Language:English
Lorenzo Sonego v Andrey Rublev
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lorenzo Sonego (Local)
Prediction 23.99%4.17fair odd
EV +7.94%
Edge +1.76%
Kelly +2.27%
Growth +0.180%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.33%24.16%24.09%28.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.893.924.5030.30%25.69%25.51%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Andrey Rublev (Visit)
Prediction 76.01%1.32fair odd
EV -1.94%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -6.69%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.90%75.84%75.91%78.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.241.241.2983.33%80.60%80.65%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lorenzo Sonego (Local): 23.99%; Andrey Rublev (Visit): 76.01%. For Lorenzo Sonego (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.17. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.94%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +7.94%E +1.76%K +2.27%G +0.180% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-16 11:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV +3.86%E +0.891%K +1.16%G +0.045% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -8.78%E -7.32%K -43.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.32I 23.15%NM 22.02%EV +3.62%E +0.837%K +1.09%G +0.039% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.98%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +0.740%E +0.176%K +0.231%G +0.002% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-16 08:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.57%EV -0.460%E -0.111%K -0.146%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.43%EV -2.70%E -2.11%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -1.66%E -0.405%K -0.535%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -1.66%E -0.405%K -0.535%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -1.66%E -0.405%K -0.535%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -1.66%E -0.405%K -0.535%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -1.66%E -0.405%K -0.535%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -1.66%E -0.405%K -0.535%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-16 11:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -1.66%E -0.405%K -0.535%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -8.02%E -6.63%K -38.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.76%EV -3.82%E -0.952%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.24%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-16 11:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.06%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-16 11:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.06%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.06%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.06%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 07:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.06%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.06%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 11:44 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.06%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.06%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 10:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.06%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.06%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.99I 25.06%NM 24.14%EV -4.30%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.86%EV -3.46%E -2.73%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-16 10:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.99I 25.06%NM 24.14%EV -4.30%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.86%EV -3.46%E -2.73%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-16 10:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.26%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 11:44 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.26%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 11:44 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -5.26%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.70%EV -8.78%E -7.32%K -43.91%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.18%EV -5.98%E -1.52%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.82%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-16 11:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -6.46%E -1.66%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -6.46%E -1.66%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-16 11:44 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -7.66%E -1.99%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 11:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -7.66%E -1.99%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-15 15:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -7.66%E -1.99%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-16 11:36 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -8.85%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -8.85%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-16 11:44 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -8.85%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -8.85%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -8.85%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 11:44 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -8.85%E -2.33%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.46%E -2.73%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 11:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -5.74%E -4.63%K -23.93%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-16 11:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -10.05%E -2.68%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -6.50%E -5.29%K -28.27%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-16 11:44 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -11.25%E -3.04%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -2.70%E -2.11%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -11.25%E -3.04%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -2.70%E -2.11%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -11.25%E -3.04%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-16 11:44 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.68I 27.17%NM 24.90%EV -11.73%E -3.19%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.10%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -13.65%E -3.79%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -3.46%E -2.73%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -13.65%E -3.79%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -3.46%E -2.73%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -13.65%E -3.79%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -3.46%E -2.73%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -13.65%E -3.79%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-16 08:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -13.65%E -3.79%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -4.22%E -3.35%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-16 08:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -16.05%E -4.59%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -4.98%E -3.99%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -17.25%E -5.00%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.88%EV -7.26%E -5.95%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -20.85%E -6.32%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -1.94%E -1.51%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 0.9% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.60% | 1.5% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.47% | 1.5% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.22% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.78% | 2.5% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90% | 5.2% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |
| Novig◎ | 4.12I 24.27%NM 22.70% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.30% | 6.9% | 2026-04-16 11:45 |