.63%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-14 10:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -7.07%E -1.72%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -5.65%E -4.63%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-14 10:38 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.31%EV -7.52%E -1.84%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.69%EV -4.11%E -3.31%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-14 10:51 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -9.33%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.33%E -2.67%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-14 10:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -9.33%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.33%E -2.67%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -9.33%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.33%E -2.67%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -9.33%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.33%E -2.67%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -9.33%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.33%E -2.67%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -9.33%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.11%E -3.31%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -9.33%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.65%E -4.63%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.33%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.20%E -6.00%K -36.00%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-14 10:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.33%E -2.33%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.20%E -6.00%K -36.00%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.47%E -2.65%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.33%E -2.67%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.47%E -2.65%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.33%E -2.67%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.47%E -2.65%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.33%E -2.67%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.47%E -2.65%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.33%E -2.67%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 10:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.47%E -2.65%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.33%E -2.67%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.47%E -2.65%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.33%E -2.67%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.47%E -2.65%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.33%E -2.67%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 10:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.47%E -2.65%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.33%E -2.67%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.47%E -2.65%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.33%E -2.67%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.47%E -2.65%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.33%E -2.67%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.47%E -2.65%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.33%E -2.67%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.47%E -2.65%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.33%E -2.67%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.47%E -2.65%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.33%E -2.67%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -11.60%E -2.97%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -5.65%E -4.63%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-14 10:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -11.60%E -2.97%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -5.65%E -4.63%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -13.87%E -3.65%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -4.11%E -3.31%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -13.87%E -3.65%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -4.11%E -3.31%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -13.87%E -3.65%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -5.65%E -4.63%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -13.87%E -3.65%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -5.65%E -4.63%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -15.00%E -4.00%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -4.88%E -3.97%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -15.00%E -4.00%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.65%E -4.63%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-14 10:18 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -18.40%E -5.11%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -2.56%E -2.03%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-14 10:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.80% | 1.1% | 2026-04-14 10:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.47% | 1.5% | 2026-04-14 10:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.47% | 1.5% | 2026-04-14 10:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.47% | 1.5% | 2026-04-14 10:51 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.47% | 1.5% | 2026-04-14 10:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.74% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.26% | 2.6% | 2026-04-14 10:42 |
| Novig◎ | 4.63I 21.60%NM 20.99% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.01% | 2.9% | 2026-04-14 10:46 |